Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 4. July 3, 2025
- GE testing of giant GE9X engine aims for maturity at entry into service June 30, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 28. June 27, 2025
- Parent agency, FAA often at odds as politics outweighs safety June 26, 2025
- Electric Flight and the Ugly Duckling June 25, 2025
NTSB issues critique of Ethiopia’s final report of Boeing 737 MAX 2019 crash
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 27, 2022, © Leeham News: The US National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) today issued a critique of the newly released final investigation report of the Ethiopian government of the March 10, 2019, crash of a Boeing 737 MAX.
Ethiopian Airlines flight ET302 came five months after Lion Air flight JT610, a MAX, crashed. Both accidents began when the Maneuvering Characteristics Augmentation System (MCAS) activated following a failure of the single Angle of Attack (AOA) sensor to which it was tied malfunctioned (JT610) or failed (ET302).
Boeing issued a notice to MAX operators after the Lion Air crash outlining proper procedures pilots should follow in case MCAS erroneously activated again. The Ethiopian government investigation placed the blame for the crash on Boeing. The NTSB’s critique concluded the pilots failed to follow Boeing recommendations and should be partly held responsible for the probable cause of the crash. Had they followed procedure, the NTSB concludes the pilots could have successfully flown through the emergency.
Pontifications: LNA’s Top 10 stories of 2022
Dec. 26, 2022, © Leeham News: This year has been a year of recovery.
By Scott Hamilton
Recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Recovery from shortages in the supply chain, layoffs during the pandemic and from financial losses. Boeing continues to struggle in its recovery from the 2019 grounding of the 737 MAX and 2020 suspension of deliveries of the 787.
This year saw a resumption of the big international European air shows since the pandemic—Farnborough. There was great anticipation that Boeing was working on new airplane programs in earnest for the first time in three years.
And disappointments.
Here’s a review of the Top 10 stories LNA published, by readership.
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Suppliers expect Boeing to increase 787 rates next year
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By Bryan Corliss
Dec. 19, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing suppliers are planning to increase their output to support the OEM’s plan to deliver five new-built 787s a month at some point in 2023.
Boeing wants to increase the production rate of the 787 to 5/mo by the end of 2023 and to 10/mo by 2025. The supply chain must hurry to prepare. Credit: Leeham News.
It will be challenging for the top-tier suppliers to scale up operations dramatically. They’ll have to train and maintain larger teams of workers, while also ensuring that their own lower-tier suppliers have the capacity to deliver parts and components on time.
One executive warned investors this fall that the challenges in the year ahead will be greater than the ones the industry faced delivering record numbers of planes before the pandemic.
Summary:
- Howmet: ‘Back of the year, at around 5 per month’
- Suppliers want more lead time given challenges
- Whole supply chain is under stress
Leeham News in addition to Twitter, Facebook and Linkedin, may now be found on Post.news here and on Mastodon here.
United orders 100 Boeing 787s, 100 Boeing 737s, defers Airbus A350 again
Dec. 13, 2022, © Leeham News: United Airlines today announced a massive order for 100 Boeing 787s and 100 Boeing 737 MAXes. Sub-types weren’t announced. Neither were the engine types for the 787s, which are powered by either GE Aerospace’s GEnx or Rolls-Royce Trent 1000.
An order for 45 Airbus A350s was deferred again, this time to at least 2030. Deliveries were to begin in 2027. The order had been deferred at least twice previously. Reuters reported “United CEO Scott Kirby told reporters ‘the right time for 350 versus (787) conversation is when we’re replacing the bulk of the 777s, which really doesn’t begin to the end of the decade.’” Most observers believe this order will be canceled eventually.
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At least one more big airline order, Air India, is expected before the end of the year.
Pontifications: The Queen is Dead. Long live the Queen.
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 12, 2022, © Leeham News: The 1,574th Boeing 747 rolled off the production line last Tuesday. The last one, after 53 years of continuous production. The iconic aircraft was known as the Queen of the Skies.
The larger A380 didn’t replace the 747. McDonnell Douglas’s DC-10 and MD-11 didn’t replace it. The Lockheed L-1011 didn’t replace it. Neither did Boeing’s own 777-300ER. And neither will the 777X. The 777-X does not replace the 747—it succeeds the 747. I don’t think that anyone will characterize the 777X as “the Queen of the Skies.” The X looks like any other airplane. The 747 look is unique (a well-worn, overused word that in this case applies) and iconic. It has a nose door. The 777XF does not.
The Queen is Dead. Long live the Queen.
The last Boeing 747 to be built rolled off the Everett factory line Dec. 6, 2022. Line No. 1574 is for Atlas Air. After painting, a decal of legendary engineer Joe Sutter, the father of the 747, will be applied to the starboard side. Photo credit: Leeham News.
As it turns out, there was a debate within Boeing as far back as 2004 about whether to cancel the 747 program then. The 777-300ER was just entering service. There was a recognition within Boeing that the -300ER was the beginning of the end for the 747.
I tell this story in my book, Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing. Also in the book is the story about how Boeing tried to launch the 747-500 and 747-600, without success. Airbus won this competition, launching the A380 with Singapore Airlines and in the process killing the 747 derivatives. But Phil Condit, then the CEO of Boeing, wasn’t upset. Something else was in the hopper.
Below is a synopsis of these stories, excerpted from Air Wars.
HOTR: Tuesday’s Boeing announcement may give indication of A350 future at United
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 9, 2022, © Leeham News: The engine selection on a big Boeing 787 to be announced Tuesday may be the most definitive signal yet of what United Airlines will do with its oft-deferred Airbus A350 order.
