Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Airbus’ Design and Production transformation
June 30, 2021 © Leeham News: Yesterday’s 10 Minutes About discussed Boeing’s drive toward a dramatic new way to design and produce new airplanes. Today’s 10 Minutes About looks at how Airbus is approaching the same challenge.
United orders 200 Boeing 737 MAXes, 70 Airbus A321neos
By the Leeham News Team
June 29, 2021, © Leeham News: United Airlines today announced its order for 200 Boeing 737 MAXes and 70 Airbus A321neos.
The size and split of the order were first reported by Airfinance Journal.
Source: United Airlines
The deal is the carrier’s largest, as well as the industry’s largest “in a decade.”* The order is for 50 737 MAX 8s, 150 737 MAX 10s and 70 A321neos. “United will replace older, smaller mainline jets and at least 200 single-class regional jets with larger aircraft,” the airline said.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the Boeing Design and Production Moonshot
June 29, 2021, © Leeham News: “Most often when a new airplane is developed by either side, it is usually developed around a propulsion package that offers 15% to 20% improvement with respect to efficiency versus the one it’s displacing. That’s the way it’s happened over a long period of time,” Boeing CEO David Calhoun said on the most recent earnings call.
“I don’t believe the next generation of an engine can deliver that kind of performance. Therefore, whatever cost-efficiency ultimately and whatever performance advantages are derived from the next airplane in my view are going to come from the way it’s engineered and the way it’s manufactured. All [will be] with a focus on a lower cost per seat when we get it to the marketplace. And, yes, [it will have] a more sustainable package with respect to the environment.”
Just how practical is this approach? Today’s 10 Minutes About discusses Boeing’s moonshot in design and production for its next airplane, whatever it is.
China distorts progress in Boeing 737 MAX return to service
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
June 28, 2021, © Leeham News: There are now 265 Boeing 737 MAXes in airline service, according to data reviewed by LNA.
There are 263 MAXes in storage that appear to be previously delivered airplanes. This number is artificially inflated by the 95 MAXes that are grounded in China. China’s regulator hasn’t recertified the MAX, a move widely considered political due to the long-running trade war between the US and China initiated by the Trump Administration.
When the MAX was grounded in March 2019, there were 387 in service. The math indicates 147 MAXes were delivered from inventory or new production since the airplane was recertified by the Federal Aviation Administration in November 2020 and other regulators shortly afterward.
There were 400 MAXes in inventory at the end of the first quarter, down from 425 at the end of the year. Boeing resumed production in the single digits. Boeing does not reveal its rate, but it is believed to be about 10-14/mo going to 16/mo in the third quarter.
In contrast, there are 106 A320neos and 38 A321neos in storage as of last Friday.
Pontifications: The WTO Airbus/Boeing standstill and pursuing China
June 28, 2021, © Leeham News: The US and European Union agreed on June 15 to a standstill in the 17-year old trade dispute over illegal subsidies to Airbus and Boeing.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) found each violated international rules. By the time all was said and done, the US was authorized to levy tariffs on $7.5bn worth of European goods. The EU received authorization to levy tariffs on $4bn of US goods.
Tariffs on goods went beyond Airbus and Boeing products. But it was 15% tariffs on Airbus planes imported into the US and Boeing planes imported into the EU that were the highest-profile and most costly.
Despite initial reports in some uninformed media that the long-running dispute was “resolved,” in fact, only a standstill was agreed. The US and EU now have five years to negotiate a permanent settlement to Airbus’ “reimbursable launch aid” and Boeing’s benefits from tax breaks and NASA.
The two sides also agreed to put China’s commercial aerospace industry in the crosshairs.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 9. Size of the airliner.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
June 25, 2021, ©. Leeham News: We are closing in on our aircraft project, where we will go through an aircraft development from A to Z and look at how certification rules govern our work.
Before we decide what aircraft to develop, let’s look at how the certification rules break the market into segments based on cabin seating.
