The P2F freighters, 757-200P2F versus A321P2F.

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

August 19, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at domestic freighters based on the Boeing 757-200 and the Airbus A321. The 757-200 is a popular Passenger to Freighter (P2F) conversion, but as production of the 757 stopped in 2004, there is a limit to the conversion feed-stock for the model.

At the same time, older A321s are reaching market values where their cost enables competitive P2F conversions.

We use our performance model to check if the A321P2F is a good alternative to the 757-200P2F.

The first EFW A321P2F was delivered to Qantas in October 2020. Source: Qantas.

Summary
  • The feed-stock for the Boeing 757-200 Passenger to Freighter conversions will diminish at some point in the future.
  • The alternative in the same freight volume class is a converted A321. We check how well it fits the bill as an alternative to the 757-200.

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The P2F freighters, 767-300ER versus A330-200 or -300?

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

August 12, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at Cargo companies operating early Boeing 767-200 freighters that look at a replacement for these. Shall it be a 767-300ER or an Airbus A330-200 or -300 conversion freighter?

We use our performance model to understand their characteristics and operational efficiencies.

A Boeing 767 is converted to a freighter. Source: IAI Bedek.

Summary
  • Both the 767-300ER and A330-200/-300 early passenger models will provide ample feed-stock for freighters going forward, as these reach sunset age and can be acquired for the low cost required for a P2F freighter.
  • Which of these freighters are suitable for what type of freight? And what is their efficiency in such operations? We compare them using our performance model.

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The Airbus A350F versus Boeing’s 777-XF.

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

August 5, 2021, © Leeham News: Two weeks ago we compared the launched Airbus A350 freighter with Boeing’s in-service 777F. We found the 777F is a freighter with a very high payload capability, but it faces an ICAO emission and noise ax by 2028, should the present engines be kept.

Boeing’s CEO David Calhoun recently said a freighter version of the 777X might replace the 777F. With seven years to 2028, a development decision for a 777-XF is then imminent. We use our performance model to look at how an A350F and 777-XF would compare.

Summary
  • A new Boeing 777-XF freighter, based on the 777-8 (picture), has to equal or beat an Airbus A350 freighter both on payload and economics.
  • Beating an A350F on capacity and payload is straightforward, the 777-8 is the larger aircraft. On operating costs, it’s a tighter race.

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Airbus delivers strong 1H2021 and launches A350 Freighter

By Bjorn Fehrm

July 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus presented its results for the first half of 2021 today. The company reported a profit of €2.7bn on a turnover of €24.6bn, a very strong result from the -€0.9bn of last year.  Yesterday, the Airbus board gave the go-ahead for the A350 freighter with planned entry into service 2025.

The strong result came from deliveries of 297 commercial aircraft, 100 more than the 196 of 1H2020. Net orders were 38 aircraft (1H2020 196). Guidance for 2021 was increased to 600 airliner deliveries with operating profit at €4bn and Free Cash Flow of €2bn.

Artist impression of the A350 Freighter. Credit: la-livery.net

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How good will an Airbus A350F be? Part 2.

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

July 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the probable data for an Airbus A350 freighter with the market-leading Boeing 777F. We found the 777F is a heavy-duty freighter with a very high payload capability.

Airbus has to use the A350-1000 toolbox to design something similar. The aircraft would be shorter than a -1000, however, to optimize its efficiency. How much better in efficiency than the 777F would it be? We put both in our performance model and fly them from China to the US.

Summary
  • An Airbus A350 freighter has to come close to the 104t payload of the 777F.
  • Can it do that, it has convincing economics compared with the 777F.

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Pontifications: A330-300 could be great deal ahead

May 10, 2021, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic prompted airlines to ground more than 8,000 aircraft at the peak.

By Scott Hamilton

Among widebodies, no aircraft was hit harder than the Airbus A330ceo.

Traffic within China, the US and Asia recovers with narrowbody airplanes. European short- and medium-haul traffic is not recovering as quickly due to continued boarder closings. International traffic, for the same reason, remains awful.

