Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Why the A380 didn’t sell
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
November 25, 2021, © Leeham News: The last A380 will be delivered to Emirates in the coming week, after a production run of only 251 units. Why didn’t Airbus sell more?
What was the trouble with the A380? Was it uneconomical, or was there some other problem? We look into the different factors that made it a hard sell to the world’s airlines and support this with comparisons with aircraft that sold better.
Summary
- The A380 had its shares of development problems, mainly in the installation of a complex electrical system. Still, overall the development and production went reasonably well for being a new type for Airbus.
- We have over the years shown that its seatmile costs were competitive versus alternatives. What was then the problem? Why didn’t it sell?
Pontifications: Assessing the future of stand-alone GE Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: GE Aviation’s (GEA) spin-off takes the corporate burden off its back and opens that way to move forward just as commercial aviation should be over the COVID-19 pandemic.
By Scott Hamilton
The engine unit will no longer be dragged down by, and cash diverted to, GE Corp.’s problems. It can raise money for research and development of new engines and for eco-aviation, without it being siphoned off for corporate or sister company uses.
GEA has challenges ahead, to be sure.
The business model for engine companies has been upended, requiring an entirely new approach to selling engines and services. Historically, engine makers often deeply discount engines—up to 80% or more in some cases—and contract maintenance, repair, and overhaul services to make their profits.
As the COVID-19 pandemic prematurely prompted airlines to retire older aircraft, maintenance, repair, and overhaul revenues and profits shrank, sometimes dramatically. And, with a new emphasis on eco-aviation, new planes have engines with warranties and extended on-wing time that pressure MRO revenues.
Breaking up GE Corp. into three major units will take a few years. When it’s over, chairman Larry Culp remains chairman of GE Aviation. John Slattery remains CEO.
Book Review: Flying Blind is a must-read about the Boeing 737 MAX crisis
By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 20, 2021, © Leeham News: Flying Blind, The 737 MAX Tragedy and the Fall of Boeing is the sad story of how The Boeing Co., once renowned for its engineering prowess, 
descended into the depths of crisis with its most profitable airplane.
Authored by Bloomberg news reporter Peter Robison, much of the story is well known on the proverbial 35,000-foot level. Congressional hearings, investigative reporting, crash coverage of Lion Air Flight 610 and Ethiopian Airlines Flight 310, provided plenty of grist for the mill.
Robison delves deeper into the crisis that encompassed Boeing from March 2019 with the ET 310 crash, from which it won’t recover for years. I point to the Ethiopian crash as the start of the crisis, because for the most part, the Lion Air crash was viewed as just another crash—until Ethiopian’s tragedy made it clear there was something deadly wrong with the 737 MAX.
Boeing lands a series of passenger and freighter orders at Dubai
By Judson Rollins
Introduction
November 16, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing captured a handful of orders and a further expansion into freighter conversion at this week’s Dubai Air Show.
The largest of these, announced Tuesday, is for 72 737 MAXes destined for Indian startup Akasa Air. These will include a mix of 737-8s and 737-8-200s. Akasa plans to offer commercial flights starting next summer.
Update on twin-aisle production rates
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Nov. 15, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing updated their commercial production plans a few weeks ago, including rates on their twin-aisle families.
As a result of solid freighter demand, Boeing is considering increasing the 777F production rate from around 1.5 per month. Lingering production issues leave the Dreamliner assembly line at two per month until deliveries resume. The 767 line stays at three per month for now.
Airbus delayed an increase in the A350 production rate from five to six per month to early 2023. However, the OEM surprised the market by announcing an increase in the A330 production rate to three per month by late 2022.
LNA has repeatedly pointed out the weak A330neo order book in recent years. Airbus said that recent commercial successes allow it to ramp up A330 production.
While Boeing was more cautious about a near-term recovery in twin-aisle aircraft orders, Airbus recently stated that interest was picking up. LNA investigates the latest production plans on commercial twin-aisle programs and compares them with early 2020 and 2021.
Summary
- A head-scratching A330 production increase;
- Pushing 777X deliveries to the right;
- Differing plans for the A350 and 787;
- Sustaining the 767 production rate.
Airbus details A350F specifications
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
November 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus has given more information about what led to their new freighter, the A350F, and its data. Scott Hamilton talked to Airbus Chief Commercial Officer Christian Scherer at the IATA AGM on Oct. 3-5 in Boston, and Bjorn Fehrm spoke to Head of Freighter marketing, Crawford Hamilton, about the technical details. (The two Hamiltons are not related.)
The A350F is the most capable new-build freighter Airbus has designed, posing the most serious threat to Boeing’s dominance of jet freighters since the dawn of the jet age. Some expect Boeing to respond next week with a program launch of the 777XF, but LNA understands this won’t be the case.
“The market has asked us to produce it,” said Scherer of the A350F. “So we launched the program based on our own belief of the strength of the business case.”
“The A350F beats the competing production freighter (Boeing’s 777F, our note) on payload, volume, and economics,” says Crawford Hamilton. “We have taken extra care to make the door larger and the floor extra sturdy to ease loading planning and execution. The A350F will be the freight forwarder’s preferred machine.”