United is considered certain at some point to cancel its orders for 45 A350s. This order has been deferred several times. The new order to be announced Tuesday for up to 100 or more Boeing 787s adds to the more than 60 already in the fleet. United clearly doesn’t need a large fleet of 787s and a smaller fleet of A350s.
But canceling the Airbus order is not without some cost. It’s believed that penalties to Airbus are manageable. These also may be mitigated by an order for A321neos. This can solve Airbus’s concerns. But it does nothing for Rolls-Royce, which provides the engines for the A350s.
Rolls is not an engine supplier for the A321neo. United’s swapping the A350 for the A321 means Rolls loses that future business. What’s the mitigation for Rolls?
United may split the engine order for the 787 between incumbent GE Aerospace and Rolls. If the engine selection is announced Tuesday and the order is split, this will be the clearest indication yet that the A350 order will be history. United and Boeing scheduled a press conference at the 787 production and assembly plant in Charleston (SC).
HOTR: Big airplane orders race toward year end
Dec. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: A year-end aircraft order rush will benefit Airbus and Boeing, according to what LNA is hearing.
Air India
Airbus appears in line to win 50-100 A350 orders from Air India. Boeing appears in line to win an order from the carrier for 100 new-build 737 MAXes and—get this—40 MAXes that were built for China and which have been in storage since 2019. As previously reported, there were about 140 MAXes built for the Chinese. Boeing said in September it couldn’t wait any longer for China to reopen the domestic market to Boeing for the MAXes. Remarketing the airplanes began then.
The Boeing order could be signed as early as this week or next. The Airbus deal is expected by year-end.
Saudi Arabia
Saudi Arabia is expected to agree to an order for around 50 A350s. The new airline, RIA, which will compete with the current flag carrier, Saudi, is expected to be the prime beneficiary. Airbus hopes to conclude the deal by year’s end if not earlier.
Boeing is not in line for an order this year, according to what HOTR hears. But negotiations begin soon.
The Economics of the 767 and A330 at Seven and Eight abreast
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Dec. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: In a previous article, we started speculating what an NMA type of aircraft would look like based on a Boeing 767 cross-section. An airliner’s cross-section decides the design of a large number of parts in an airplane.
In essence, a fuselage is a tube with a constant cross-section where the constant parts are repeated framewise to form the fuselage. It’s finished with a tapering forward cockpit and a rear tapering empennage.
We now look at what could have been a passenger version of an NMA that would have used the Boeing 767 cross-section with adaptations. To understand its economic impact, we make a comparison where we take a standard 767-300ER, then modify it to an NMA type fuselage and compare it to the competition in the size class, the A330-200 and -800.
As before, we do this by flying the world’s busiest long-haul route, London Heathrow, to New York JFK.
Summary
- An NMA based on an improved 767 fuselage cross-section would have been a very competitive airliner
- I would be the ideal replacement for the Boeing 757, 767, and 787-8.
HOTR: United likely can cancel A350 order with little penalty
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: United Airlines appears on the cusp of ordering as many as 100 Boeing 787s, multiple news outlets report. Airbus hopes to sell more A350s to United to supplement the 45 already on order.
But these 45 A350-900s are an order that has been viewed as iffy since United merged with Continental Airlines. Although ostensibly United was the surviving carrier, in reality, Continental was the survivor. The latter’s management displaced United’s old management. The livery retained was Continental’s.
The A350 order was placed by the old United management. The new executives added to the United order, but Continental had been an exclusive buyer of Boeing aircraft and executives were predisposed toward Boeing. UAL now has 120 Airbus A321XLRs on order. But this came after Boeing couldn’t decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Airplane after years of dithering. With a large fleet of Boeing 757s aging and in need of eventual replacement, United could no longer wait for Boeing to make a decision.
United already has a large fleet of 787s. Adding the A350s will provide an extra range that the 787s don’t have. But how many routes need the extra range to justify another fleet type?
LNA believes that United can cancel the orders for 45 A350s at little cost. The deposits may easily be applied to orders for more A321s, but cancellation penalties are believed to be de minimis. Based on 2018 list prices—the last ones published by Airbus—United could get about 110 more A321s in exchange for the A350s. (The number is probably a little less since the XLRs are more expensive than the A321neo “standard;” the list price makes no distinction between the sub-types.)
LNA expects United to cancel the A350s sooner than later and add to the A321 order.
Regulators need to understand realities, complexities of achieving ecoAviation goals
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: Battery power. Hybrid-battery. Hydrogen. Hydrogen-hybrid. Sustainable Aviation Fuel.
Boeing’s 777 ecoDemonstrator. Boeing launched the ecoD program 10 years ago. Credit: Boeing.
Whatever the path chosen by the hundreds of companies seeking greener commercial aviation, government regulations and tax breaks are going to be a part of the solutions.
The airline industry has a goal of achieving net-zero carbon emissions by 2050. There are milestone targets between now and then. But will governments fully understand what’s technologically achievable in considering regulations or tax breaks? Will they fully understand which options are the best environmental solution?
Boeing developed an analytical tool called Cascade to help governments and regulators understand these issues. Importantly, Cascade takes into account the total life cycle factors for environmentally-friendly options.
The model analyzes carbon emissions for airplane fleet renewal, renewable energy sources such as sustainable fuel, hydrogen, electric propulsion, operational efficiency improvements, and advanced technologies. At the moment, Cascade remains in Beta testing internally. LNA has not had the opportunity to play with it.
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“We’ve got to be honest about where we are on the life cycle emissions,” says Chris Raymond, the chief sustainability officer for The Boeing Co. “We’ve got to have a way to take that into account. We were just trying to start to illustrate to people that the energy generation upstream of whatever’s going to power the airplane is all part of the calculus that we have to think about. That’s really why we invented Cascade.”