Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- AIN Media Group Agrees to Acquire Leeham News & Analysis June 17, 2025
- Five for Five: Air India crash points to systemic problems at Boeing that CEO Ortberg must fix June 15, 2025
- Airbus sees Boeing as medium-term competitor, with Comac next June 14, 2025
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 5
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 18, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption, maintenance, and airway/airport fees scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we now examine is the crew cost, where especially the flight crew cost development is troublesome, as pilots changed jobs during the COVID lull or retired early. When air traffic now rebounds, the lack of pilots drives wages and thus costs to new record levels.
Figure 1. The Heart Aerospace 30-seat ES-30 electric airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary:
- The availability of flight crews is a major problem in the US market. It will spread to other geographies as air traffic picks up after COVID-19.
- The scaling of crew costs per transported passenger is unfavorable for smaller aircraft.
Pontifications: Union hypocrisy over Skywest, JSX airlines
By Scott Hamilton
May 16, 2023, © Leeham News: “We are also concerned about elevated emissions and increased airspace congestion. To fit into the regulatory gap it occupies, the aircraft are reconfigured to seat no more than 30 passengers, on regional jets designed originally to hold up to 50 passengers. This model generates more intensive emissions per passenger and in busy markets with congested airspace, the model further strains the already challenged and under-staffed air traffic control system.”
So says the US Air Line Pilots Association and a bunch of other unions in a May 5 letter to the Department of Transportation, the US Department of Labor, the Federal Aviation Administration and the Transportation Security Administration.
The group wrote a three page letter pissing on plans by Skywest Airlines to launch a small charter airline under Part 135 of the FAA rules that allows pilots with fewer than 1,500 hours to carry passengers. Skywest is pursuing this because of the nationwide pilot shortage. Indeed, the shortage is global, but it’s especially acute with US regional airlines—which ALPA has been trying to diminish for decades Skywest wants to reconfigure Mitsubishi CRJ200s, a 50-passenger airplanes, into a 30-seat aircraft.
Part 135 carriers are limited to 30 passengers and provide what essentially is scheduled airline service but which are technically charter operations.
The unions spend much of their three page letter taking on JSX Airlines, which has a successful Part 135 operation using 45-seat Embraer E145s configured for 30 passengers. Its operations are migrating across the southern US.
The paragraph cited above is full of union hypocrisy, especially that of ALPA. Here’s why.
Growing Opposition to ALPA’s Attack on Regionals
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Kathryn B. Creedy
Analysis
May 15, 2023, © Leeham News: Using the same tired arguments, the Air Line Pilots Association (ALPA) on May 5 urged the Department of Transportation to reject SkyWest’s year-old proposal to create a Part 135 public charter under Part 380 of the Department’s regulations to serve Essential Air Service (EAS) markets.
Credit: Republic Airways
ALPA, in a letter co-signed by nine other unions, claimed SkyWest Charter is a backhanded attempt to bypass the 1,500-hour pilot experience rule. The airline says its proposal is to continue serving most of its EAS points under the same regulations governing other EAS carriers. Further, it attacked the public charter rule objecting to JSX operations, a catalyst for engaging the business aviation against the union.
ALPA may be skating on thin ice, not realizing the 1,500-hour rule is increasingly irrelevant given statements on Capitol Hill favoring pilot training reform and the popularity of the EAS program among legislators.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 12. Airframe efficiency improvement
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 12, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article New aircraft technologies. Part 12P. Airframe efficiency improvement. The article discusses the different drag types that affect an airframe, their magnitudes, and the physics behind them. Airframe efficiency improvements are about reducing these drags.
Figure 1. The drag types that affect our single-aisle airliners. Source: Leeham Co.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 12P. Airframe efficiency improvement
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 12, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 12. Airframe efficiency improvement. It discusses in detail the next-generation airframe improvements we can expect. We start with detailing the size of airframe inefficiency for today’s airframes, then look at the areas we can improve.
The Small Airliner Problem, Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
May 11, 2023, © Leeham News: In our series about the viability of the business plans for small airliners (nine to 50 seats), we have covered how energy/fuel consumption and maintenance scales with the size of the airliner.
The cost factor we examine today is the cost of using the airport and airways infrastructure. Airlines pay for landing plus parking at airports and for using their passenger facilities. The airlines also pay for using the Air Traffic Control (ATC) infrastructure when flying the routes.
