Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing appears finally on track to resume 787 deliveries
April 25, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing appears on a path to resume deliveries of the 787 in the second half of this year.
By Scott Hamilton
Filings by American and United airlines with the US Securities and Exchange Commission show each carrier expects 787s later this year. And, according to a Reuters report, Boeing privately told the airlines and the supply chain that deliveries will resume in the second half.
Boeing declined comment.
A United 8-K filings (an unscheduled filing) indicate two deliveries in the third quarter and another four in the fourth quester. These are 787-10s. American indicates seven Dreamliner deliveries by year-end in its 10Q filing. These are 787-8s.
At the start of this year, American said it expected deliveries to resume in April. Boeing, on its 4Q2021 earnings call, did not confirm this but it didn’t dispute it, either. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversees when Boeing can resume deliveries.
Deliveries were suspended in October 2020 when a gap the size of a piece of paper (ie, the thickness of 0.004 inches*) was found in new production airplanes. While not a safety of flight issue, the gap was a non-conforming production requirement. The FAA asked Boeing to halt deliveries while the scope of the problem was determined, and a fix identified. Coming during the grounding of the 737 MAX, coupled with increased scrutiny of Boeing and the FAA, scoping the breadth of the gap problem and determining a fix has taken an agonizingly long time. During this period, the FAA rescinded Boeing’s authority to certify each 787 for delivery, assuming this responsibility instead.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 16. Thrust generation
April 22, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we examined propulsion system alternatives and their principal advantages and disadvantages. Now we go deeper into these alternatives.
All propulsion systems for aircraft use a propulsion device like a propeller or a fan to generate forward thrust. We use this article to understand how these work and their characteristics before we go into how we create the shaft power to drive them.
Figure 1. The propulsive efficiency as a function of speed for different thrust generating concepts. Source: Aircraft propellers, is there a future? MPDI document.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
April 21, 2022, © Leeham News: In the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the United Kingdom decided to ban Aeroflot and other Russian airlines from its airspace.
Credit: Finnair
A tit-for-tat escalation led to what would have been unthinkable only weeks prior: Western European and North American commercial airlines can’t fly through Russian airspace. Flight restrictions are essentially back to those that existed for many carriers at the height of the Cold War.
The closure of Russian airspace to Western carriers will impact many routes, notably between Western Europe and East Asia. Flights are now longer, increasing fuel burn and reducing payload capabilities.
While passenger airlines have caught most of the attention, the impact is also severe for cargo airlines. As a result, LNA thought it relevant to start a series about the effects of Russian airspace closure on several standard commercial airline routes.
We will start by providing historical context and listing the impacted passenger airlines.
Summary
- A gradual opening of the Siberian corridor during the USSR;
- The proliferation of routes in the post-soviet era;
- Varying level of impact by airline and route.
Understanding ODAs
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By the Leeham News Team
April 19, 2022, © Leeham News: Following 737 MAX grounding, Boeing was found to have exerted undue influence on their ODA unit and its members.
ODA stands for Organization Designation Authorization. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) designates personnel employed by a company to be its official on-site representatives. The MAX crisis put a spotlight on the Boeing-FAA ODA relationship. Faults were found and the uninformed in many cases thought the existence of ODAs was a scandal. But it’s a system that’s been around for decades, and it’s not limited to Boeing.
Let’s look at exactly what that means as we try to understand the impact on certification schedules at Boeing.
Boeing’s Product Certification Timelines and Challenges
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By the Leeham News Team
April 18, 2022, © Leeham News: US Rep. Peter DeFazio, the chairman of the House Transportation Committee, is on record opposing a certification extension for the Boeing 737-10 Max. Under legislation previously passed by Congress, Boeing has until the end of this year to certify the MAX 10.
Boeing 737-10. Source: Boeing.
DeFazio is a Democrat from Oregon who is not seeking reelection this year. He was a fierce critic of Boeing during the House hearings of the MAX crisis. His opposition to extending the certification timeline for the MAX 10 is bad news for Boeing. It was the path of least resistance to completing the Max 10 certification without implementing a new Engine Indicating and Crew Alerting System (EICAS) system on the airplane. Requiring EICAS will greatly complicate the certification path and future crew training differences with the rest of the 737 Max models..
How did we get here?
In the wake of the two MCAS-related 737 losses, Congress passed new laws regarding Aviation Safety. The most sweeping of them was the Aircraft Certification, Safety, and Accountability Act. This is a broad stroke law addressing 37 different portions of the FAA’s review process. It changes a great many things inside Boeing as well as inside the Federal Aviation Administration.
Let’s look through these changes and see how the process changes will impact things.
