Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
The range of Airbus’ A321XLR
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 31, 2023, © Leeham News: The advertised range of 4,700nm for Airbus’ A321XLR enables true trans-Atlantic single-aisle routes that can originate inland both in the US and in Europe. It was, therefore, worrying when EASA and FAA demanded that Airbus add extra fire protection in the area where the new center tank is placed, the tank that enables the longer range.
Extra fire protection increases the empty weight, which has an impact on range. How much is lost, and what can Airbus do about it? We model the range shortfall and possible fixes with our Aircraft Performance and Cost model.
Figure 1. The Airbus A321XLR. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The A321XLR is the first trans-Atlantic single-aisle airliner that can fly further than coast to coast between the US and Europe.
- The range shortfall from the rumored weight increases is less than written about but still troublesome.
The back story to a Chinese lessor sale of 737 MAX orders
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 28, 2023, © Leeham News: The order in February by Air India for 190 737 MAXes involves a backstory involving China that until now hasn’t been told. A subsequent sale by a Chinese lessor of all 737 MAX orders to a Middle Eastern lessor further reduces Boeing’s exposure to China.
The Air India was finalized at the June Paris Air Show. When Boeing announced its second quarter financial results the following month, the MAX inventory accumulated during the 21 month grounding of the type was reduced by 55 aircraft. These 55 MAXes were part of the inventory of 140 737s that were built for Chinese airlines and lessors.
Subsequently, the Chinese lessor CALC announced a deal to sell its entire MAX backlog of 54 to the Emirates lessor, DAE. Purchase rights to some 50 more MAXes were also transferred to DAE. This transaction left CALC with no 737s on its order books.
In its 2022 annual report, the most recent CALC financial statements available, the lessor wrote, “As at 31 December 2022, CALC had 226 aircraft on its orderbook, including 131 Airbus, 66 Boeing and 29 COMAC aircraft.”
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 7.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 24, 2023, © Leeham News: We have looked at the promises the VTOL industry made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as the VTOLs come closer to Certification and production.
We started by using Joby and Archer as examples; now, we wrap the series by looking at some other top VTOL OEMs and how their claims have changed as the projects come closer to reality.
Figure 1. The Lilium jet VTOL. Source: Lilium.
Summary:
- Joby Aviation and Archer are not alone in backpedaling on promised performance as certification nears; other OEMs that are investor-financed have the same problem.
- In summary, the VTOLs in the first generation can only fly short-range missions. Longer flights run into energy reserve and cost problems.
KMC’s “low risk” 777 P2F approach struggles to get traction
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By Judson Rollins
August 21, 2023, © Leeham News: Converting Boeing 777-300ER passenger aircraft to freighters has been fraught with challenges. One need only ask longtime P2F provider IAI, whose debut -300ER freighter has flown only once – nearly five months ago. Even Boeing shelved its own P2F plans for lack of a viable business case.
Photo credit: KMC.
Kansas Modification Center (KMC), launched just two years ago, believes it offers a P2F concept with a smoother path to certification. KMC says its competitive edge is a forward cargo door, requiring less structural reinforcement and thus significant weight savings versus an aft door.
KMC believes it will receive FAA type certification by December 2024, with European regulator EASA expected to follow in early 2025.
LNA received a program briefing from Jorge Della Costa, KMC’s CEO, and Eric Kivett, program manager at contractor National Institute for Aviation Research (NIAR) WERX. NIAR WERX, a unit of Wichita State University, provides engineering and modification services for KMC’s forthcoming 777-300ERCF.
Summary
- Front loading door saves weight but may add loading challenges.
- Lead engineering partner brings prior conversion experience.
- Local partnerships, short supply chain reduce production risk.
- Certification risk mitigated by human factors planning, not modifying software.
- Lack of sales, capital are open questions.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 6.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 17, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
We used our Aircraft Performance and Cost model to understand the data for the typical missions for the Joby S4 and Archer Midnight VTOLs and how the economics pans out for these missions. We now look at the results and compare them to what’s been projected from the OEMs.
Figure 1. The Joby S4 VTOL. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
- We found the VTOL OEM’s economics for the typical 10-minute shuttle flights optimistic.
