Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing bullish on 20-year forecast, despite short-term headwinds June 14, 2025
- Embraer’s 20-year market forecast under 150 seats: fewer turboprops, jets about the same June 14, 2025
- Airbus Canada CEO: Airbus is here to stay in Canada June 14, 2025
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 26. June 13, 2025
Looking at MAX beyond the grounding
June 17, 2019, © Leeham News, Paris: As the international aerospace community and media gathers here this week for the Paris Air Show, the Boeing
737 MAX is the elephant in the room.
The focus obviously is on when the MAX will return to service worldwide.
A few people are already looking beyond this, to how quickly Boeing will ramp production back up and how quickly the backlog of completed airplanes will be delivered to airlines and lessors.
The grounding appears that it will go on much longer than expected.
Pontifications: The elephant in the room
By Scott Hamilton
June 17, 2019, © Leeham News: The Paris Air Show opens today and the elephant in the room is the Boeing 737 MAX.
There is no telling when the airplane will get FAA approval to return to service. According to some news reports, Boeing will hasn’t turned over the MCAS revisions to the FAA for review, testing and approval.
The acting administrator of the FAA said he expects the MAX to be back in the air by the end of the year. Some leapt to the conclusion this means December—and it may, but let’s remember September, October and November are before the “end of the year,” too.
There’s no telling how other global regulators will act, and when, to conduct their own review and approvals. Airlines would like a global action. It’s tough to tell customers one country sees the airplane as safe but others don’t.
- Leeham News will be at the Paris Air Show this week, with coverage by Scott Hamilton, Bjorn Fehrm and Judson Rollins. All coverage will be open to all readers.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why hybrid cars work and hybrid airliners have challenges
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 14, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner we discussed why aircraft with batteries as an energy source will be short ranged for decades to come. The battery energy density is too low and it won’t change appreciably over time.
Now we look at the challenges hybrid transport aircraft face when competing with today’s turbofan airliners.
The Zunum Hybrid electric airliner. Source; Zunum.
How Mitsubishi Aircraft morphed the MRJ70 into the M100 SpaceJet
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 13, 2019, © Leeham News.: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) has done more than a rebranding and new livery in creating the SpaceJet out of the MRJ70.
It’s changing the design, its materials and several parts of the interior to accommodate more passengers than the MRJ70.
- Related story: How the SpaceJet came to be.
Here is a technical analysis of the aircraft, based on information released today and our own Aircraft Performance Model.
We describe the changes MITAC made to the MRJ70 to end up with the M100 SpaceJet and what these mean for passengers and operators.
Figure 1. The Mitsubishi M100 SpaceJet replacing the MRJ70. Source: Mitsubishi.
Evolving the MRJ into the SpaceJet
June 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp. (MITAC)’s redesign of the MRJ70 and launch of the M100 SpaceJet in its place reflects a changing market environment when the MRJ program was launched more than a decade ago.
Then, MITAC—and Embraer—thought the restrictive US Scope Clause with the pilots’ unions of US major carriers would be relaxed by now.
- Related story: A technical look at the new SpaceJet.
MITAC launched the MRJ90 90-seat aircraft, to be followed by the MRJ70, a 70-seat airplane. Embraer launched the E175-E2 re-engined model of the popular E175.
Mitsubishi’s SpaceJet is the new brand for the revised MRI70 design, which has more passengers, a different wing and slightly longer fuselage than the original. Entry into service is planned for 2023. Source: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp.
Neither complied with Scope as then defined, specifically the maximum takeoff weight of 86,000 lbs. Each exceeded this limit by about a ton.
(There are restrictions as to the number of seats and number of airplanes that can be operated by regional airline partners, too, but it’s the weight limit that’s the key issue here.)
How useful is an Airbus A321XLR? Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
June 13, 2019, © Leeham News: Last week we looked at the route structures an Airbus A321XLR could support compared with the original A321LR. We could see the A321XLR is a more flexible long-range aircraft than the A321LR.
It covers trans-Atlantic routes from Mid-US to mid-Europe and it can for several route types replace larger aircraft, thus allowing increased frequency on existing routes or the start of new thinner routes than possible with widebody aircraft.
This all assumes the economics of the A321XLR and a widebody like the Airbus A330neo or Boeing 787 are comparable. We use our Aircraft Performance Model to find out.
Summary:
- Our comparison over a typical long-range route shows the operating costs of an A321XLR and an A330-800 or 787-8 are close.
- This creates flexibility for the airlines. The A321XLR can open new, thinner routes between secondary city pairs or increase the frequency on established long-haul routes.
- It can also serve routes during off-peak hours or during the slower winter period. All that’s needed whether the route is within the range capability of the A321XLR.
Mitsubishi moves would make a lot of sense
By Bryan Corliss
Analysis
June 11, 2019, © Leeham News: © — A deal by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries to acquire the CRJ program from Bombardier would make abundant sense for Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp – taking a struggling competitor off the board, acquiring hard-to-find human capital assets, and taking over an established North American American supplier network and a global product support system.
And recent unconfirmed reports that MITAC also is considering a North American final assembly site would make a lot of sense for a company that’s looking to cut production costs – and get closer to some likely key customers.
Yet while everyone in the industry is talking about the potential links between MITAC and the Montreal-based CRJ, nobody’s saying much about the company’s future in Moses Lake (WA). But overlooking Mitsubishi’s growth over the past two years there would be a mistake, because the company certainly is acting like it intends to plant roots there in the Eastern Washington farm country.
- A North American assembly site would bring significant savings;
- Mitsubishi and Bombardier already have close ties; and
- Signs point to MITAC settling in at Moses Lake for the long haul.
Embraer in holding pattern awaiting JV approvals
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Introduction
June 10, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer is in a holding pattern of sorts.
It’s awaiting international regulatory anti-trust approval for the joint venture with The Boeing Co.
It can’t coordinate with Boeing about synergies until these approvals come.
Its leadership is identifying areas that, from its perspective, can lead to synergies.
Some key campaigns for the E-Jet E2 appear to be on hold while customers wait for Boeing and Embraer to join in order to see how pricing may be reset, competition with the Airbus A220 shapes up, what synergies between the E2 and Boeing’s 7-Series product lines might emerge and how Embraer’s Services unit integrates with Boeing Global Services.
Pontifications: Melancholy about Embraer’s 50th year
By Scott Hamilton
June 10, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer is 50 years old Aug. 19.
This must be the classic case of mixed feelings. By the end of the year, if regulators approve, the marquis business unit, Commercial Aviation, will be spun off and the Embraer name for it disappears into Boeing Brasil-Commercial (BB-C).
Boeing will own 80% of the new joint venture and Embraer retains 20%. Boeing has the governance and chairman. Embraer’s CEO of Commercial Aviation becomes president and CEO of BB-C, but the direction now will clearly be set by Boeing.
Sixty percent of Embraer’s services unit goes into BB-C.
Embraer and Boeing also created a second JV, for the KC-390 program. Embraer retains 51% and Boeing gets 49%.
Embraer retains full control over the remaining defense and business jet units.
Officials put a “best face” on the pending changes at Embraer’s pre-Paris Air Show briefings May 27-29, but they really could not mask the uncertainties and, to some degree, resignation about the future.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why Electric Cars work and Airliners don’t
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 7, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner I wrote: “The reason electric cars work and airliners don’t is the Sky lacks Stoplights“.
The discussion was part of my previous series on Electric aircraft, but it was in the comment section. Here is a more exhaustive run through of the main reasons.
Figure 1. The Tesla electric car is a functioning replacement for a combustion engine car. Source: Tesla.