Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing sees no new single aisle plane until 2040
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By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 27, 2025, © Leeham News: Recent reports that Boeing is working on a new single-aisle aircraft to replace the 737 MAX and a New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), or a version of it, are fundamentally true but vastly overhyped. At a conference in Prague earlier this month, Boeing’s Darren Hulst put a damper on this speculation, but said only that Boeing was “not close” to launching a new airplane.
Concept of the Boeing New Midmarket Aircraft. Credit: Leeham News.
Boeing hasn’t publicly put any dates on entries into service of its new airplanes, whatever these may be. But internally, Boeing is of the belief that its 737 replacement won’t enter service before 2040.
This doesn’t mean that Boeing’s Product Development unit isn’t working on new airplanes in the background. The company must be ready to respond in case some other OEM introduces a new airplane before then.
Airbus’ CEO Guillaume Faury publicly said several times that it will introduce a replacement for the A320neo in 2038. But there are some within Airbus who dispute this, concluding that new technology needed to justify a new airplane won’t be ready until the 2040 decade.
The driving factor is, of course, new engines. But as LNA’s 13-part series about new airplane technology and 7-part series about new production technologies demonstrate, engines aren’t the only technology needed. However, without significant advances in engine technology, none of the others is sufficient to justify a new airplane.
Perspective on Boeing’s 737 replacement
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 30, 2025, © Leeham News: The Wall Street Journal billed the story as an exclusive, and it did contain details previously unreported.
But the fact that Boeing is working on a 737 replacement isn’t new, even if Boeing has been super-quiet about it. The breadcrumbs have been dropped into public sight all along, and within aviation circles, more has been discussed as well.
Under former CEO David Calhoun, he and other executives discussed the 737 replacement in the form of the transonic truss brace wing (TTBW) single-aisle concept. The very wide, thin wing had about 35 feet of folding wing (as opposed to the folding wing tips on the 777X).
Boeing and Airbus are designing future wings with long folds to allow much greater wingspan than today’s wings. The future folding wings will have a much long fold than the Boeing 777X. Credit: Leeham News.
What Boeing didn’t say publicly, but which was known within aviation circles, was that Boeing was also designing a conventional wing-and-tube 737 replacement in parallel. Boeing always has a Plan A and a Plan B under study, so this was no surprise. But a former 737 program engineer told LNA that Boeing needed a Plan B in this case to serve as a baseline against which the TTBW could be compared for efficiency.
When Calhoun’s successor, Kelly Ortberg, killed the TTBW, Boeing said research and development on the wing would continue. Of course, it would be a replacement for a 737. Why else continue this very specific R&D? Not inconsequentially, Airbus has long been designing a folding wing “Wing of Tomorrow” for the A320 replacement.
Furthermore, the underlying research into the TTBW’s fuselage and systems may be applied to a new airplane, just as elements of the Sonic Cruiser made their way into the 787 in the early 2000s.
Trump tariffs beginning to hurt US aerospace companies; EU competitors to benefit
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By Scott Hamilton and Karl Sinclair
Sept. 1, 2025, © Leeham News: New policies by President Donald Trump in the first six months of his second administration in trade, with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and the European Union (EU) are causing a what may become a significant shift in defense spending that will benefit European companies.
The added business could strengthen those that also participate in commercial aerospace, to the detriment of US companies, notably Airbus.
US companies that for decades were the major suppliers to allies are already beginning to see European countries redirect spending to EU firms. Following Trump’s imposition of high tariffs on certain EU countries and others on Aug. 1, US defense companies have been hurt. India canceled deliveries of Boeing 737-based P-8A Poseidons.
Figure 1. Boeing P-8, based on the commercial 737 NG. India suspended delivery of the P8 due to the Trump tariffs. Credit: Boeing. Airbus now proposes a rival airplane based on the A321.
Airbus, Rolls-Royce, MTU, and others expect to benefit from these changes. And, as these companies see more defense work coming their way, then—at least in theory—their commercial business will benefit from stronger balance sheets, profits, cash flow, and perhaps the corporations’ technology.
In an interview at the Paris Air Show in June, the consulting firm Accenture told LNA that it is beginning to see key trends and increases in the defense sector.
Figure 2. Spain and Switzerland canceled orders for the Lockheed F-35. Credit: Lockheed. Airbus stands to benefit, among other EU-based defense contractors.
“Obviously, things are changing in terms of the dynamics,” said Jeff Wheless, Growth & Strategy Research Leader at Accenture. “I think certainly from a NATO perspective, I think folks are increasing their spending.”
Mark Rutte, the NATO secretary general, said that Trump’s pressure on NATO countries to increase defense spending to 5% of their budgets paid off. For decades, NATO countries were committed to a 2% spending level, but often failed to meet this commitment.
“Europe is spending by far less money on defense acquisitions than the US,” said Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury in response to an LNA question at the Paris Air Show. “It’s a ratio of one to four or one to five. On top of that, Europe is procuring a lot from the US. I think the message is loud and clear from the U.S. that Europe should take better care of its own security.”
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 4
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 28, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyze Airbus’s A330neo, how the different variants were developed, their sales, and their performance before and after the neo upgrade.
