Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 3
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the operating economics of the Boeing 777-8F and Airbus A350F. Both freighters are new launches over the last 6 months with planned service entry 2025 (A350F) and 2027 (777-8F).
We flew the freighters with the help of our Aircraft Performance Model over a typical freight trunk route from Shanghai to Anchorage at a full load and compared their economics with the present freighter in this class, the Boeing 777F. Readers demanded we fly them with a part load and on shorter routes, so here we go.
Summary
- When we vary the payload and the route length, the economic differences between the freighters stay roughly the same.
HOTR: Consensus that Boeing must launch new airplane in 2023 or 2024
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: There is a belief that when Boeing clears out much of its 737 MAX inventory, resumes delivery of the 787, and reduces a good portion of its debt that it will launch a new airplane program.
The Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), as LNA calls it, could be launched in 2023 or 2024, which seems to be a growing consensus.
Consultant Michel Merluzeau, who does work for Boeing on occasion, predicted last week that the NBA could be launched late next year or early the following year. The airplane would be a 225-240 passenger aircraft (two-class) and a single aisle. This is like the Boeing 757—which largely has exited passenger service—and the upper limits of the A321neo. Merluzeau made his predictions at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance conference.
Impact of 787-10 HGW on the large twin-aisle aircraft market
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 14th, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing Commercial Aircraft (BCA) CEO Stan Deal announced that the company was working on a high gross weight (HGW) variant of the 787-10 Dreamliner.
United Airlines 787-10. Credit: United Airlines.
LNA later revealed that the maximum takeoff weight (MTOW) increase would also be available on the 787-9. The goal of the increased MTOW is to make the 787-10 more competitive against the A350-900, which currently has a significantly higher nominal range: 6,430 nm vs. 8,100 nm. The 787-10 HGW range should match that of the 777-200ER.
The 787-10 HGW targets replacing larger, older-generation, twin-aisle aircraft still in service, notably the 777-200ER and 777-300ER. Boeing’s primary goal is to prevent customers from ordering the Airbus A350-900 due to a lack of payload-range for the 787-10.
Boeing paused developing the 777-8 around 2.5 years ago, and it is not clear whether the variant will ever enter service. Therefore, without the 787-10 HGW, there would be a sizable seat gap between the 787-9 (290) and 777-9 (414) in the American OEM’s long-range twin-aisle offering. Both A350 variants are in that seat gap.
The arrival on the market of the 787-10 HGW has the potential to affect sales opportunities for the A350 and the 777X. LNA analyses the potential replacement market for long-range aircraft seating 300 or more passengers in this context.
Summary
- Large twin-aisle replacement market;
- 787-10 HGW potential customers;
- The airlines unlikely to order the 787-10 HGW.
Pontifications: Rerunning the KC-X campaign as Technically Acceptable, Lowest Price process
Part 5 in a Series: the Boeing perspective in the last KC-X campaign
Feb. 14, 2022, © Leeham News: After the Government Accountability Office (GAO) upheld Boeing’s protest over the US Air Force contract award to Northrop Grumman-EADS, the parties regrouped to consider whether or how to compete for the KC-X contract again.
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing was discouraged after the Northrop win. According to press reports at the time, US Rep. Norm Dicks, a Democrat from Bremerton (WA) since retired, encouraged Boeing to make another bid. The US Air Force recast the new procurement to a pass-fail process on the requirements, emphasizing the price. The process was known as Technically Acceptable, Lowest Price, or TALP. Northrop decided to drop out. EADS, despite concluding the odds were long that it could win, went ahead.
In September 2009, the Air Force began the new procurement process. The same month, Jim Albaugh moved from Boeing’s defense unit, where he had been president and CEO, to Boeing Commercial Airplanes, in the same position. Although no longer involved day-to-day in the KC-X campaign, Albaugh nevertheless was in a good position to recall how Boeing approached this round.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 2
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing introduced the freighter version of the 777X last week, and we made a first article about how it stacks up against Airbus’ new freighter, the A350F. The Boeing freighter will be the market’s largest freighter when it enters the market in 2027, two years after the A350F.
We now use our performance model to fly the new freighters against the present Boeing 777 freighter, the 777F, to look at their operating economics.
Summary
- Both new freighters handsomely beat the 777F on operating economics.
- The race is much tighter between the 777-8F and A350F.
Pontifications: KC-X aerial tanker competition becomes a pass-fail RFP
Part 4: The Boeing perspective
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 7, 2022, © Leeham News: After Boeing lost to Northrop Grumman-EADS for the KC-X US Air Force tanker contract, Boeing filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
The Air Force, Boeing complained, gave Northrop extra credit for the larger A330 MRTT’s fuel capacity and range. This possibility had not been in the Request for Proposals. Boeing, therefore, felt its tanker, based on the 767-200ER airframe, was properly sized for the USAF requirements.
The GAO upheld Boeing’s protest. For the third time, the Air Force now had to issue an RFP and run another competition.
Northrop decided to sit this one out. But, as previously reported in the Sean O’Keefe series of the Airbus perspective, Airbus elected to bid again.
