Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
CFM to increase LEAP production 50% this year, GE Aerospace executives say
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By Bryan Corliss
March 10, 2023, © Leeham News – GE Aerospace executives said Thursday that production of LEAP engines will increase 50% this year to meet increased demand from Boeing and Airbus.
LEAP engines, which power Airbus A320 Neos and Boeing 737 MAX jets, are produced by CFM, the joint-venture partnership between U.S.-based GE and French-based Safran.
“This is no small feat,” said GE CEO of Commercial Engines and Services Russell Stokes. He noted that the network for LEAP includes 160 external suppliers and 20 internal GE shops.
Stokes, GE CEO Larry Culp and other executives spoke at GE’s 2023 Investor Conference.
- Strong demand driving Commercial growth
- GE9X growth expected in 2025
- 70% of GE Aerospace revenues from services
- Work continues on SAF, RISE
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Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 3P. Airframe improvements
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By Bjorn Fehrm
March 10, 2023, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to New aircraft technologies. Part 3. Airframe improvements. It discusses in detail the areas of an airliner airframe where tangible improvement can be made to make it more efficient and thus lower cost combined with less Green-House-Gas (GHG) emissions.
Hydrogen flight integrator AeroTec created 3,000 parts in 12 months
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By Bryan Corliss
March 9, 2023 © Leeham News – AeroTec learned “a lot about hydrogen” as it prepared Universal Hydrogen’s (UH2) Dash-8-300 flying testbed for its first flight last week.
AeroTec Chief Technology Officer Dale Goulding./AeroTec photo
“Hydrogen wants to escape,” said Dale Goulding, the chief technology officer for Seattle-based AeroTec. “It’s a very small molecule that wants to get out of whatever container you put it in.”
For that reason, Universal Hydrogen’s modular capsule makes refueling easier than it would be if the companies tried to replicate the fuel-pumping process used to refuel carbon-powered aircraft, he said.
“It’s been no problem at all,” Goulding said. “Just roll them in and out. It’s real easy.”
Goulding led a team of roughly 60 AeroTec employees working out of Grant County International Airport in Moses Lake, WA., which was where Universal Hydrogen’s first flight took place on March 2. The plane took two passes over the airfield, flying with a hydrogen fuel cell powering one propeller, while a second kerosene-powered motor was on idle, in case it was needed.
The short flight was intended to “get up, get down safely, then look at all the data,” he said; taking concepts out of the lab and putting them into the sky.
- Hydrogen fuel cell, electric motor power propeller
- AeroTec hustled to create 3,000 unique parts
- Next steps are up to Universal Hydrogen
First flight of Universal Hydrogen Dash 8 opens new era, company says
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By Scott Hamilton
March 6, 2023, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen (UH2) last week took off with its demonstrator aircraft for what it believes is the beginning of a new era.
The first flight of a hydrogen-powered De Havilland Dash 8-300, developed by Universal Hydrogen, occurred on March 2, 2023. Credit: Leeham News.
The Dash 8-300 took off from the Moses Lakes (WA) airport at 8:41 am on March 2 for a short flight circling the former US Air Force Base, now called Grant County International Airport. On one circle, the test pilots throttled back the Jet A-fueled Pratt & Whitney PW123 engine, flying on the No. 2 electric motor, powered by hydrogen fuel.
Thus, UH2’s Dash 8 became the second largest plane (after the Soviet-era Tu-155) to fly on hydrogen and the first to fly solely on clean energy given that the No. 1 engine was at idle.
LNA previously reported details of UH2’s airplane plans.
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How UH2 moves forward is detailed below.
Summary
- UH2 raised $100m. Another $200m-$250m is required to bring the aircraft to market.
- UH2 has 247 orders and commitments.
- ATR-72 will be the first H2-powered airliner to enter service. The Dash 8-300 will follow.
- A fueling company, not an airplane company.
Analysis: Washington may be best state for aerospace; it needs to get better
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By Bryan Corliss
March 2, 2023, © Leeham News – The AeroDynamic Advisory’s latest Aerospace Competitive Economics Study is out, and while its findings were overshadowed by the comments the firm’s two managing directors made about Boeing that week, there is good data in the report that should be acted upon.
The Washington State Capitol in Olympia.
Particularly if you’re a Washington state lawmaker concerned about the long-term future of your state’s economy.
Washington remains the most-competitive state in America for manufacturing aerostructures and final assembly of aircraft, AeroDynamic determined. It finished ahead of Texas, but while Texas was ”impressive,” it was still “well behind Washington in its overall competitiveness,” the report says.
However, when you take a deeper dive into the numbers, there are some clear gaps in the Washington state game. With the state’s Legislature currently in session in Olympia, it’s our hope (as parochial residents of the Evergreen State), that somebody puts this report in front of policy makers, and that it motivates them to take action this year.
- Taxes, incentives aren’t pressing issues
- Spend more on roads and rails
- Lower building costs by spreading the cluster
- Invest more in research, education
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Universal Hydrogen’s first flight nears
- Universal Hydrogen nears first flight of containerized fueling concept.
- Eviation’s Alice all-electric airplane offers another option for clean skies.
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 27, 2023, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen (UH2) is just days away from the first flight of its hydrogen tank concept in a converted De Havilland Canada Dash 8-300.
The flight will be from the Grant County International Airport at Moses Lake in Central Washington State. As such, weather—which is often unpredictable here—could upset plans. So far, the forecast is favorable if cold.
