Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
- How’s the next new aircraft produced? Part 2. Advancing the State of the Art
- Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 6. IT support.
- How’s the next new aircraft produced? Part 1. The starting point.
- Trump tariffs beginning to hurt US aerospace companies; EU competitors to benefit
- Bjorn’s Corner: Faster aircraft development. Part 5. Market research.
Pre-Paris Air Show discussion and AirInsight preview
AinInsight will host a live pre-Paris Air Show discussion Friday, with guest Richard Aboulafia of the Teal Group. Sign up to participate here.
Also look for AirInsight’s Paris Air Show preview next week. We historically have done air show previews here but this year we’re combining our thoughts with our partners, Ernie Arvai and Addison Schonland at AirInsight. AirInsight will go down the airframe and engine OEMs with our outlook for orders and announcements.
Addison and I will be at the air show, providing daily coverage. I’m also attending the Boeing pre-air show briefings this week (with news embargoed to June 19); and the EADS/Airbus media day June 18, at which there will be an A350 briefing that had been scheduled for May 31 but was postponed to the media day.
Just a hint of AirInsight’s preview next week: we’re expecting Airbus to announced and firm up several hundred orders for the A320neo and more A380 orders; Boeing may have some 747-8I orders ready to announce; Bombardier should have more CSeries orders; CFM will get its first LEAP-X orders on the neo (and these will be large numbers) while Pratt & Whitney will continue to add to the GTF book; Embraer won’t announce a new airplane and neither will Boeing; ATR (an EADS company) will have a nice turbo-prop order; and we expect a major announcement from Rolls-Royce.
Posted on June 1, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip
Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.
This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?
Posted on May 31, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
McNerney’s interesting comments on the new airplane
We’re off hiatus, having completed several projects that now gives us some time to pay attention to this column.
It didn’t seem to get much pickup but on the Boeing 1Q earnings call, CEO Jim McNerney said something on the call that really perked up our ears.
First, some necessary context.
Odds and Ends: Boeing basks in 777 orders as A350 falters
Odds and Ends this week:
- Boeing had a good week with 777 orders from a variety of customers, though some were previously unidentified ones that had already been booked. Back in January we predicted that Boeing will see a stream of orders that will justify increased production. Boeing has announced a rate of 8.3 per month and we can reveal it is considering going to 10 per month.
- Meanwhile, Airbus confirmed that it faces mounting challenges with the production timeline for the A350. For the moment it is still sticking with the EIS of 2H2013. We fully expect this to slip into 2014. At the moment, our conclusion is that the A350 will be a year late. This may change.
- Dominic Gates has this interesting story about Boeing proceeding with a 787-10.
- The Air Force Times has an interesting article analyzing the tanker competition.
- Airbus and Boeing are engaged in their usual public bickering over the strategies in the A320/737 class. Airbus launched the NEO and claims this provides enough fuel burn reductions to make the program worthwhile. (We think the boost in range to the A320 and A321 have as much to do with the program as anything else.) Airbus is right. Boeing claims re-engining doesn’t provide enough fuel burn benefit to make re-engining worthwhile on a net, all-in cash-on-cash basis to be worthwhile. Boeing makes a good argument on this narrow basis, but this ignores the environmental benefits to re-engining and other factors. Airbus says there isn’t going to be a real convergence of technology until 2025-27 to justify a new airplane. Boeing believes there is enough new technology available to justify a new airplane by 2019. We think they are both right–and both are wrong.
- EADS CEO Louis Gallois said the KC-X tanker effort boosted EADS’ standing with the Department of Defense despite losing.
- The new PW GTF and CFM LEAP-X engines aren’t in service yet and PW is already working on its next generation GTF and CFM is working on the open rotor. Flight Global has a lengthy story about it.
- Aspire Aviation takes a look at Cathay Pacific’s financial results.
Posted on March 14, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and Ends: Boeing to compete production site for new 737-class airplane
Odds and Ends begins below the photo.
We’re not big on photos but every once in a while we find one that we’ve very impressed with–like this (via Airliners.net) at LAX:
Posted on March 7, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
2011 Outlook for Aerospace
Note: this is unusually long, 11 pages when printed.
The new year is here and it is time for our annual look-ahead for the big OEMs.
On a macro level, 2011 should be a good year. Airline passenger and cargo traffic recovery should continue. The global economy also is recovering, but it is almost painfully slow to do so. Still, this is better than some of the alternatives.
Airlines and lessors are likely to continue their order stream that resumed in mid-2010 at the Farnborough Air Show. There could be some key orders that will influence the OEMs and their strategies going forward.
On the military front, we are much more limited in our tracking. We follow the KC-X tanker program because the offerings are based on commercial airliners. We slightly follow the P-8A Poseidon for the same reason, but Boeing pretty much has the monopoly for this type airplane, so there isn’t much to follow.
We do closely follow cybersecurity issues, if for no other reason than it is so important but also because key aerospace companies, including Boeing, have major efforts in this arena.
But by and large, we focus on the OEMs, the emerging competitors and the new engines.
So let’s get to it.
Posted on January 3, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus NEO won’t kill CSeries: New study
Airbus’ A320 NEO won’t kill the Bombardier CSeries, a new study concludes, issued today by AirInsight.
The study, “The Business Case for the Bombardier CSeries,” which we co-authored, is discussed on the AirInsight blog.
The study began as an update to AirInsight’s report in December 2009 on the prospect of re-engining the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 families. As Airbus COO-Customers John Leahy repeatedly asserted that to re-engine the A320 would kill the business case for the CSeries, AirInsight broadened its update into a full, in-depth study. AirInsight concluded that the business case for the CSeries is sound.
Posted on December 6, 2010 by Scott Hamilton
Boeing’s 737 ramp up shows confidence in economy, ‘skyline’ and the unions
The announcement last week that Boeing once again is planning to ramp up production of its venerable 737 line show confidence on a number of levels:
- The global economy continues to recover;
- The strength of the backlog, aka “skyline,’ is strong;
- The efficiency of the Lean production line only gets better; and
- The confidence in the labor unions (notably IAM 751) appears to be gaining strength compared with the depths of anger following the 2008 57-day strike and the October 2009 decision to put the second assembly line for the 787 in Charleston (SC).
Posted on September 20, 2010 by Scott Hamilton
737 production rate hike, PW’s GTF, Airbus’ A320 NEO
We talk about the prospect of a production rate hike at AirInsight this morning.
- Here’s a story from Flight Global taking a detailed, focused look at the Pratt & Whitney P1000G Geared Turbo Fan, which will power the Bombardier CSeries, Irkut MC-21 and Mitsubishi MRJ; and will likely be chosen by Airbus to power the A320 family New Engine Option.
- Speaking of the A320 NEO, look for an announcement on September 30 or shortly thereafter giving the green light for this program.
- Embraer is also considering whether to reengine its E-Jet series with the GTF.
- Flight International has this detailed report on the Bombardier CSeries to be the first airplane to have telemetry for the black box flight data recorder.
Posted on September 2, 2010 by Scott Hamilton
AirInsight on 787, 747-8 delays; A321 NEO
AirInsight has several commentaries about the news last week of new delays in the Boeing 787 and 747-8 programs; and a discussion about the prospective A321 New Engine Option. The main site is here.
Posted on August 30, 2010 by Scott Hamilton