Each airport and national airway system have their own fee structures. We check how these scale with aircraft size.
Figure 1. The TECNAM P2021 piston prop airliner is also offered in an electric version called P-Volt. Source: TECNAM.
Summary:
- Airway fees scale differently per transported passenger to the airport fees.
- Overall, airport and airway fees are not proportional to carried passengers on a route.
Pontifications: Selling engines for profit, not as loss leaders
By Scott Hamilton
May 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Last week, I provided an overarching view of the business model the engine makers used for decades to sell their engines and services to the airlines and leasing companies. Today, we discuss this in more detail and move to other issues facing engine makers as well.
Aviation Week’s MRO Americas last month was the venue for the engine panel.
Related article
The panelists include two from the manufacturers, Becky Johnson, I’m the Director of Marketing for CFM commercial programs at GE Aerospace, and Sam Raby, who is Associate Director at Pratt & Whitney for aftermarket marketing and strategy. Two other panelists were from the MRO sector: Russ Shelton, president of GA Telesis Engine Services, and Sebastian Torhorst, Head of Sales for Energy Services for the Americas for Lufthansa Technik.
As LNA wrote last week, the business model relies on selling engines at a steep, steep discount—sometimes up to 80%, and in rare instances, the engine maker gave (as in free) engines to customers. In either case, the quid pro quo was to enter into long-term service contracts for parts and maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO). Deeply discounted sales meant it could take 10-15 years for the engine makers to recover development costs.
GTF’s troubled history hurting future orders
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
May 8, 2023, © Leeham News: India’s GoFirst Airlines filed for bankruptcy last week. The carrier pointed to around 29 of its 50 Pratt & Whitney Geared TurboFan-powered Airbus A320neos being grounded as the reason.
The aircraft have been grounded for months. Despite negotiations with PW and a favorable arbitration ruling, GoFirst says PW failed to provide replacement engines. As a result, GoFirst paid about $196m in lease rates for the grounded aircraft, without being able to fly them for revenue.
Lufthansa Group last week complained that a third of its Swiss Airbus A220 fleet, also powered by the GTF, are likewise grounded with technical issues. As LNA previously reported, Air Baltic, Egyptair and Air Senegal also have A220s grounded. Iraqi Airlines has some A220s that are grounded. And now there’s news that Embraer E195-E2s at KLM’s regional airline are also grounded due to GTF issues.
India’s Indigo Airlines also has a large number of A320neos grounded with GTF problems. About 11% of the nearly 3,000 A320neos in service are grounded or fly one a week, an Aviation Week analysis revealed.
PW’s reputation was already badly damaged before the GoFirst bankruptcy. However, an LNA analysis shows that forward orders for engines on the A320neo already were suffering.
Summary
- CFM’s LEAP has a consistently larger market share, boosted by exclusivity on Boeing 737 MAX.
- Initially PW won more orders for A321neo; CFM has overtaken in the order backlog.
- Including A220 (exclusive GTF power) and MAX, plus neo split, CFM’s in-service market share is 66% to 34%.
- But going forward, CFM has 60% of the backlog across all types to PW’s 19%–with 22% of the A320neo family orders undecided on engines.
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Embraer reports first-quarter losses but says production will increase
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By Bryan Corliss
May 5, 2023 © Leeham News – Embraer on Thursday reported a loss in what typically is a slow quarter for the Brazilian jet-maker.
However, executives talked up plans for production ramp-ups and ongoing sales campaigns as they pointed toward growth in future quarters.
“We are on track and we are going to get there,” CEO Francisco Gomes Neto said.
- Deliveries up year-over-year
- Supply chain ‘still challenging’
- 11 active campaigns involving 200 jets
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 11. Airframe.
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 5, 2023, ©. Leeham News: In our series on the different technologies available when developing next-generation airliners, we have covered the fuselage configuration and engine options.
Now we turn to airframe technologies. We will look at different airframe architectures, their advantages, and disadvantages. To support the discussion, we will model the different variants in our Airliner Performance and Cost model to understand their characteristics.
Figure 1. The Boeing truss-braced wing is a candidate for the next Heart of the Market airliner. Source: Boeing.