- When we go back and look at investor deck projections, the cost comparison to helicopter costs were totally off the mark. When we correct this the VTOL is more expensive to operate then an equivalent helicopter.
United selects GEnx for order for 100 787s
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 14, 2023, © Leeham News: United Airlines quietly selected GE engines for its order in December last year for 100 Boeing 787-9s, according to Boeing’s website. The order isn’t finalized and neither GE nor United would comment.
There had been speculation that UAL might order Rolls-Royce engines as a mitigation for cancelling 45 Airbus A350-900s, which is powered exclusively by RR. United repeatedly deferred delivery of the A350s, which were ordered by previous managements. United inherited a large order for 787s when it merged with Continental Airlines and placed repeat orders for the 787 after the merger. The A350s essentially are duplicative to the 787s.
United placed large orders for the Airbus A321neo at a time when Boeing at first dithered whether to launch the New Midmarket Aircraft. UAL added to the neo order during the time when Boeing was unable to pursue any new airplane program due to the extended grounding of the MAX and during the COVID pandemic.
The reality behind the eVTOL industry’s hyperbole, Part 5.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 10, 2023, © Leeham News: We look at the promises that the VTOL industry has made in their Investor prospects and what the reality is as they come closer to Certification and production.
After looking at claims of range and utility, we now look at the operating economics. We go through the different cost factors for a VTOL, add them up, and compare them with the industries’ projections.
Figure 1. The Archer Aviation Midnight VTOL mockup at the Paris Air show. Source: Leeham Co.
Summary:
· The VTOL OEMs state their economics for 10-minute shuttle flights while claiming the VTOL can also fly flights four times longer.
· Yes, the VTOLs can indeed fly these longer flights, but then the economics fall apart.
Boeing reveals sub-type orders for MAX, 777X for the first time
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 9, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing yesterday revealed the orders for sub-types for the 737 MAX and 777X, the first time it has done so publicly.
The Seattle Times first reported the MAX detail.
The MAX data is largely similar to LNA’s estimates over the years, in which we analyzed the backlog, including Unidentified customers, to percentages. When the MAX 10 was program was launched, customers who ordered the MAX 8 or MAX 9 switched some of these to the MAX 10. Others have done so since then.
MAX orders remain concentrated around the MAX 8 and the high-capacity MAX 8 200, also known as the MAX 8200. Seventy-one percent of the MAX orders in backlog are for these two aircraft types. In contrast, 62% of the Airbus A320neo family backlog is for the largest model, the A321neo. Boeing’s direct competitor to the A321neo, the MAX 10, represents 19% of the MAX backlog.
The MAX 7 and MAX 10 have yet to be certified. Only the A321XLR remains to be certified of all the A320neo family variants.
Spirit Aero losses, cash burn continue
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By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 7, 2023, © Leeham News: Spirit AeroSystems reported another loss-making quarter last week as more special charges in Airbus and Boeing programs.
Spirit is a major supplier to Airbus and Boeing. Airbus receives A350 fuselage panels, some A320 wing components and the A220 wings from Spirit. Boeing receives entire 737 fuselages and the nose sections for the 767/KC-46A, 777 and 787 from Spirit.
Spirit accumulated more than $2.8bn in operating losses and more than $3.5bn in net losses since 2019, the last full year before the COVID pandemic began in March 2020. The global fleet of 737 MAXes was grounded in March 2019 following two fatal accidents five months apart. Production of the 737 was suspended in the fall of 2019. Deliveries resumed 21 months later.
Deliveries of the 787 were suspended in October 2020 after Boeing discovered tiny gaps in the fuselage joins on aircraft and other, unrelated issues. One of the gap problems—no bigger than the thickness of a piece of paper—was traced to Spirit.
Quality control problems with 737 fuselages were discovered last year and with the vertical fin this year. All Boeing events resulted in charges.
A supplier in the A220 wing program declared bankruptcy and ceased operations, resulting in a charge. Charges were also taken in the A350 program as production was cut during the pandemic.
Airbus and Boeing advanced hundreds of millions of dollars to Spirit to help keep the company afloat. Spirit refinanced $900m in debt last year at an interest rate of 9 3/8%, at the time an above-market rate that indicates the risk factor banks view Spirit.