Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
With Boeing’s decision against new airplanes, Airbus will stand down, too
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By Scott Hamilton
Kiran Rao. Credit: Airborne Capital.
Nov. 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing’s decision to suspend the launch of any new airplane until the middle of the next decade means innovation of any kind from any company is largely dead for the next decade.
Airbus won’t launch a new airplane either, now that Boeing has stood down, says its former chief strategic officer, Kiran Rao. Rao is now an advisor to airlines and lessors. He had been with Airbus for 25 years in sales and product strategy.
While Boeing’s decision to suspend new airplane development casts a dark cloud over its strategic future, Airbus now is going to rest on its own status quo, Rao said.
Summary
- Airbus engineers will atrophy.
- Boeing was “one step away from checkmate” against Airbus in 2005-2006 and made a big mistake not taking up the opportunity.
- GE and Safran don’t want to innovate. Pratt & Whitney can’t do much beyond today.
- Boeing should have launched the NMA. It would have beaten the A321XLR.
- The NMA would have created a new market.
The A350 enhancements, Part 3
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
A350 Fuselage, Credit: Airbus
Nov. 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we saw the impact of the New Production Standard (NPS) on the Airbus A350-900’s economic performance against the Boeing 787-10. While using a ten-abreast economy class cabin configuration negatively impacted passenger comfort, it significantly improved the relative competitiveness of the A350-900.
We now turn our attention to the larger variant that will benefit from the NPS, the A350-1000, and compare it against its closest competitor, the 777-9.
Summary
- Future major large-twin sales campaigns;
- Comparing aircraft cabins;
- The extra seat changes the economic pecking order;
- It is not all about unit costs.
Excluding China in Boeing forecast recognizes trade, geopolitical realities
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 8, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun last week said Boeing’s future through at least 2025/2026 doesn’t include assuming China is part of its equations.
It’s a good thing. Relations between the US and China are heading south. The Pentagon last week outlined an extremely pessimistic outlook pointing to future military conflict with China. The Biden Administration not only didn’t reverse tariffs imposed in 2017 by the Trump Administration, but in some respects, Biden upped the game.
Related Article
Boeing started remarketing 737 MAXes ordered by China. It also began taking engines off those airplanes to put onto new production aircraft. Boeing—and others—don’t see China taking any new deliveries from China in the next two or three years or placing orders with Boeing.
Michael McAdoo of Boston Consulting Group. Credit: Leeham News.
Trade publication Airfinance Journal reported Oct. 31 that nearly one in five leased aircraft owned by Chinese lessors are being offered for sale to non-Chinese interests. LNA previously reported that Chinese lessors were being allowed to accept a small number of MAXes providing they were leased outside China.
A trade expert for Boston Consulting Group outlined how he sees relations between China, the US and Europe in an Oct. 26 interview with LNA.
Summary
- China considers the US to be the enemy, one well-placed observer notes.
- The US, EU see China differently.
- Airbus has a window of opportunity.
How Boeing can pursue new airplane sooner than 2030 decade
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By Scott Hamilton
Nov. 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing is methodically working through the full return of the 737 MAX to service, a process that will continue to early 2025 to clear the stored inventory. There were 270 stored MAXes at the end of the third quarter, Sept. 30.
David Calhoun. Source: Boeing.
Delivering 115 787s that were built but stored during a pause of nearly 20 months from October 2020 will also take two years to complete.
Ramping up production of each line is a slow, arduous process. The 737 line was shut down in December 2019. The line now is geared to produce 31 737s a month, though meeting this target has been erratic.
The 787 line in Everett was shut down permanently and the Charleston (SC) line was reduced to just half an airplane per month. It will be a couple of years before production returns to 5/mo, the level at the start of the pandemic and reduced when deliveries were suspended.
CEO David Calhoun said stability and reliability are keys to Boeing’s recovery from the MAX and pandemic crises that sapped finances and all but destroyed a once-sterling credibility.
Calhoun also said he has no plans to launch an airplane program to fill a gap in the product line—a reference to Boeing’s weak position vis-à-vis the Airbus A321neo. Rather, he wants to launch a game-changing airplane that at a minimum is 20% more efficient than today’s aircraft. He believes engines coming off today’s technology will only host a 10% gain.