But in chaos some see opportunities.

Jep Thornton, managing partner of the boutique lessor Aerolease, last week said the A330-300 could be a great trading opportunity.

At April 1, there were 267 -300s and 286 A330-200s (of all types) in storage, according to data reviewed by LNA.

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Restoring capacity with the A330ceo or A330neo, Part 2

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

June 25, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we started looking at the Airbus A330-200 market and whether to hold on to one’s A330-200 or restoring capacity after the COVID-19 shut-down with the newer A330-800.

We looked at the history of the A330-200, the reasons it sold 642 units to date, and why the sequel, the A330-800, is not selling well.

We dig deeper into the replacement question today. In a post-pandemic world, is holding on to or even leasing an A330-200 for long-range operations the better alternative, or should we take delivery of a new A330-800?

Summary
  • The A330-200 was Airbus’ best aircraft for long and thin routes.
  • As the A330-300 and later A330-900 grew its range, the A330-200 and A330-800 market shrunk.
  • For long and thin routes, is keeping/leasing an A330-200 or taking delivery of an A330-800 the better alternative?

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How much of International passenger flights can be paid by belly cargo? Part 2.

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

June 11, 2020, © Leeham News: As international passenger traffic slowly recovers, how much of the cost of flying passengers on the international routes can be paid by the freight under the floor?

We discussed the base parameters to answer this question in last week’s article. Now we calculate the revenues from passengers traffic and Cargo and compare them with the operational costs.

 

Summary:

  • The high freight prices make it possible to resume international passenger flights without losses on routes where there is substantial freight demand.
  • As belly freight capacity comes back to the market the freight prices will decline, but by then the passenger load factors should be on the way up.

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How much of International passenger flights can be paid by belly cargo ?

By Bjorn Fehrm

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Introduction

June 4, 2020, © Leeham News: Air cargo prices are at an all-time high. The air cargo demand is down 28% compared with the same time last year, but the capacity has disappeared faster. Half of the world’s cargo was flying in the bellies of passenger aircraft, and as these were grounded, 50% of the world-wide cargo capacity went missing.

Airlines have taken the seats out of passenger jets and now fly them as belly freighters with light pandemic protective gear cargo in the cabins on special authorization from the authorities. This has alleviated the capacity crunch somewhat but demand and capacity still don’t match. As a result, cargo prices stay high.

As international passenger traffic slowly recovers, how much of the cost of flying passengers on the international routes can be paid by high priced freight in the bellies of the aircraft?

Summary:
  • While domestic passenger traffic shows the first signs of recovery, international traffic will take long to recover.
  • At the same time, cargo prices are two to three times higher than normal for international routes within Asia and between Asia and the US or Europe.
  • How much of the bills for flying international passenger traffic in the recovery period can be paid by cargo in the bellies of these jets?

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Lessor exposure to Airbus, Boeing wide-bodies

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By Scott Hamilton

May 18, 2020, © Leeham News: As airlines park or retire thousands of aircraft, lessors with wide-body airplanes are most at risk.

Single-aisle airplanes are easier to re-lease and more in demand when traffic recovers. Reconfiguration and maintenance costs, if required, are reasonable by aviation standards. Cabin reconfiguration may run up to $1m. Airframe and engine MRO costs for Airbus A320s and Boeing 737s typically are in the low millions, depending on condition.

MRO and reconfigurations costs for wide-body airplanes, on the other hand, can cost more than a new A320 or 737. GE Aviation GE90s on Boeing 777-200LRs, -300s and -300ERs are notoriously expensive. MRO for Rolls-Royce wide-body engines is costly under RR’s contract packages.

Reconfiguration costs for A330s, 777s and A380s can run up to $30m, depending on the initial operator and who the second (or third) one will be. Therefore, HiFly did not reconfigure the ex-Singapore Airlines Airbus A380 it acquired after SQ retired the airplane.

LNA analyzed the number of wide-bodies owned by lessors. There are more than 670 Airbuses and more than 600 Boeings.

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