Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Why Electric Cars work and Airliners don’t
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 7, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner I wrote: “The reason electric cars work and airliners don’t is the Sky lacks Stoplights“.
The discussion was part of my previous series on Electric aircraft, but it was in the comment section. Here is a more exhaustive run through of the main reasons.
Figure 1. The Tesla electric car is a functioning replacement for a combustion engine car. Source: Tesla.
How useful is an Airbus A321XLR?
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 6, 2019, © Leeham News: There are growing rumors Airbus will launch the extended range A321XLR at the Paris Air Show on June 17th. The aircraft will get more fuel and takeoff weight to enable an A321 to fly longer routes, penetrating deeper into the US and Europe for a trans-Atlantic use case.
Operators can now choose between longer routes than for the A321LR or the same routes while carrying more passengers. We use our performance model to find out the limits of this trade.
Summary:
- The A321XLR turns the trans-Atlantic capability of the A321LR from coast to coast opportunities into a mid-US to mid-Europe capability.
- As the seat mile cost of the A321LR and A321XLR are competitive with the A330neo and Boeing 787, the A321XLR opens for thin and long service to several new city pairs.
Stabilizing 737 production is Boeing’s priority, CFO says
By Dan Catchpole
June 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is focused on smoothing out 737 production at 42 aircraft a month for now. Any decision to returning production to 52/month is well down the road, Boeing CFO Greg Smith said Wednesday at the UBS Global Industrials and Transportation Conference in New York.
“It’s going to be all about stability,” Smith said. “And stability is not just about on schedule but ensuring that we’ve got predictability and accuracy that’s more finite than what it’s been in the past.”
The company had planned to step up production from 52/month to 57/month in June or July. Boeing slowed down production of the workhorse single-aisle in April after a second 737 MAX crashed shortly after takeoff. At the time, it cited the accidents as the reason for slowing 737 production. However, the aerospace giant already had been struggling with production disruptions prior to the crashes. The biggest headache came from slow deliveries from engine-maker CFM, as LNA reported in April.
Industry insiders at the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference in April said Boeing already planned to hit 57/month in September. However, at Wednesday’s investor conference, Smith’s sidestepped any question about when 737 production could reach that pace.
Mitsubishi in negotiations with Bombardier to acquire the CRJ program (Updated)
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 5, 2019, © Leeham News.: The Air Current broke the news earlier today Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) is negotiating with Bombardier to buy the CRJ program.
BBC has got comments from both companies confirming the discussions, with cautions nothing is settled and it can still result in a no deal. Should it happen it would make a lot of sense for both parties.
UPDATE: Bombardier has issued a statement confirming the discussions, see below.
I-90 Conference: Additive manufacturing is about to change everything
By Bryan Corliss
June 5, 2019, © Leeham News, Coeur d’Alene (ID) — Within a decade, 3-D printing will begin to revolutionize the way companies fabricate and assemble aircraft–and just about everything else humans manufacture.
That was the message delivered by panelists at the I-90 Aerospace Corridor Conference & Expo.
The conference, for aerospace companies in eastern Oregon and Washington, northern Idaho and western Montana, was held May 27-28 in Coeur d’Alene (ID).
Companies are experimenting with the current generation of the technology now, said David Minerath, the president of Quest Integration, based in Post Falls (ID), whose company sells 3-D modeling and printing technology to manufacturers.
“We do have a lot of printers at aerospace companies, but they’re very sensitive about where these parts are going,” Minerath said.
Costs are coming down, he said. With units costing as little as $2,000 apiece, it’s possible for companies to stack five together in a room running parts.
“You’re getting close to low-rate production,” Minerath said.
And it’s easy, he said. “It’s like you’re doing ‘file, print’ to your laser printer.”
- “Additive” technology literally the opposite of current process
- Idaho company has patents on fast-curing process
- Will allow changes in how parts are produced and assembled
2019 Paris Air Show Preview
By Vincent Valery
Subscription Required
June 3, 2019, © Leeham News: The 2019 Paris Air Show kicks off in two weeks at the Le Bourget Exhibition Center.
In this preview, we will go over what to expect from commercial aircraft OEMs.
Pontifications: 50×2
By Scott Hamilton
June 3, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus and Embraer are 50 years old this year.
Airbus broke out the party hats last Wednesday. It arranged a formation flying of all its in-production aircraft, including the Beluga XL. It launched a website microsite with its history. A new book, Airbus, The First 50 Years, has been issued. A celebration is planned for the Paris Air Show.
Embraer’s anniversary is Aug. 19, so at this point, its party plans haven’t been solidified, but there will likely be something at the Paris Air Show. Embraer plans to have its new specially painted E195-E2 at the air show.
Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, the first fall on the Hype curve
Bjorn’s Corner
May 31, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Last week the new Airbus CTO, Grazia Vittadini, said we should not expect electric aircraft anytime soon when presenting at Airbus Innovation days. What is realistic is hybrid developments, not battery-based designs.
After having made the basic checks about Electric aircraft in my Corner series 18 months ago, this was music to my ears. Finally, someone was curbing expectations.
Figure 1. The Gartner technology hype curve. We are somewhere in the first peak. Source: Gartner.
Boeing CEO says steady progress being made on getting 737 MAX back into the air
By Dan Catchpole
May 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg said Wednesday steady progress is being made on getting the 737 MAX back in the air following two devastating crashes within a few months of each other. He stopped short of giving a specific time frame, though.
Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg
However, a spokesman for the International Air Transport Association said the same day that the trade group does not expect the MAX to be back in service before mid-August.
Speaking at the Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Muilenburg struck an upbeat tone overall and called the crashes a “defining moment” for Boeing. However, he did not indicate that Boeing intends any major changes as a result, and he expressed confidence in the company’s design and certification processes. Though, he did not shut the door to making changes as a result of lessons learned in the wake of the crash.
Muilenburg insisted that the MAX challenges will not affect entry into service for either the 777X in 2021 or the New Midsize Airplane (NMA) in 2025. He also discussed changes to the 737 supply chain, resumption of deliveries and future production rates for the popular single-aisle airplane.
Airbus’ A220 gets increased range next year
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
May 30, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus announced an increase in Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) for its A220 range last week. With the improvement, the A220s should fly up to 3,400nm when the increased MTOW is available from 2H 2020.
Like the last time when we wrote about the A220 and its range versus other Airbus single-aisles, this is a bit of Apples and Oranges. Just about everything around how the range of the A220 is measured changed. When we put the new data into our performance model, a very different range picture popped out than the one given by Airbus.
Summary:
- Airbus change the rule set by which it measures the range of the A220 to the less stringent Airbus single-aisle rule-set. Together with a future increase of the MTOW, this will increase the range of the A220.
- It also changed the seating. This was to curb the range of the A220-100 and to hide an emerging fuel limitation of the A220-300.