Pontifications: Rolls-Royce and the Next Boeing Airplane
April 18, 2022, © Leeham News: The aviation industry is waiting to see what Boeing will do when it comes to a new airplane.
By Scott Hamilton
The Next Boeing Airplane (NBA), whatever form it takes, will largely be driven by what advances in engines are available. Boeing CEO David Calhoun downplays the engine element. He’s said repeatedly that the next engine will only have about a 10% lower fuel consumption than today’s powerplants. He didn’t today’s name engines, but the benchmarks are now the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan and CFM LEAP.
Calhoun places more emphasis on a moonshot in design and production advances to lower the cost of the airplane—with the theory the price paid by the customer will be lower as a result, providing a combined benefit of lower operating costs and lower capital costs.
PW agrees that by around 2030, the usual date (plus-or-minus a year or two) given for the NBA’s entry into service (EIS), it can get another 10% of improved fuel economy out of the GTF. CFM, on the other hand, is pressing ahead with what used to be called the Open Rotor concept. CFM now calls it an Open Fan. The company has a target EIS of 2035 and a fuel improvement of 20%. Emissions for the two engines would be reduced by roughly a corresponding amount vis-à-vis fuel burn.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 15. Hydrogen propulsion system choices.
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 15, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we examined different airliner types’ power requirements and the importance of their size classes in the market.
Now we look at what propulsion system alternatives are available when using hydrogen as the energy source and their principal advantages and disadvantages.
Figure 1. CO2 emission by airliner segments. Source: EU Hydrogen-powered aviation report.
An A330neo freighter, should it happen? Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
April 14, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we speculated that Airbus might decide to upgrade the present A330-200F freighter to a neo variant based on the longer -900 fuselage.
To understand how competitive it would be, we compare its economics to the 787, 767-300F, and A330-200F freighters.
Summary
- Airbus’s A330-900F would be a modest upgrade project, as all bits needed are in production today.
- The result would outcompete all present midrange freighters and give a 787 freighter a match in the market.
Airbus nears finding homes for Air Asia X, Aeroflot widebodies
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Now open to all readers
By Scott Hamilton
April 11, 2022, © Leeham News: Airbus removed nearly all A330-900s from its backlog to AirAsia X, finally acknowledging what the industry knew for years: this deal was toast, even before the pandemic burnt it.
There are also A350-900s for Aeroflot that now no longer can be delivered.
Aeroflot Airbus A350-900. Source: Airbus.
Despite the widebody marketing being in the dumps, likely for another couple of years, don’t fret about these lost orders. According to market intelligence, Airbus has perhaps three campaigns for the A330neo that may jell within the new few weeks or months.
And the Aeroflot A350s may have a home sooner than anyone would think. Furthermore, some may wind up going to a customer with orders for the Boeing 787 that are in limbo because of the 18-month suspension of deliveries.
Furthermore, Airbus is quietly working to consolidate its dominance in the single-aisle market as the COVID pandemic continues to wind down and Boeing has challenges ramping up its 737 production—and certification of the 737-10 MAX by year-end seems slipping. The ramifications of this slip could be profound.
Summary
- Airbus lining up customers to take Air Asia X canceled A330-900s.
- Aeroflot A350s may find home soon, with a customer awaiting 787 deliveries.
- Boeing’s 737 production rate plans were affected by the China Eastern crash.
- China Eastern crash cause appears trending toward pilot suicide.
Pontifications: Catching up—DHC extends Dash 8 life; 737-10, 777X, A321XLR certifications
Every once in a while, it’s necessary to catch up on this and that….
By Scott Hamilton
April 11, 2022, © Leeham News: The announcement drew little notice because the topic wasn’t sexy. De Havilland Canada last week said that Norway’s Wideroe Airlines became the first operator to sign up to extend the service life of its Dash 8-100s from 120,000 cycles to 160,000 cycles. The carrier previously contracted to extend the life of the Dash 8 from 80,000 cycles to 120,000 cycles.
“Combined, our two Extended Service Programs add another 30 to 40+ years to the operational life of Dash 8-100 aircraft – that’s double the original service life of the aircraft,” DHC’s Robert Mobilio, Vice President Engineering, said in a statement.
The move is significant because there are no replacement aircraft in the 30-seat category. The market for airplanes this size is very small, and any replacement aircraft would likely be beyond the financial reach of many regional carriers. Extending the life of these airplanes—for an astonishing 30-40 years—is the only viable alternative.
DHC is separately evaluating hybrid technology, with engine maker Pratt & Whitney Canada, to make the Dash 8 series more environmentally friendly. A Dash 8-100 will be used for the hybrid-electric demonstrator.