The Airbus new freighter, the A350F. Source: Airbus.
Pontifications: As customers wait for 787s, some rethink 777-300ERs
Nov. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing now has passed one year since deliveries were suspended for the 787. There were 105 787s in inventory at Sept. 30. The current build rate is 2/mo.
By Scott Hamilton
LNA identified 93 787s that were ordered in 2020 and 2021 that are believed to be parked, leaving 12 unaccounted for.
Among the aircraft in inventory are:
- 11 787-8s destined for American Airlines, which are owned by Boeing Capital Corp.
- 3 for BOC Aviation, which do not have identified customers.
- 9 for Chinese airlines.
- 8 for the always cranky Qatar Airways.
LNA understands that several customers are now looking for substitutions in the Boeing 777-300ER fleet owned by lessors. Of the 116 -300ERs in storage, 60 are owned by lessors. Nearly all are leased to airlines that put the aircraft in storage. But there are some off-lease. The latter includes seven owned by GECAS (now AerCap), which are destined for conversion to freighters via IAI Bedek.
HOTR: Boeing sees travel recovery end of 2024
By the Leeham News Team
Nov. 2, 2021, © Leeham News: Although US domestic passenger traffic seems to be booming, globally air trave
l remains well below 2019 levels preceding the 2020 COVID-19 pandemic.
Boeing sees domestic travel recovering in 2022. But international, widebody traffic won’t recover until the end of 2024, Boeing predicts.
In an appearance last week before the Aerospace Futures Alliance in Seattle, Janene Collins, VP of Contracts & Sourcing Supply Chain, also said Boeing expects a supply chain squeeze is likely to impact plans to increase airplane production rates.
Vaccinations, improving economies drive recovery
Collins said vaccinations and improving economies are accelerating air travel recovery. As vaccinations become more widespread and economies recover, pent-up demand is spurring traffic. However, international border restrictions and proof of vaccinations continue to inhibit travel recovery, however.
Supply chain squeeze
Collins also told the AFA conference that competition for raw materials and labor, especially in the US, is a rising concern. Shipping at US ports is backing up, with hundreds of cargo vessels anchored awaiting labor and truck drivers to unload and ship their freight.
On Boeing’s 3Q2021 earnings call the next day, CEO David Calhoun said, “We’re actively working to ensure the production system, including the supply chain, is stable prior to making decisions to further increase
the production rate. Raw materials, logistics and labor availability will also be key watch items for future rate increases.
“With economic activity picking up, labor availability within our supply chain will be the critical watch item,” Calhoun said.
Snippets from the Boeing earnings call
Other quick facts from the earnings call:
- About one-third (122) of the current 737 MAX inventory of 370 airplanes is destined for China.
- “We have to get better at delivering [737s] out of the completion center our inventoried airplanes,” Calhoun said. (Delivery of MAXes from inventory is taking about twice as long as previously expected, a knowledgeable source tells )
- Boeing will increase the production capacity of the 777F, which currently is about 1.5/mo, due to the demand for freighters. Boeing did not specify the new rate.
Boeing faces cancellations for 787s
Boeing has about 110 787s in inventory, representing the suspension of deliveries since October 2020. LNA understands that one major customer sees as many as half of these aircraft as subject to cancellation before deliveries resume. No date has been set for resumption. But, based on information LNA has obtained as affected airlines look for substitute lift, it may be well into the first quarter of 2022 before Boeing begins clearing this inventory.
Boeing, and airlines, are shopping for available 777-300ERs to provide substitute lift for the grounded 787s. Some airlines seek long-term leases, suggesting cancellations are possible. As the delivery delays pass 9-12 months, customers are able to cancel the aircraft–even if built.
Engine OEMs pushing ahead for next airplane, even as Boeing pauses
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: David Calhoun may not be anywhere near ready to launch the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), but the engine makers are actively researching and developing engines to hang of whatever that NBA will be.
Calhoun, the CEO of Boeing, repeatedly said the NBA will be more about reducing production costs through advanced design and production methods. For some time, Calhoun said the next engines available on the assumed timeline—to about 2030—will have only 10% better economics than today’s engines.
And 10% isn’t enough for the airlines or the commensurate reduction in emissions.
CFM/GE Aviation/Safran are developing an “open fan” engine that will reduce fuel burn and emissions by 20%. A target date for entry into service is in the 2030 decade. The open fan builds on R&D of open rotors that have been underway since the era of the Boeing 727 and McDonnell Douglas MD-80.
Pratt & Whitney sees an evolution of its Geared Turbofan engine. The GTF was under development for 20 years before an operating engine made it onto the Bombardier C Series (now the Airbus 220), the Airbus A320, and United Aircraft MC-21. The GTF also was selected for the Mitsubishi MRJ90, which launched the GTF program. However, Mitsubishi pulled the plug on the MRJ/SpaceJet program last year. PW remains committed to the GTF for future engines.
Rolls-Royce is developing the Ultra Fan and Advanced engines. GE’s Open Fan and RR’s engines adopt geared turbofan technology pioneered by PW but add new technology.
LNA takes a look at the new engines for the NBA or any other competing airplane in a series of articles.