Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Little known, most unknown in Air India 171 crash June 13, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 26. June 13, 2025
- Airbus forecasts that almost three times more aircraft needs to be produced by year 2044 June 12, 2025
- Paris Air Show preview: Don’t look for big news June 11, 2025
- P&W: the troubled GTF will be the best engine for the next single-aisle airplane June 11, 2025
Boeing and Airbus make important Sustainability announcements at Farnborough.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 18, 2022, © Leeham News at Farnborough Air Show: Boeing started the Sustainability announcements by the big two by summarizing its Sustainability efforts to date and previewing Cascade, a web tool where we all can check the lifecycle effects of actions to support Net Zero at 2050. The tool supports all technologies and any real or concept aircraft of your making. Boeing also made announcements about supporting the Global scaling of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) together with Alder Fuels.
Airbus closed the day by announcing it had pre-ordered 400,000 tonnes of CO2 Direct Air Capture performed by 1PointFive. The pre-order is in cooperation with Air Canada, Air France-KLM, easyJet, IAG, LATAM, Lufthansa, and Virgin Atlantic. One million tonnes of CO2 will be captured at a new Texas site by 2024 and then permanently stored in old oil wells.
Both companies stressed that Sustainability is, like Safety, not a competition item; instead, we must all contribute, and there is no single solution or entity that will get us to net zero by 2050.
Figure 1. Boeing’s VP of Sustainability Brian Yutko shows Cascade. Source: Leeham Co.
Assessing future twin-aisle production rates
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
July 18, 2022, © Leeham News: There were 98 twin-aisle passenger aircraft deliveries in 2021, the lowest number since 1987 (90). The 2021 tally was down 73% compared to the peak of 362 deliveries in 2015.
Credit: Boeing
The minimal number of Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries in 2021 explains why 2021 twin-aisle passenger deliveries fell so low. However, the twin-aisle passenger market slowed down before the Covid-19 pandemic. The travel restrictions imposed during the pandemic brought long-haul traffic to levels last seen in the 1950s at the start of the jet age.
With international travel restrictions progressively lifting, long-haul traffic is gradually recovering. However, the draconian travel restrictions imposed by China and the closure of the Russian airspace to numerous airlines have slowed down the return of demand.
Airbus and Boeing reduced passenger twin-aisle production rates to a minimal: five per month on the A350 and 787 (before the production issues) and two per month on the A330neo. Boeing stopped producing 777-300ERs, with one unit pending delivery to China Southern Airlines. The extensive 777X production delays led Boeing to halt its production.
In its 2021 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), Boeing envisioned a market for 7,670 passenger twin-aisle deliveries over the 2021-2040 period.
LNA analyses the size of the passenger twin-aisle market, both for replacement and growth. The goal is to assess the range of possible twin-aisle production rates over the next two decades.
Summary
- Outlining the analysis hypothesis;
- Assessing production rates for replacements;
- An outsized impact of growth assumptions;
- Geopolitical and environmental considerations;
- A segment with more uncertainty.
P&W, Collins Aerospace launch hybrid-electric demonstrator
By Scott Hamilton
July 18, 2022 (BST), © Leeham News: Pratt & Whitney and sister company Collins Aerospace announced the launch of a hybrid-electric technology demonstrator, it was announced today at the Farnborough Air Show. This program is for future advanced air mobility vehicles.
Collins and Pratt & Whitney Canada, the turboprop engine unit, also announced the completion of the preliminary design of a 1MW motor for the demonstrator. A De Havilland Canada Dash 8-100 will be the platform for the commercial hybrid-electric application.
Future of 737-10 MAX clouded by Calhoun: What it means
By Scott Hamilton
CEO David Calhoun said Boeing might cancel the 737-10 MAX program if the FAA doesn’t certify it by year-end or Congress doesn’t grant an extension of a mandated deadline. Photo Credit: Leeham News.
July 17, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing CEO David Calhoun cast doubt over the future of the 737-10 MAX in a July 7 interview with Aviation Week magazine.
With questions about whether the Federal Aviation Administration will certify the MAX 10 by year-end, doubts about the program’s future had been whispered in the market for weeks. A Congressional mandate adopted in the wake of the MAX crisis established the Dec. 31 deadline for the MAX 10. Boeing already has talked with customers about swapping MAX 10 orders for the 737-9 MAX, according to market sources.
The 737-7 MAX also remains uncertified even though flight tests have been completed.
