Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
Pontifications: Do you really want the Jetsons zipping around?
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 24, 2023, © Leeham News: “For those of you old enough to remember, this is the Jetsons. This is the dream. This is what everybody would love to do.”
This cartoon is what former Boeing CEO Phil Condit used to segway into the hot topic of Urban Air Mobility vehicles (UAM). A cartoon is an apt illustration of UAMs.
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You walk out your front door, climb into the vehicle, and off you go. “All of a sudden, it looks like you can do that,” Condit said. Condit made his remarks on Jan. 9 at the University of Washington aerospace class.
Today’s Urban Air Mobility concepts hark back to the 1960s cartoon series, The Jetsons.
There is a concept called Air One, a battery-powered two-place UAM that has folding wings and a folding structure for the rotors. It fits in the garage. It uses a landing pad in front of the house. “This is a step to the Jetsons. What’s the problem?” Condit posited. “Well, there are a number of them.”
The advertisement shows Air One has 771 horsepower and a 96nm range. Reserves aren’t mentioned. A competing concept called Icon A5 shows 100hp, a range of 427nm, and a 45-minute reserve. This has wings to carry the lift. “Taking off vertically is not cheap. Wings are way more efficient than vertical lift.”
Condit pointed out that Air One suggests you could fly to a favorite fishing spot. But, Condit said, “unless your fishing spot has a charging port, I’ve got two vertical take-offs and two vertical landings. I have a net effective range of 30 miles. So, your fishing spot has to be within 30 miles.”
A deep dive into the single-aisle market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing’s share of outstanding single-aisle orders has fallen significantly behind Airbus. If we include the order book for single-aisle aircraft seating 100 or more passengers of Airbus, Boeing, COMAC, Embraer, and UAC, the American OEM’s market share is now 37% (Airbus has 58%, COMAC 3%, Embraer 2%, and UAC 2%).
Richard Aboulafia sees a risk that Boeing’s market share in the single-aisle market will dip below 30% without the entry into service of a new aircraft before 2035. Boeing Commercial Airplanes CEO Stan Deal said that it is viable for the American OEM’s single-aisle market share to stay around 40%.
A321neo Credit: Airbus
In the 2022 Boeing outlook, LNA also noted that there are significantly more A320ceo than 737 NG operators. A broader operator base means more opportunities to place new orders with a more diversified group of airlines. In the context of no new single-aisle family entering service in the next 10 years, convincing operators to “flip” to the competition will be the primary way to increase market share.
Exclusively looking at the nominal order books and A320ceo and 737 NG operators does not provide a comprehensive view of Airbus’ and Boeing’s relative positions in the single-aisle market, though.
In their 2022-2041 commercial market outlooks (CMO), Airbus and Boeing indicated that nearly half of all single-aisle deliveries would replace older-generation aircraft. Looking at the existing in-service fleet of older-generation aircraft provides a better picture of replacement order opportunities by the OEM.
LNA investigates in this article the existing order books of the five major OEMs and operator bases to better assess their relative competitive positions and quantify the current replacement order opportunities.
Summary
- A comprehensive single-aisle fleet snapshot;
- Breaking down the order books between replacements and growth;
- Keep track of order choices for older-generation operators;
- Remaining replacement order opportunities;
- A word about single-aisle freighters.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 54. Sustainable Aviation Fuel Production
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 20, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Having introduced Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF, as essential for reducing Green House Gases (GHG) until 2050, we now look at how SAF is produced, what pathways from feedstock to SAF are the main ones, and what are the short and long-term potentials of the different pathways.
I was helped to grasp the area by Neste’s EVP of Renewable Aviation fuel, Thorsten Lange, who, after we met when he presented at the Airbus Summit in November (Neste is a leading SAF producer), took the time to explain the subject to me last week. He also recommended a report we use to understand SAF.
Figure 1. The mebers of the Clean Skies for Tomorrow forum. Source: The World Economic Forum.
HOTR: Boeing ponders 777-300ER P2F program, again
By the Leeham News team
Jan. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Already well behind the 8 ball in delivering 787s, Boeing quietly advised some customers recently that they may see yet another delay—this one up to 15 months. Some customers expecting 787s in 2024 now expect them in 2025.
These additional delays are causing some airlines to retain Boeing 777 Classics longer than planned. Others want to re-lease 777s returned or sold to lessors on the expectation of 787s deliveries.
Retaining 777 Classics has implications for the cargo market. There are three conversion companies: IAI Bedek, the launch P2F firm; Mammoth Freighters; and Kansas Modification Center (KMC). These companies rely on feedstock from the airlines and lessors for their conversions. Retaining 777s may cause a dip in the feedstock.
The Airbus A220-500, a deep-dive analysis
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 20, 2023, © Leeham News: It’s a question “of when, not if” there will be an A220-500, we conclude in Tuesday’s article.
We have known about the -500 since the Bombardier days. A longer CS300 was part of the original concepts when the CS100 and CS300 were developed to safeguard that no decision on the smaller variants precluded a larger variant.
As Airbus A321 grows its share of the A320 lines’ output, an A220-500 makes sense, but only when the two A220 final assembly lines in Mirabel and Mobile can produce enough A220s to satisfy demand.
What would be the characteristics of an A220-500? We use our aircraft design and performance model to determine what is possible.
Figure 1. A rendering of an A220-500 that takes 157 passengers. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- The Airbus A220 has the base capabilities for a stretch to an A220-500.
