Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 24. May 30, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 3. May 29, 2025
- Boeing’s future depends on FAA approvals May 26, 2025
- Department of Justice, Boeing OK to Non-Prosecution Agreement May 23, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 23. May 23, 2025
NMA off the table in 2020–and maybe entirely
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Introduction
Oct. 21, 2019, © Leeham News, New York: What is the impact of the 737 MAX grounding on Boeing’s plan for the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA)?
This question was common along the sidelines last week of the Wings Club and two conferences in New York City. (See Pontifications.)
There is, of course, no definitive answer today.
But the plurality of opinion is that the NMA is off the table for the indefinite future.
Summary
- There is no clear picture when the MAX will be recertified, either by the FAA or other regulators.
- There is no clear picture how long Boeing will maintain production rate at 42/mo, which depends on how much longer it must wait for recertification.
- With turmoil in the executive suite (the CEO lost his chairman’s title Oct. 11), there is no clear picture how long Dennis Muilenburg has a job.
- With, apparently, Boeing Commercial CEO Kevin McAllister also in the cross hairs, there is no clear picture of executive suite stability at Longacres, the BCA HQ.
- Any successors for Muilenburg and/or McAllister will want to review Boeing’s entire product strategy.
- Therefore, do not expect any go-forward for NMA in 2020.
Other than that, everything is fine.
Pontifications: To no surprise, MAX was major topic at 3 NYC events
- Media, Twitter go mad over text messages.
- Recertifying MAX now looks like December or January.
- Boeing’s initial compensation offers.
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 21, 2019, © Leeham News: New York: The grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX was expected to be a hot topic of conversation on the sidelines of the Wings Club event here Friday as well as two aviation conferences in town at the same time.
And it was.
How long would the grounding last? What’s the long-term impact on MAX values? How many cancellations might there be?
And then the media frenzy began and the Twittersphere went wild.
Reuters reported that a pilot at Boeing experienced, in 2016—two years before the Lion Air crash—the symptoms of a runaway MCAS in a simulator.
The new focus in aircraft development, the production
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 17, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Over the last decades the focus for new airliner projects has been technological advancements in aerodynamics, structures, engines, and avionics. This has offered 15% efficiency gains for the new airliners over the aircraft they replace. While still important, the next airliner projects have an additional focus which has moved to the top of the list. The production phase and how to improve its many parts.
The parts include development for automation, efficient partnering/sourcing and how to reduce the expensive learning phase of the production. We will cover this change in a series of articles around the 9th Aviation Forum, an up-and-coming Munich conference that focuses on these themes.
Is re-engining the Boeing 767 a good idea?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
October 17, 2019, © Leeham News: FlightGlobal writes Boeing is investigating re-engining the 767-400ER with GE GEnx engines to produce a new freighter and perhaps a passenger aircraft as a replacement for the NMA project. Development costs would be lower and it would be easier to get a business plan which closes for the upgraded 767 than for the NMA.
We commented on the idea earlier in the week and here follows a technical analysis of what re-engining the 767 would bring.
Summary:
- The 767 is 40 years old in its base design. We look at the fundamentals to understand the trades involved in extending its life with new engines.
- We also compare the 767 technologies with those for the NMA to understand the compromises of an updated 767RE compared with a clean sheet NMA.
737 MAX special report
Oct. 16, 2019: AlJazeera produced a 30 minute special report on the Boeing 737 MAX.
Unlike the hour-long hit piece on the 787 several years ago, undertaken with questionable tactics, this one is well done.
See the report below.
Pontifications: Muilenburg loses chairman’s title; are his days numbered?
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Look for Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg to leave in 2020.
At least this is my view.
But some aerospace analysts I spoke with over the weekend are split. Some believe Friday’s action by the Boeing Board of Directors “stripping” (as most media headlines and stories positioned it) the chairman’s title from Muilenburg, while his retaining the president and CEO titles, is the first step in easing him out the door next year. This is my view, too.
Muilenburg also remains on the Board.
Others think handing the non-executive chairman’s title to lead director David Calhoun is actually an effort to save Muilenburg’s job.
Here’s the divergent thinking. None of the analysts wanted to be identified because by investment bank policy, their remarks hadn’t been cleared for quotation and none had yet issued research notes in reaction.
The time for a 767RE passenger model has come and gone
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Introduction
Oct. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing is reconsidering a previous idea to re-engine the 767 with GEnx powerplants, Flight Global reported last week.
The idea was run up the flagpole, so-to-speak, in 2017.
Boeing 747-400. Source: Delta Air Lines.
At that time, the 737 MAX was just entering service. There was, of course, no hint of any turbulence on the horizon.
The business case for the New Midmarket Aircraft was difficult even then. So why not look at a 767RE and restarting the 757 line, also up upgrades?
Boeing being Boeing, it looks at everything. It ruled out restarting the 757 line (the challenges would have been pretty daunting).
The 767 got more studious traction, including simply restarting the passenger line and providing a really cheap acquisition. A 767RE, however, was viewed as too complex under the circumstances and it would compete with the 787.
American Airlines and United Airlines were actually interested in the airplane restart.
Summary
- B767F-RE may be to counter A330-900F approach to a major cargo airline.
- B767P-RE likely would be met favorably–by Airbus.
- Re-engining 767 repeats 737RE experience.
JATR study “damning” to Boeing, FAA, New York Times says
Oct. 11, 2019: The international study group that was named to examine the certification of the Boeing 737 MAX and the MCAS system was issued 
today.
The New York Times obtained an advance copy. It wrote that the study is “damning” to Boeing and the FAA.
LNA now has the full study. It may be downloaded here: Final_JATR_Submittal_to_FAA_Oct_2019.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 12
October 11, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we continue our discussion of pitch stability augmentation systems when we have a mechanical (“fly by steel wire”) pitch control system.
Figure 1. The typical pitch moment curve of a modern airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Boeing’s 737 in another pickle, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 8, 2019, ©. Leeham News: The FAA Air Worthiness Directive (AD) for high time Boeing 737 NGs regarding cracked rear pickle forks was issued Thursday last week.
Boeing had a call with 737 NG operators today giving the latest information regarding the cracks. Of the 500 first inspected aircraft, 5% had cracks. These aircraft are now grounded. Boeing is setting up repair lines with the US line starting work on the first NG this week. The expected repair time is three weeks for the first aircraft.
Figure 1. The rear pickle forks carrying the main loads from the wing to the fuselage crack near the rear wing spar. Source: Leeham Co.