This time, the RFP was tightened. It took a Pass-Fail approach.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing launched the new large freighter, 777-8F, Monday with an order for 34 and options for 16 from Qatar Airways.
We made a comparison based on projected data in August 2021 of the 777-XF versus an A350 freighter, but now we have final data for both. We can now compare the 777-8F from Boeing with the A350F from Airbus. We also compare these with the present Boeing freighter, 777F.
The new freighters represent the largest freighters that will be in the market at the end of the decade, as Boeing’s 747-8F ends its production after the summer. The A350F starts deliveries during 2025, and the 777-8F joins in 2027.
We start with comparing freight capabilities, and then we fly them on a typical freight route, using our aircraft performance model.
Image: Boeing.
Summary
- The 777-8F has the largest volume and highest payload capability, making it the market’s largest freighter at the end of the decade.
- But despite the highest takeoff weight, it has the shortest range of the compared freighters.
Year-end 2021 Orders at Risk
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 1st, 2022, © Leeham News: After a large number of cancellations, Boeing accumulated a healthy number of 737 MAX orders in 2021. Some came through positive ASC 606 adjustments on Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ website. The adjustments resulted from Boeing agreeing on new terms on existing deals or finding new customers for tails flagged as ASC 606.
Airbus also accumulated a healthy number of A320neo family orders, effectively selling out the production line through the middle of this decade. Both OEMs struggled with their twin-aisle order books due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Boeing’s Dreamliner production problems. Freighter orders were a bright spot for Boeing.
However, portions of both OEM’s order books became shakier. It means there is a material probability some orders won’t translate into deliveries. Most were the result of airlines encountering financial difficulties, but some were related to contractual disputes. Boeing flags such orders as subject to an ASC 606 adjustment.
Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule similar to the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report.
LNA analyzed in July 2020, November 2020, and August 2020, Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We update this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs. The above links explain our methodology and its differences with Boeing’s ASC 606 adjustments.
Summary
- Lingering order book cleanup for older programs;
- A riskier region for single-aisle orders;
- Small and large twin-aisle order book weaknesses;
- A more significant impact on twin-aisle market shares.
CFM’s Open Fan targets mid-2030s for entry into service
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
CFM RISE Open Fan. Credit: CFM.
Feb. 1, 2020, © Leeham News: GE Aviation appears confident the CFM open rotor engine—a concept that was flight tested back in the 1980s—is an engine whose time has come.
But it won’t be ready when the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) is likely to be launched. Based on market intelligence, Boeing may launch its new airplane program in 2023 or 2024, for entry into service by the end of the decade. CFM’s open rotor, which it calls open fan, won’t be ready for application to an airliner until later in the 2030 decade.
Open rotors or open fans have the potential to be about 20% more fuel-efficient than today’s Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan or CFM’s LEAP engine. (GE is a 50% partner with Safran Aircraft in CFM.) The reduced fuel consumption results in a corresponding reduction in emissions. GE’s research and development program is called RISE, for Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines.
NIAR, partners offer tanker-converted 777-300ER PTF to US Air Force
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 31, 2022, © Leeham News: A third company will offer a tanker to the US Air Force when the KC-Y Request for Proposal is issued this year.
Kansas Modification Center (KMC) and the National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR) will propose converting used Boeing 777-300ERs to tankers. Jim Gibbs, president and CEO of KMC, already submitted information to the Air Force in response to last year’s Request for Information.
A retired B-1 bomber acquired by NIAR for research. Credit: Wichita State University.
Gibbs, in an interview with LNA, said that the concept is to offer the Air Force a tanker not for front-line combat zones, but along the lines of the conversions used by Omega Air. Omega provides non-combat air refueling service for the US Navy, Air Force, and some NATO countries. It operates after-market conversions of the Boeing 707 and McDonnell Douglas DC-10. IAI Bedek also undertook after-market tanker conversions of the 707 and Boeing 767. The UK’s Royal Air Force converted Vickers VC-10s and Lockheed L-1011s to tankers.
Choosing the 777-300ER
Gibbs said the KMC and NIAR chose the 777-300ER over the 777-200ER or LR as the better platform, in their view.
“The 777, especially the -300, makes an enormous amount of sense right now. It’s a modern aircraft, very low time, the aircraft itself can haul about 200,000 pounds on a structural payload with very minor modifications to it,” Gibbs said. “You can take that aircraft, add some existing capabilities on it, such as the existing boom of KC-135, and simplify the fuel offload process. I think you would have a very capable tanker. If you have a mission radius of 3,000 miles, a 777 can still offload 150,000 pounds of fuel.
“The -300ER has a higher gross weight than anything, with the exception of the -200LR. If you look at the available aircraft for conversion and the available feedstock on it, the LR and the type of aircraft available for that are very minimal compared to the -300ER feedstock. The -300 is a bigger aircraft, it shares the same wing box and a lot of structure with the -200, or most of the structure, besides the plugs. We need to inject 100 tankers into the fleet. There’s not that many -200LRs out there,” Gibbs said.