Figure 1. An example of a 50 seat airliner, the ATR 42. Source: Wikipedia.
Europe’s airline recovery: a tale of two continents
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
June 24, 2021, © Leeham News: The recovery in passenger air travel from COVID-19 has been wildly uneven. A dramatic recovery in passenger volume – although not yield – in many domestic markets has been offset by a continuing sharp slump in international traffic.
The latter has proven particularly crippling to European airlines, most of which have miniscule domestic markets. Intra-EU travel, although generally permitted by member countries, has been slow to recover as business travelers have failed to return in meaningful numbers.
Meanwhile, long-haul travel remains hampered, most recently by an ever-changing landscape of “red zone,” “orange zone,” and “green zone” labels, plus other restrictions placed on arriving travelers.
The bright spot is strong leisure travel demand, which is propelling the continent’s low-cost carriers much closer to recovery than their legacy counterparts. This LCC-versus-legacy split brings into sharp relief the state of European airline traffic.
Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control
Summary
- Vaccine rollout ahead of many developed markets; certificate program launching next week.
- Legacy carrier recovery is dragging out, weighed down by business and long-haul travel woes.
- LCCs performing relatively well, with some on track to fully recover next year.
- Train service unlikely to displace airline demand.
HOTR: USAF prepares for new tanker competition, pitting Lockheed Martin/Airbus and Boeing against each other
By the Leeham News Team
June 22, 2021, © Leeham News: The US Air Force appears to be preparing a new round of competition for the next phase of its aerial refueling tanker recapitalization.
The first, KC-X, took more than 10 years to award a contract that didn’t get overturned. Boeing initially was awarded a lease deal in 2001 that was canceled in the wake of a scandal that sent two Boeing officers to jail and led to the resignation of CEO Phil Condit.
Round two pitted Boeing against Northrop Grumman and EADS, which was the name of the parent of Airbus’ commercial unit. Northrop won, but this award was overturned when USAF improprieties were revealed in the debriefing.
Round three pitted Boeing against EADS alone after Northrop bowed out. Boeing won this contract with a price 10% below EADS, which didn’t contest the decision. Boeing since has written off about $5bn on the KC-46A tanker, which still doesn’t work as required and which was delivered nearly two years late.
Related stories:
The Ultrafan Project
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce launched the Ultrafan in 2014, a project to develop next-generation geared turbofan engines. The engine OEM has been working on that project ever since.
The Ultrafan demonstrator started the final assembly this year at the OEM’s Derby facility, with a plan to start and complete ground testing in 2022. Rolls-Royce will await a new OEM program launch to finalize the development to a production engine after 2022.
While using a power gearbox has gathered most of the attention, the Ultrafan uses other new technologies to enable a leap in fuel efficiency. LNA analyzes the technologies used and what lies ahead for the program.
Summary
- An evolving rationale for the Ultrafan business case;
- Much more than the addition of a power gearbox;
- A break with the Trent design
- A significant infrastructure uplift;
- Awaiting the next OEM move.
Pontifications: MHIRJ prepares for narrowbody aftermarket business
By Scott Hamilton
June 21, 2021, © Leeham News: MHIRJ Aviation Group said last week its 100,000 sf expansion of MRO facilities is sized to accommodate narrowbody aircraft.
MHIRJ is the former Bombardier CRJ global product support system purchased last year by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries.
The expansion, valued at $20m, was first disclosed by LNA in its May 31-June 1 one-year anniversary updates.
Related stories:
- Mitsubishi grows ex-Bombardier business: One Year later, Part 1
- MHIRJ expanding floor space: One Year later, Part 2
Ismail Mokabel, Senior Vice President, Head of Aftermarket, told LNA then that MHIRJ would be ready to diversify its aftermarket work beyond the CRJ regional jet after 2023. In a groundbreaking ceremony of the hangar expansion at its Bridgeport (WV) facility June 16, Mokabel disclosed that hangars will be big enough for narrowbody jets.