- Some changes/improvements are needed, but these are limited to detailed changes beyond a fuselage stretch.
Airbus CCO: “When,” not “if” A220-500 comes; a deep-dive analysis
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By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: Airbus chief commercial officer Christian Scherer has been open: it is a matter of “when,” not “if” Airbus proceeds with a stretched A220-500.
A220-500. Credit: Leeham News.
The A220-500 would be the third member of the A220 family. The A220-100 is a 110-seat airplane in a typical two-class configuration. The A220-300 seats 135 passengers. The A220-500 would seat around 157, competing head-on with the Airbus A320neo at 152 and the Boeing 737-8 at 164.
The -500 was projected by Bombardier as the CS500. Bombardier focused its commercial aviation future on the C Series. In doing so, it neglected sales efforts on the CRJ and Q400 regional jet and turboprop. Development of the C Series, like programs at Airbus and Boeing, ran billions of dollars over budget. Developed concurrently with two corporate jet programs that also ran well over budget, Bombardier was on a path toward bankruptcy.
Airbus purchased a controlling interest in the CSeries program in 2017 and now owns 75% of the program. But so far, Airbus hasn’t stemmed the losses that began under Bombardier. Without the heft of Airbus’ buying power, Bombardier entered costly contracts with suppliers. Airbus has been renegotiating the contracts, with some success, but not enough. Ramping production up to 14 a month by 2025 from the current 6/mo is a key goal. Demand is there and the higher rate will lower costs.
But the A220-500 will compete with Airbus’ own A320neo. So, the plan to launch the A220-500 has this cloud over the decision.
Some believe that the A220-500 will be so much more efficient than the 737-8 that it will “kill” Boeing’s backbone airplane. LNA doesn’t agree.
This article is the first of three that analyzes the A220’s position in the market and the economics of a potential A220-500 vis-à-vis the A320neo and 737-8 MAX.
Summary
- Is the A320neo already on its way out, prompting plans for the A220-500?
- Talk of adding CFM LEAP to provide an engine choice.
- How does A220-500 compare economically with A320neo, 737-8?
Pontifications: “What can be. What should be.”
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 17, 2023, © Leeham News: “What can be. What should be.”
This was the title of an address last week at the University of Washington’s aerospace department. The speaker: the former CEO of The Boeing Co., Phil Condit.
Condit was named president of Boeing in 1992 and CEO in 1996. He retired in 2004 after a lifetime career at Boeing, with leadership roles in the 747, 757, 757, 767, and 777 programs.
With ecoAviation the soup de jour these days, beneficiaries of billions of dollars of investment (much of it stupid money) and the subject of much greenwashing, Condit had frank and candid observations about these concepts.
Although Condit retired from Boeing in the wake of the USAF tanker procurement scandal dating to 2001, his engineering skills and fundamental visions were highly regarded. He put these skills to good use a week ago.
2023 outlook for Sustainable Aviation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: In the years from 2015, Sustainable Aviation awareness has grown from “something interesting, but will it be needed?” to “how do we fix the environmental issues we have fast enough.” Scientists saw what happened 20 years ago, but the general public didn’t react until it affected everyday life.
The development of more Sustainable Aviation solutions has taken a similar route. Until 2015 the changes to morph aviation into a more sustainable path were a scientific discussion. At Le Bourget Air Show 2015, Airbus presented the E-Fan (Figure 1) that would cross the English Channel the following month. It started an intense debate about sustainable propulsion concepts for aircraft.
Eight years later, where are we today, and what will happen in 2023?
Figure 1. Airbus E-Fan at the 2015 Le Bourget Air Show. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary:
- The year will witness the “separation of the wheat from the chaff.” Viable concepts will prove themselves, and thin concepts, technically or funding-wise, will fail.
- We have a number of first flights from interesting projects. Several are in the “wheat” category.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 53. Sustainable Aviation Fuel
By Bjorn Fehrm.
January 13, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we could see in an example how effective Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF, blended into our regular Jet fuel, would be in reducing CO2 emissions until 2050.
It’s the only technology that can substantially influence our emissions over the next 30 years, as alternate technologies like hydrogen-fueled airliners need to ramp to thousands of aircraft before it affects emissions.
To understand SAF and how it can be produced and blended into Jet fuel, we first need to understand what Jet fuel is.
Figure 1. An Iberia A340 filled up with Jet-A1. Source: Wikipedia.
Outlook 2023 for China’s COMAC and Russia’s UAC
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: China’s civil airliner OEM, COMAC, made significant progress during 2022. It achieved Chinese certification for its C919 158-seat domestic airliner in September last year, with the first delivery to the launch customer, China Eastern Airlines, in December. The first aircraft will be used in trial operations during 2023. The C919 follows the regional ARJ21, which has been in operation in China since 2016.
The progress, after several delays, of the COMAC programs is in stark contrast to the airliner progress of Russia’s UAC. The slow progress for the SSJ100, MC-21, and Il-114 programs has now ground to a standstill since the invasion of Ukraine and the ensuing Western sanctions.
Figure 1. Test flight of the first series delivery C919 of China Eastern Airlines. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary:
- China and COMAC have made significant progress in 2022 and will gradually build a viable airliner industry from 2023 onwards with a regional and single-aisle offering.
- The opposite is true of Russia’s UAC. A once viable airliner industry is now crushed by the Kremlin’s decision to invade Ukraine.