Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Services are driving revenues and profits in difficult times, Part I May 15, 2025
- The BWB has a long way to go before flying passengers, freight May 12, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 21. May 9, 2025
- Does an A220-500 need a new wing and engines? Part 2. May 8, 2025
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
A321 accounts for 50%+ of future deliveries; few production gaps
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Introduction
Sept. 12, 2019, © Leeham News: More than half the Airbus A320 family scheduled for delivery over the next four years will be the A321neo, according to an analysis performed by LNA.
Airbus is sold out through 2024 the current production rate of 60/mo or 720 per year.
The production rate increases to 63/mo next year, although LNA doesn’t have a precise time when this occurs.
A variable is also whether a full 12 months of production is calculated, or only 11 ½ months to allow for the summer vacation shutdown.
Either way, the production gaps appear manageable through 2024.
Summary
- Previous Airbus forecasts A321 would account for half of production were viewed skeptically.
- A321 long-term future depends on Boeing’s decision over the New Midmarket Airplane.
The struggling smaller European low cost carriers, Part 2.
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By Vincent Valery
Sep. 9, 2019, © Leeham News: In last week’s article, we discussed the context that led to the creation of numerous European low cost and leisure carriers. We also outlined the main reasons for their recent struggles.
Today we will look at the current situation for smaller carriers in various European countries. We will start with Germany.
Pontifications: Next few weeks critical to aerospace industry
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 9, 2019, © Leeham News: Reports increased last week that Europe’s EASA safety regulator may go its own way in recertifying the Boeing 737 MAX.
The head of IATA, the international trade group, and CEOs of several airlines and one lessor expressed fear and concern EASA won’t act with the Federal Aviation Administration to lift grounding orders of the MAX.
At the Regional Airline Assn. annual conference last week, buzz among journalists focused on one unverified report, based on EASA’s doubts reported during the week yet to hit the media, could significantly extend the grounding—measured in months, not weeks.
I know efforts are being made to verify the information.
If true, the effects would be devastating.
de Havilland Canada vows to revitalize Q400
Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham News: Nashville—The new de Havilland Canada (DHC) vowed yesterday to revitalize the former Bombardier Dash 8-400 (Q400), the program DHC acquired effective June 1.
Bombardier is selling off and exiting the commercial aviation sector after a series of 
management miscalculations, cost overruns and thee new airplane programs in commercial and business aviation nearly bankrupted the company.
The Q400 was the first complete airplane program to go. The CRJ program sale is next. A majority interest in the C Series jetliner occurred in 2018.
DHC is a subsidiary of Canada’s Longview Aviation. Another subsidiary, Viking Air, acquired all previous Bombardier-de Havilland programs from the Dash 1 through Dash 7 and CL-Series aerial fire-fighting water bombers.
E195-E2 will lead E-Jet sales, predicts N. American sales exec
Sept. 6, 2019, © Leeham Co., Nashville– Embraer is seeing interest from North American airlines in the E195-E2 despite a requirement that this would have to be operated by US mainline pilots or carriers without restrictions under some labor contract Scope Clauses, a top marketing official said yesterday.
Charlie Hills, VP of Sales and Marketing and based at the company’s US headquarters in Ft. Lauderdale, declined to name names of these airlines expressing interest in the E195-E2.
The remarks were made at the annual Regional Airlines Assoc. conference in Nashville.
But it is known that low-cost carriers Spirit Air, Frontier Airlines and even Southwest Airlines have looked at the airplane. None of these has a Scope Clause in labor contracts.
Legacy carrier United Airlines also has reviewed the airplane, but its level of interest is hard to gauge. It’s restricted by Scope by size, weight, seat count and the number of airplanes it can fly through its regional partners, so the E2 would have to fly mainline. Pilot wages would be a make-or-break issue.
The first E195-E2 will be delivered Sept. 12 to Brazil’s Azul Airlines.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 7.
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 6, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the flight control laws which are implemented with classical flight controls compared with the Embraer E-Jet and Airbus A320 FBW systems last week.
Now we describe alternative FBW approaches, analyzing Boeing’s 777/787 system and Airbus’ A220 system.
Figure 1. Boeing’s 777 and 787 FBW system architecture. Source: Boeing.
Mitsubishi lands MOU for up to 100 SpaceJets from USA’s Mesa Air
Sept. 5, 2019, © Leeham News: Nashville—Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) won a large commitment for up to 100 of its new M100 SpaceJet from US regional carrier Mesa Airlines.
The Memorandum of Understanding was announced today at the Regional Airline Assn. annual US conference. The MOU is for 50 firm orders and purchase rights for 50 more. Mesa is a new MITAC customer. Deliveries begin in 2024. Entry into service is planned for 2023.
The M100 is compliant with the US pilot contract Scope Clauses, which (among other things) limit the weight of the airplane and seating configuration.
A Letter of Intent for 15 M100s was announced at the Paris Air Show. This customer has yet to be identified.
Read more
Opportunity and challenges of a 787-10ER, Part 3.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 5, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we examined how a longer-range model of Boeing’s 787-10 would look like. We designed a 787-10ER version (ER for Extended Range) by increasing the Maximum TakeOff Weight of the aircraft. We also did some other adjustments to accommodate the increased weight.
We now compare the resulting aircraft with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A350-900. How would a 787-10ER stack up against an A350-900?
Summary:
- A 787-10ER is a narrower aircraft with a smaller wing than an A350-900. This affects passenger comfort but it also gives a lighter aircraft with less wetted area.
- The later generation engines on the A350-900 closes the difference in operating costs depending on how the aircraft is operated.
Airbus holds the line on A350 production rate
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Introduction
Sept. 4, 2019, © Leeham News: Airbus’ decision a few months ago to keep the A350 production rate at 10/mo appears to be a wise one, considering that there is a small production gap in 2022 but increasingly large ones from 2023.
Boeing boosted rates this year of the 787, which competes with the A350-900 but not the -1000, to 14/mo. Boeing is sold out at this rate in 2020 and 2021, but has a big gap in 2022 and larger gaps thereafter.
Both companies bank on a splurge of orders early next decade to fill the production gaps. Each says there will be a retirement surge beginning in about 2022.
Airbus offers the A330neo and A350. Boeing pitches the 787 and 777X—with a combined production capacity of 35/mo or 389/yr at current rates.
Summary
- Skyline quality is generally good, but weak spots and one blue-chip order bear watching.
- Some significant production gaps emerge in 2023.
- A330-900 competes with A350-900 for orders.
Pontifications: Catching up on Odds and Ends-Alaska’s Airbus fleet, first E195-E2 delivery, Boeing’s MAX rebranding question
- Take our Boeing 737 MAX rebranding poll at the end of this post.
Sept. 2, 2019, © Leeham News: It’s time to catch up on Odds and Ends.
Alaska Airlines
In its second quarter earnings call and 10Q Securities and Exchange Filing, Alaska Airlines said it was returning one Airbus A319 and two A320s off lease this year and next.
By Scott Hamilton
These airplanes are from its Virgin America acquisition, which introduced the Airbus family into the all-Boeing Alaska mainline operations.
Alaska officials have said several times they are evaluating whether to phase out all Airbuses and return to an all-Boeing fleet, or keep the Airbuses and operate a mixed fleet indefinitely.
I wondered if this was the start of the phase out.
“We are planning to return 1 A319 this year and 2 A320s next year at normal lease expiration,” Brandon Pederson, EVP and CFO of the company, wrote LNA. “This is not part of a broader fleet decision, nor a phase out of the smaller Airbus aircraft. Leases on the remaining 50 A319/A320 aircraft in the fleet have varying maturities through 2025.”