Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Aeroflot SSJ100 crash at Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 10, 2019, ©. Leeham News: An Aeroflot Sukhoi Superjet 100 crash-landed Sunday at Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport and burst into flames.
We shall look closer at the likely cause of the accident, which involves the SSJ100 Fly-By-Wire (FBW) control system working in Direct law.
The SSJ100 involved in the accident. Source: Wikipedia.
FAA prepared to act alone to lift MAX grounding
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Introduction
May 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing hopes that the Federal Aviation Administration will lift its grounding order for the 737 MAX as early as next month. It is prepared to act alone, LNA has confirmed, rather than waiting for a consensus from global regulations.
Some airlines and aerospace financial analysts, as well as others like LNA, consultants and observers, wonder if global regulators will agree with the FAA or move more slowly.
The FAA already initially concluded simulator training won’t be necessary for pilots to understand the now-infamous MCAS system and its upgrades. After one round of comments for the proposal, which is common in the FAA process, the agency is accepting a second round of comments.
Transport Canada, however, already indicated it wants simulator training before lifting the grounding order affecting nearly four dozen MAXes at Canada’s two largest airlines, Air Canada and Westjet.
Other agencies haven’t publicly weighed in.
There were some reports the FAA may wait for all regulators to agree before lifting the grounding order.
But LNA confirmed the FAA will act on its own review, while fully briefing global regulators, who will make their own decisions.
Summary
- “Regulatory power grab” in focus, writes aerospace analyst.
- Some hope for early lifting of grounding order, others don’t see return to service until September.
- Is the Joint Authorities Technical Review panel the precursor to a new global regulator for certification?
Everett-based DC-3 leaves Saturday for D-Day, Berlin Air Lift celebrations
May 9, 2019, © Leeham News: D-Day is June 6, 1944. The start of the Berlin Air Lift is June 24, 1948.
The Historic Flight Foundation (HFF), located at Paine Field, Saturday afternoon embarks on a multi-week trip from Paine to England in its historic Douglas DC-3.
This Douglas DC-3, owned by the Historic Flight Foundation, saw service in World War II in the Pacific theatre. It leaves Saturday for Europe to participate with about 30 other DC-3s/C-47s in ceremonies for the D-Day invasion of Europe and the Berlin Air Lift. Photo by Scott Hamilton.
The trip includes 54 flying hours, event and rest stops along the way and rendeveouing with 30 more DC-3s/C-47s, D-Day events in France and Air Lift events in Berlin.
HFF’s DC-3 didn’t participate in the European theatre of war, but it is an historical airplane. It was in the Pacific theatre, operated by CNAC, a Chinese airline in which Pan American World Airways had a financial interest. The airplane is decked out in period Pan Am colors.
- 9am Saturday, May 11, HFF has a “fly day” as a prelude to the 3pm departure of the DC-3 for Europe. Static and aerials displays are planned. Rides are possible. HFF is on the west side of Paine Field, with the entrance on Bernie Webber Drive.
For HFF founder John Sessions, this trip is especially significant. He was nearly killed in the crash of another HFF plane he was piloting last August at the Abbottsford Air Show. His left leg was amputated below the knee.
Now fitted with a prosthetic lower leg and foot, Sessions returned to flight status just a week ago after going through flight testing, including on the DC-3.
The decline and fall of Bombardier
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Introduction
May 6, 2019, © Leeham News: Bombardier was once the leader in providing regional airliners to the industry.
Today, it’s all but exited the industry.
With the announcement that its Belfast manufacturing facility and a smaller one in Morocco are for sale, only the CRJ regional airliner remains.
Expectations are that that, too, will be gone before too long. Bombardier has been weighing its “strategic options” of the CRJ since last year, when it agreed to sell the Q400 turboprop to Canada’s Viking Air. This deal is to close mid-year.
Here’s a look back how Bombardier went from a leader to an also-ran.
Summary
- Bombardier pioneered the regional jetliner and dominated the turboprop sector.
- Embraer surpassed the former and ATR the latter.