UH2’s conversion removes seats from the aft portion of the passenger cabin to make way for two large tanks to install through a main deck cargo-size door cut into the fuselage. A similar approach is underway in France with an ATR-72.
The liquid hydrogen (LH2) containers are trucked from the refueling source and loaded onto the planes. Then, when near empty, these are swapped for refueling with other tanks filled with hydrogen for the next flight.
Universal Hydrogen’s concept for an H2-powered airplane centers on two fuel tanks at the aft end of the passenger cabin. This example is the ATR-72. A De Havilland Dash 8-300 is also being converted. Credit: Universal Hydrogen.
This concept solves the hydrogen supply problem at any airport. The ATR-72 capacity goes from 72 passengers to 56, a reduction of 28%. This dramatic reduction in revenue seats calls for a reset of cost and revenue per available seat mile, but for a first entry into the hydrogen field, it’s an important step in the quest for clean aviation. LNA believes that UH2 has the most viable hydrogen concept of all at the moment because the company addresses the hydrogen supply problem without the billions of dollars needed for airport infrastructure and pipelines.
Related stories
Moses Lake is the same airport used by Eviation for the first flight last year of its Alice electric aircraft. Its CEO, Gregory Davis, outlined the Alice concept at this month’s annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA).
The pros and cons of Boeing launching a new airplane program sooner than later
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 23, 2023, © Leeham News: Many, outside of Wall Street analysts and stockholders, are critical of the decision by Boeing CEO David Calhoun to suspend the development of a new airplane. It will be the middle of the next decade before the company “introduces” a new one.
The view from this month’s Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) Conference is split. Speakers like Kevin Michaels and Richard Aboulafia, both from the consultancy AeroDynamics Advisory, favor launching a new airplane program sooner than later. So does aerospace analyst Ron Epstein of Bank of America. He’s a rarity among Wall Street analysts.
While Calhoun pointed to the lack of step-change engine technology as the reason to suspend any development today, LNA previously pointed out that Boeing simply may not be ready internally. Production of the 737 MAX remains challenging and somewhat erratic. The 787 is ticking along at a mere one-half airplane a month. Certification of the 737-7, 737-10, and 777X have yet to be achieved. Boeing’s debt remains in the tens of billions of dollars; about $5bn in due this year alone.
And then there is the supply chain. It’s simply not ready, either. It’s struggling with materials and labor shortages. Some laborers are new and inexperienced. Even Airbus continues to struggle to make its delivery targets. It fell short last year by a wide margin and in January delivered only 20 airplanes.
Calhoun would have had better messaging on these points rather than simply saying technology isn’t advanced enough yet (which is only partly true). Critics may have been more easily persuaded.
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A deep dive into the twin-aisle market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 20, 2023, © Leeham News: Last month, LNA analyzed the single-aisle market order opportunities for Airbus, Boeing, COMAC, Embraer, and UAC. We now focus on the twin-aisle duopoly of Airbus and Boeing.
Unlike in the single-aisle market, Boeing leads in market share: 64% nominally and 69% after Boeing’s at-risk ASC 606 adjustments and LNA’s assessment for Airbus, which doesn’t publish at-risk order numbers. If we exclude government and freighter orders, Boeing’s market share lead is 60% and 65% after at-risk adjustments.
However, the A330ceo family has the broadest operator base, and there are still almost 1,000 units in passenger service. LNA investigates the order twin-aisle aircraft order books and assesses replacement opportunities for both OEMs based on the in-service fleet.
Summary
- Boeing has the edge in the in-service fleet;
- Breaking down the order books between replacements and growth;
- Keep track of order choices for older-generation operators;
- Flip orders and airlines that did not order;
- The twin-aisle freighter market.
What is the ticket price influence of SAF? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Feb. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the ticket price influence if airline fuel costs would increase going forward, either through increased use of Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF, or higher environmental emission fees.
We realized that ticket prices have other parts than fuel and aircraft-related costs. For instance, an airline has sales and marketing, administration, and airport ground staff. We got an overview of such cost parts depending on whether the airline was a mainline carrier or a Low-Cost Carrier (LCC).
Now we use this knowledge and our airliner performance and cost model to check the influence of varying fuel and emission costs on ticket prices going forward.
Figure 1. Jet fuel price variation over time. Source: IATA Jet Fuel Price Monitor.
Summary:
- We check the influence of SAF blends and EU emission permits on end-of-decade energy costs.
- Then we discuss how increased flight energy costs can influence ticket pricing.
Aerospace supply chain needs capital, which isn’t always easy to find–and it may be expensive
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By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 13, 2023, © Leeham News: The aerospace supply chain is still struggling to recover from the grounding of the Boeing 737 MAX, the suspension of deliveries of the 787, the delays to the Boeing 777X, and the COVID pandemic.
Labor shortages and workforce quality/experience is also a challenge for the supply chain.
Profits remain elusive and capital is available at high interest rates, if at all. CFM, GE, Pratt & Whitney, and Rolls-Royce continue to face technical challenges with their engines. The CFM LEAP and PW Geared TurboFan engines have durability issues and must be taken off wing for maintenance and warranty work at a fraction of the time their predecessor engines were on wing.
It’s a rather bleak picture painted of the state of the aerospace industry during the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance (PNAA) last week in a Seattle suburb.
Summary
- Suppliers need capital; Boeing should return to 30-day payment terms for immediate capital injection.
- Recovery not over, suppliers can make better investments in defense.
- Without a new airplane, there’s no reason for suppliers to invest in commercial.