Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing’s steps toward its next new airplane
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By Scott Hamilton
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing will launch a new airplane program, vows David Calhoun, CEO of The Boeing Co. Stan Deal, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), said Boeing is going through the “prerequisites” for a new airplane, according to Bloomberg news. Skeptics remain doubtful, noting research and development spending remains at historic lows and definitive action remains out of sight.
Boeing’s next new airplane could be a twin-aisle, similar to the New Midmarket Airplane concept, or a single aisle to complement the 737-10 more along the lines of a 757-200 and 757-300. Photo credit: Leeham News.
“The dilemma for Boeing is whether to wait to see if the new technology pans out, ‘or do we run the propulsion system one more time before we go to that next technology suite?’ Deal said in a virtual panel discussion hosted by the Royal Aeronautical Society,” Bloomberg reported in January. Calhoun, in an appearance at Bernstein Research Friday, said engines aren’t advanced enough for a new airplane to counter the Airbus A321neo.
Nevertheless, if one looks carefully, steps moving toward a new airplane program are there. LNA analyzed Boeing’s recent job hiring spree, which includes engineers, technicians, and other positions. Some of these are specifically for new airplane jobs. Boeing last year spent millions of dollars above contract requirements with SPEEA, its professional union, to retain engineers and technicians. Last year, Boeing named a new leader for its Digital Design Team for a new airliner. The Design Team recently studied lessons learned from defense programs for application to BCA.
Airlines impacted by new aircraft delays
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: LNA recently discussed the certification delays on all the current aircraft or variants under development: Airbus A321XLR, Boeing 737-7, 737-10, and 777X. Dreamliner deliveries have also been halted for 18 months now (except for a dozen last year).
Credit: Boeing
Airlines consequently face significant delivery delays on the aircraft they ordered. American Airlines publicly stated the Boeing 787 delivery delays have caused it to operate a smaller international network than envisioned. Air Lease Corp repeatedly noted that every airplane on order from Airbus and Boeing is delayed. It’s now been reported that CFM LEAP engines for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX families will be delayed for 4-6 weeks.
As passenger traffic recovers, the delivery delays will hamper airlines’ ability to capitalize on more robust demand. Higher fuel prices also mean that they cannot mitigate the impact by operating as many newer-generation aircraft as envisioned.
LNA analyzes the delivery schedule envisioned by Airbus and Boeing on the above programs that were in place before the delay announcements. The goal is to single out the most affected customers.
Summary
- Deliveries concentrated with one customer on the 737-7 and 737-10;
- A more diverse A321XLR and Dreamliner delivery base;
- Renegotiating 777X delivery timelines.
Pontifications: From Just in Time to Just in Case
By Scott Hamilton
June 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Delivery delays by Airbus and Boeing are well-known in today’s recovering environment. The reasons vary from supply chain challenges affecting both companies to Boeing’s suspended deliveries of the 787 and slower-than-expected deliveries of the 737 MAX.
Airbus Canada delivered only five A220s in May vs 10 that were planned. Ten deliveries are planned this month but hitting this target (and 70 for the year) may be problematic. LNA previously detailed the delays for the A220. Airplanes are coming off the final assembly lines without completed cockpits. Embraer is affected by a shortage of seats. CFM’s delivery of LEAP engines for the A320neo and 737 MAX is delayed.
It’s not just the big-ticket items that are hurting the Big Three airframe manufacturers. It’s the little stuff. The supply chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Some smaller suppliers can’t get the products they need from their suppliers. And some, already facing workforce shortages before the COVID-19 pandemic, are short of workers today.
These issues are causing a shift in what used to be the mantra of Just in Time product deliveries.
Boeing is trying to help its supply chain on a number of levels, said Mike Nieman, Regional Director of Globalization & Supplier Development, during the I-90 Corridor Conference last week in Coeur D’Alene (ID). The group represents the aerospace industry from Spokane (WA) through Idaho and into Montana along the Interstate 90 highway corridor.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 22. Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 3, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the powers and thermals of a Fuel Cell system for aircraft propulsion. Our example was a cryogenically cooled system with a superconducting Motor, Inverter, and Cabling.
Now we analyze the differences should we not use the liquid hydrogen (LH2) to help with cooling the system to a superconduction state. What are the thermal and mass consequences of using conventional electronics and motors? The detailed discussion is in the sister article Part 22P. Here we summarize the findings.