- A bold move to jump into the lower end of the market dominated by Airbus and Boeing, coupled with bad management and over-extending the balance sheet, nearly bankrupted the company.
Pontifications: Rebuilding the MAX and Boeing brands
By Scott Hamilton
May 6, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing has a big job ahead of it to restore faith in the 737 MAX with flight crews and the flying public.
Recertification is still weeks or perhaps months away. The return to service may be anywhere from July to August or even longer, depending on how global regulators proceed with review and approval of the revised MCAS software and pilot training.
Pilots at airlines seem split whether a “simple” computer training protocol is sufficient or whether a flight simulator training is required.
Let’s set all this aside on the safe assumption this will work itself out, whether sooner or later.
So, the question then becomes: how does Boeing repair the MAX brand—and its own.
Read more
Bjorn’s Corner: Bombardier selling off unique CSeries technology
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 06, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Bombardier’s CEO, Alain Bellemare announced yesterday the company will streamline to a Train and Business jet company.
This means there is no longer place for a Commercial aircraft division nor its Aerostructures parts in Belfast and Morocco serving these aircraft.
Figure 1. The CSeries/A220 Carbon Fiber Reinforced Polymer (CFRP) wing. Source: Bombardier.
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Bombardier to sell Belfast wing factory, dumping key parts of profitable Aerostructures unit
May 2, 2019, © Leeham News: Bombardier today reported its first quarter earnings, which were lower than originally expected by analysts and previewed last week.
But the big news are plans to sell its Belfast, Northern Ireland, wing factory and its aerospace facility in Morocco.
The Belfast plant produces wings for the Airbus A220 (nee C Series). This plant and the Morocco facility were reorganized previously into an Aerostructures unit that has been profitable.
Bombardier now labels these plants as non-core to its business.
The CRJ program, which is for sale, has been put into a new Bombardier Aviation business unit that includes the business jets.
Boeing customer compensation for MAX already at $1bn and climbing, estimates aviation lawyer
May 2, 2019, © Leeham News, New York: Boeing faces huge claims from airlines with grounded 737 MAXes, the amount of which will depend on the time the airplanes are out of service, an aviation lawyer tells LNA.
The lawyer, who is not involved in any litigation from the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines MAX 8 crashes, has reviewed scores of Boeing purchase contracts in the ordinary course of his practice. It’s based on terms and conditions under the Service Life clause that he concludes Boeing could face about $1bn in claims for a grounding lasting five months—or until mid-August, as three key US airlines estimate before the MAX returns to service in the US.
The amount climbs the longer the groundings are in place but could be smaller if the global grounding is lifted sooner.
MAX impact on Boeing NMA beginning to emerge
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Introduction
May 2, 2019, © Leeham News: There was indication last week Boeing’s decision on whether to approve the New Midmarket Airplane program will slide.
CEO Dennis Muilenburg said on the company’s first quarter earnings call the focus is returning the grounded 737 MAX to service.
A decision on authorizing the sales force to offer the NMA for sale is ambiguous. For the first time, targeting 2025 for entry into service appears to be acknowledged as iffy.
The statements confirm LNA’s analysis and our reports that the 2025 EIS is unlike.
Summary
- Advanced manufacturing is key to NMA production, but all elements need to fall into place—a “production moonshot.”
- For more than a year, LNA and others predicted the NMA EIS in 2025 is not possible.
- Engines won’t be ready by 2025 EIS. See here and here from March 2018.
- Latest woes from CFM on the LEAP add to uncertainty; CFM is the favorite for NMA. See here.
- Engine selection by Boeing put off until after MAX problems solved, grounding lifted.
- Authority to Offer for sale at Paris Air Show unlikely and 2025 EIS now in doubt.
Ascend takes a close look at MAX values, future
April 30, 2019: Aviation consultancy Ascend took a close look at the Boeing 737 MAX in a 30 minute Youtube video.
The consultancy begins and ends the video talking about other airplanes, but the middle focuses on the MAX, lease rates, values and considerations about the grounding.
The video is below.