He added that Boeing won’t launch a new airplane program until the next decade because a new engine won’t be ready until then. He made his remarks at the first investors day since 2018. Three weeks before that, Boeing hosted a meeting with advisors, consultants, and opinion makers.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 44P. eVTOL operating costs. The deeper discussion.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
November 4, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 44, eVTOL operating costs. It discusses the typical operating costs we can expect from an eVTOL when used in an air taxi operation.
Despite the operation of such transports being years off, an eVTOL has dominant cost factors that can be estimated today.
The A350 enhancements, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Nov. 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we described the New Production Standard (NPS) of the Airbus A350. Now we look at the economic performance of the A350-900 versus the Boeing 787-10 on the world’s busiest long-haul route, London Heathrow to New York JFK.
We compare the economics with a nine abreast economy cabin and what difference the NPS and a 10 abrest change for the A350 produces.
Summary
- The 787-10, with its long fuselage, is seat mile cost-optimized for medium long-haul routes.
- Airbus gives the airline the option with the A350 NPS, comfort, or seat mile optimization.
China still needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China, despite interminable limbo
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 31, 2022, © Leeham News: China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China was the conclusion of an analysis by LNA in July 2021. A trade expert last week agreed. Airbus and China’s COMAC won’t be able to fill the future demand forecast for China.
Michael McAdoo, Partner & Director, Global Trade and Investment of the Boston Consulting Group (BCG) in Montreal and a former strategic chief of Bombardier Commercial Aircraft, told LNA in an interview last week that China needs the Boeing 737 MAX and widebody airplanes to meet demand in the near-to-medium term.
It will be long-term before China’s commercial aviation industry will be competitive with airplane designs and production.
Summary
Forecasts for China’s demand for jet aircraft are consistent between Airbus and Boeing. But COMAC, which is the leader of China’s burgeoning commercial aviation industry, is significantly higher in its forecast. The independent Japan Aircraft Development Corp (JADC) is significantly lower.
- Boeing forecasts that China needs 8,485 new jets through 2041.
- Airbus forecasts 8,420 new aircraft will be needed through 2041.
- COMAC forecasts China will need 9,084 aircraft through 2040.
- JADC is more conservative, forecasting a requirement for 6,172 new jets in China through 2041.
Source: Boeing Current Market Outlook.
China will account for 21% of the world’s new aircraft deliveries through 2041, Boeing says.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 43P. eVTOL IFR range. The deeper discussion.
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October 28, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a complementary article to Part 43, eVTOL IFR range. It discusses the typical maximum range we can expect from a certified eVTOL when it faces IFR weather conditions.
Flying in IFR conditions requires flight planning with increased reserves if the eVTOL can’t land at the destination airport and must divert to an alternate airport.
The A350 enhancements, Part 1
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Oct. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Last month, Airbus announced that it started delivering A350s with a New Production Standard (NPS) with Iberia. The upgrades include weight savings, a maximum takeoff weight increase, and a longer and wider cabin.
A350 Fuselage. Credit: Airbus
Except for a few low-cost operators, the economy-class cabin on the A350 has usually featured a nine-abreast configuration with operators. The wider cabin could lead to a wider adoption of a 10-abreast economy class configuration with more A350 operators, for instance the legacy ones.
Despite the lingering effects of the Covid-19 pandemic on long-haul travel, several airlines still need to place sizeable twin-aisle aircraft orders in the coming years. The A350 enhancements could prove crucial in securing orders for Airbus against the competing Boeing 787 and 777X.
In this article series, we will assess how the A350 enhancements impact the economic performance of the aircraft against its main competitors. Before comparing competing aircraft, we define a methodology for consistent comfort standards among different aircraft families.
Summary
- The A350 enhancements in detail;
- A brief history of adding economy class seats in each row;
- Assessing passenger comfort standards;
- Upcoming twin-aisle sales campaigns.
“The music will stop” because aviation will miss target “green” deadlines: Boeing’s Calhoun
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By Scott Hamilton
David Calhoun. Source: Boeing.
Oct. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun believes that the plethora of concepts for shifting to “green” aviation may be confusing policymakers.
And, he says, the pace outlined by the commercial aviation industry may contribute to the confusion.
Calhoun also said that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF), while the most promising near-term technology to reduce aviation emissions, isn’t an easy solution, nor is it a complete solution.
Calhoun made his remarks last month at the US Chamber of Commerce Aerospace Summit in Washington (DC).