Figure 1. The parts of a fuel cell propulsion system. We discuss cryocooled (graph) and non-cryocooled variants. Source: NTNU.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 22P. Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass. The deeper discussion.
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June 3, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 22, Fuel Cell system efficiency and mass. It analyses the power, loss, mass, and efficiency consequences of the different fuel cell architectures described in the main article.
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
June 2, 2022, © Leeham News: We tested the notion that it’s more economical to divide a long flight into two shorter flights last week. The test was a typical long-range flight of 11 to 12 hours.
We found that if all operational costs are counted (the so-called Cash Operating Costs, COC), the theory didn’t work. You gain on fuel costs, but you are doubling other costs like landing fees, etc.
Now we test the theory on an Ultra Long Range (ULR) flight, using our Performance and Operational Cost model.
QANTAS 787-9. Source: QANTAS
Summary
- The widespread idea of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight applies to ULR flights.
- The theory says this is because a long flight takes more fuel than two shorter flights. It’s not the main reason why the theory holds for ULR flights.
Boeing’s hiring spree points to progress toward Next Boeing Airplane
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By the Leeham News Team
May 30, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing is hiring again.
Boeing’s hiring spree is aimed at replacing engineers, technicians, retirees and jobs lost in Russia and Ukraine. But an analysis also points to gearing up for the Next Boeing Airplane. Photo Credit: Leeham News.
The pendulum of staffing swings back and forth in the aerospace industry.
Today’s hiring events are one of several steps beyond the highly visible need to deliver airplanes required to rebuild Boeing. Rebuilding its brain drain and positioning itself for its next new airplane is another required step. Repairing the damage to its once-gold standard safety reputation is another. Boeing also is moving to fix this issue.
Historically, companies chase the proper mix of employees and never get it right. The reason for the personnel churn is the nature of the skills needed and the timing of their need.
In an attempt to get ahead of this problem, Boeing spent millions of dollars last year to retain SPEEA-represented engineers and technical employees at the Everett final assembly site. This reverses a decades-long trend to downsize the employed workforce through outsourcing or shifting union jobs from Washington State to out-of-state locations.
To understand why this happens, we need to look at the cascading of work through the Commercial Airplanes division starting with a single product.
Pontifications: NIAR WERX joins with Precision Aircraft Solutions for A321, 757, MD-87 conversions
By Scott Hamilton
May 30, 2022, © Leeham News: NIAR WEXR, the aerospace research arm of Wichita State University (WSU), will join with Precision Aircraft Solutions for passenger-to-freighter and MRO for the Airbus A321, Boeing 757, and the Boeing (McDonnell Douglas) MD-87.
NIAR WERX already converts and performs maintenance on MD-87s and it partnered with Kansas Modification Center to convert Boeing 777-300ERs into freighters. Kansas Mod is not part of the Precision Aircraft deal.
Although announced last week, NIAR and Precision have been working toward this arrangement for some time. NIAR already has been setting up conversion lines and tooling for the A321 and 757. Emphasis will be on the A321. The hangar to be used is a giant one previously used by Boeing for the 747-200 Air Force One work, which is now performed in San Antonio (TX). Four to five lines can be installed in the hangar. This gives the capacity to convert 12-24 aircraft per year. The first A321/757 lines will be ready in the third quarter this year, says David Jones, NIAR WERX executive director.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 21. Fuel Cell system design
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 27, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the power levels we need in a fuel cell and electric motor system. We listed the required powers and durations for takeoff, climb, and maximum continuous power levels for a 70-seater turboprop.
Now we go deeper into the fuel cell system design, looking at system powers and thermals.
Figure 1. The principal parts of a fuel cell propulsion system. Source: NASA.
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 26, 2022, © Leeham News: There is a notion that it’s better to fly a long flight in two hops rather than one long flight. The idea is that the plane has to carry extra fuel to bring the fuel for the last bit of the long flight, increasing its drag due to weight.
So far, the theory. Is it also the case in practice? We use the Leeham airliner performance and cost model to find out.
LEVEL is an example of the long-haul low-cost operator we look at. Source: IAG.
Summary
- The widespread hypothesis of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight needed a check.
- When we check it with an operational cost model that considers all cash costs, we conclude the hypothesis does not apply to normal long-range flights.