After examining the history of the A330-200 and its evolution into a neo version, the A330-800, we now assess its performance. We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to compare the performance of the A330-800 to Boeing’s smallest Dreamliner, the 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-800, the very long-range A330. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-800 is an aircraft for especially demanding routes. It’s the only 8,000nm airliner in the 250-seat class.
- Our 787-8 comparison shows where the A330-800 has its advantage, on the world’s longest routes.
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 3
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 21, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyzed Airbus’s A330-300 and -900 over the last weeks, the mid-range Airbus that gradually developed into a credible long-range aircraft.
After examining the A330-300’s development into the A330-900, we now analyze the A330-200 and its neo version, the A330-800. Why was a shorter A330-200 developed and put into service four years after the A330-300, when in almost all other cases the next version is a stretch?
And why did this smaller A330 sell really well against the larger A330-300 when its neo version doesn’t? We utilize our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to analyze the A330-200 and -800. Then we compare the A330-800’s capabilities and efficiency with Boeing’s 787-8.
Figure 1. The A330-200, a model that sold almost half of all A330s until the A330neo was announced. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330-200 was one of the airline world’s few successful shrinks from a base version. Normally, base versions get complemented with higher capacity versions, and shrinks are duds.
- The A330-200 and now the A330-800 compete with Boeing’s 787-8. How do these compare?
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better. Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 14, 2025, © Leeham News: We analyze Airbus’s A330-900, the larger of the A330neos. Last week, we examined the product improvements that Airbus will roll out in the coming years, including the latest increase in Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) and the resulting increase in range.
The A330 entered the market as a mid-range aircraft. With the launch of the A330neo and subsequent improvements, it is today a long-range aircraft that covers several trans-Pacific trunk routes.
How does the improved A330-900 stack up against the efficiency of the Boeing 787-9? We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to find out.
Figure 1. The A330-900 in the colors of Delta Airlines, a major operator of the model. Source: Airbus.
Summary:
- The Airbus A330 is tested on a challenging route, LAX to Shanghai, versus Boeing’s perhaps best long-ranger, the 787-9.
- Where Airbus can’t match the efficiency and cargo capacity of a 20-year younger 787-9, it can compensate with lower capital costs.
Airbus’ A330neo gets better and better
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By Bjorn Fehrm
August 7, 2025, © Leeham News: Airbus’ A330neo, as the A330-900, entered the market in 2018. It’s a major improvement of the A330ceo that entered the market in 1994 as a 270-seat 3,900nm mid-range aircraft.
The present A330-900 has gradually improved its sales, prompting Airbus to increase the production rate from the planned four per month to five from 2029.
With a typical 290-seat cabin, Airbus advertises a 7,300nm range for the 251t Maximum TakeOff Weight (MTOW) version, quite a development from the original 212t A330-300. And now this is going to improve further from 2028, with a rise in the MTOW from 251t to 253t, together with other improvements.
Does this make the A330-900 into a trans-Ocean aircraft, and how does the improved version stack up against the Boeing 787-9? We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to find out.
Figure 1. The A330-900, a model that is selling better and better, 31 years after its introduction. Source: Airbus..
Summary:
- The Airbus A330 is like the proverbial cat; it has many lives. Just when the experts predicted it would slowly go away, it started selling again.
- In the version where it gets another MTOW hike, it can successfully cover transoceanic trunk routes.
Rolls-Royce shrugs off supply chain and tariffs woes as profits soar
By Tom Batchelor
Jul 31, 2025, © Leeham News: 
Rolls-Royce shrugged off lingering supply chain challenges and the uncertain tariff environment to post a strong first half performance in 2025.
CEO Tufan Erginbilgic hailed continued progress in his multi-year transformation of the British aerospace company, which saw underlying operating profit increase by 50% to £1.7bn ($2.25bn) with a margin of 19.1%.
This compares to an underlying operating profit of £1.1bn in the first half of 2024, and a margin of 14%.
The largest increase in underlying operating profit was in Civil Aerospace, driven by strong large engine aftermarket performance, contractual margin improvements and higher spare engine profit.
Underlying revenue reached £9.1bn in H1 2025, up 13%, with strong growth in the civil aerospace and power systems divisions.
Free cash flow in the period was £1.6bn, an improvement of £0.4bn compared with the prior period – up 37% yoy.
What’s the next new aircraft, Part 5
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
July 31, 2025, © Leeham News: We wrap up our five-part series today on What’s the Next New Airplane in the coming decades. We now look at Airplanes 9-13 in Figure 1 below.
Figure 1. The 13 airliners we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (9) COMAC 929, (10) Eco-version of New Light Twin, (11) CFM Open Fan single aisle, (12) the Boeing 787 re-engine, and (13) the Airbus A350 re-engine.
What’s the next new aircraft? Part 3
By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
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July 24, 2025, © Leeham News: In Part 3 of our five-part series on examining the potential next generation of aircraft in the coming decades, we take a closer look at Aircraft projects 1 to 4 in our Figure 1.
Figure 1. The 13 airliner ideas we look at in the series. Source: Leeham Co.
These are the (1) A220-500, (2) Boeing’s Transonic Truss Brace Wing (TTBW), (3) Boom’s Overture Super Sonic Transport (SST), and (4) the Blended Wing Body (BWB) aircraft suggested by leading proponent Jet Zero.