Boeing sees long-term demand bouncing back after pandemic
July 16, 2022, © Leeham News: After years of market turmoil, Boeing and Airbus see brighter skies–and bigger order backlogs–ahead. Both companies maintained confidence that demand for aircraft would bounce back as the COVID-19 pandemic ebbed. Passenger traffic and aircraft utilization seem to back up their optimism. Traffic is bouncing back despite short-term economic concerns, a pandemic that is still smoldering and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Boeing projects demand for 39,050 new commercial aircraft, excluding regional jets, over the next two decades, according to its Current Market Outlook, which it released Saturday. The company’s forecast is in line with Airbus’ forecast of demand for 39,500 aircraft. Single-aisle aircraft make up three-quarters of demand in both companies’ outlooks. Boeing is slightly more bullish on passenger widebody demand.
Sustainability is an increasingly important factor in Boeing’s market outlook. It is also a relatively new variable, and how much it will shape market demand and in what ways is not very clear.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 28. Vectored thrust VTOLs.
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 15, 2022, ©. Leeham News: We started the analysis of the market’s most prominent VTOLs with multicopters last week. Now we continue with vectored thrust VTOLs.
The most known exponent for vectored thrust VTOLs is Joby Aviation’s Joby S4 VTOL, Figure 1.
Figure 1. Joby S4. Source: Joby Aviation.
Dual or Single Aisle for Long-haul?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 14, 2022, © Leeham News: What is the most economical way to fly long-haul up to the range of the Airbus A321XLR? The single-aisle alternative or stay with the trusted widebody?
The intuition says the single-aisle must be lower cost and, therefore, return better margins, given the same ticket prices for equal comfort seats. But is this true? We use the Leeham airliner performance and economic model to find out.
Summary
- When comparing single-aisle and widebodies, it’s important to equalize the cabin standards.
- There are also differences in cruise speeds and, therefore, flight times.
Sustainability progress “depends on where you snap the line”
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By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2022, © Leeham News: When it comes to sustainable aviation, what’s real and what’s greenwashing, “it depends on where you snap the line,” says a managing director at the consultancy Accenture.
John Schmidt heads up Accenture’s Aerospace and Defense Global Industry consultancy. Schmidt briefed LNA ahead of the Farnborough Air Show, which begins next week.
The background
John Schmidt
At the Annual General Meeting of the International Air Transport Association (IATA) in Boston last October, IATA adopted a 2050 timeline goal for meeting targets to reduce aviation emissions. Tim Clark, the president and COO of Emirates Airline was on the panel with Stan Deal and Guillaume Faury, the CEOs of Boeing Commercial Airplanes and Airbus Group. The panel outlined goals for using Sustainable Aviation Fuel and reducing CO2 emissions, among other things. Clark, however, warned, “Don’t make promises you can’t keep.”
In a previous interview with LNA, Clark estimated the commercial aviation industry will need trillions of dollars to meet the 2050 goal. It’s money the industry doesn’t have. This begs the question: is there a certain amount of greenwashing going on?
Pontifications: China still needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China
By Scott Hamilton
July 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The July 1 announcement by Airbus that it won orders for 292 airplanes from China, for the Big Three carriers, was treated as a shocker by some.
Boeing, which has been frozen out of the Chinese market since 2017, blamed geopolitical issues for its dry spell. To be blunter, blame it on former President Donald Trump, who began a trade war with China that inexplicably continues well into the first term of the Biden Administration.
Trump’s shoot-from-the-lip foreign policy routinely failed to consider geopolitical issues. Joe Biden is more thoughtful, but 18 months into his presidency has done little to repair relations with China. To be sure, there must be a balance when dealing with China and trade.
The country routinely engages in cyber-based industrial espionage, and this must be stopped. Honoring intellectual property rights is mere rhetoric by Beijing. But about a third of orders for Airbus and Boeing historically come from China. Boeing has about 140 737 MAXes in long-term storage destined for China. Despite global air traffic recovery, China’s zero-tolerance policy toward COVID continues to suppress domestic demand, another factor in Boeing’s storage problem.
But geopolitics is a real issue. Here’s what Boeing said following the Airbus order:
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 27. Multicopters.
July 8, 2022, ©. Leeham News: We will start the analysis of the market’s most prominent VTOL variants by looking at the simplest version, multicopters.
When we analyze the multicopters, we can go through some fundamentals of how VTOL operates and the technology used.
Figure 1. The VoloCity multicopter of the Volocopter company. Source: Volocopter.