The Bombardier CSeries completed the high speed taxi tests this morning. This means the first flight should be just days away, weather depending—and the forecast is iffy.
Bombardier tells us they “need” a clear, dry, calm day. Plans are to fly early in the morning–whatever day it turns out to be–because winds are calmer then than later in the day at Mirabel Airport north of Montreal.
The Boeing 787 first flight was on a rainy day. This Boeing-made video shows the weather conditions, with a wet runway and gloomy skies.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yuvM8TQ4zZc&w=420&h=315]
The 787 first flight was cut short due to rain moving in around Boeing Field and by the time the 787 landed, rain was falling.
Bombardier needs better conditions. We’ve asked whether this is by company policy or due to Canadian regulations; we’ll update when we have an answer.
But excitement is building. BBD tells us that people have lined the runway watching the taxi tests and plane-spotting in anticipation for the first flight.
Posted on September 6, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
The thrice-delayed first flight of the Bombardier CSeries may come Sunday, reports Reuters.
We previously posted some thoughts on the pending first flight. We expanded on these thoughts in our e-mail newsletter Aug. 26. Below is the entire newsletter.
Posted on September 4, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Delta Air Lines announced an order today for 30 A321ceos and 10 A330-300 HGW. This is the first Airbus order from Delta in two decades; the only previous order was for nine A310-300s during the days of CEO Ron Allen. Allen ordered these aircraft shortly after acquiring A310-200s/300s when Delta bought part of the failing Pan Am.
But when the 1991 Gulf War happened and the US airline industry went into a tail-spin, Allen undertook a cost-cutting procedure that eliminated all A310s from the fleet, including the new orders–before all nine had even been delivered.
Delta subsequently was one of three US airlines to sign a 20-year exclusive supplier agreement with Boeing; American Airlines and Continental Airlines were the other two. But when, in 1997, Boeing and McDonnell Douglas proposed merging, the European Union demanded that the exclusive supplier agreements be voided. Boeing agreed not to enforce them. Still, Delta did not order Airbus until now.
But the current Delta management, led by Richard Anderson,* once ran Northwest Airlines. This management took over Delta upon its exit from bankruptcy following 9/11 turmoil that decimated the US airline industry. Anderson and his team ordered from both Airbus and Boeing while running Northwest, preferring to maintain a dual-source supply of airplanes. Anderson’s Delta previously ordered 100 Boeing 737-900ERs.
Delta is one of the few airlines that has yet to order the re-engined Airbus or Boeing single-aisle airplanes. The philosophy is that it wants to see the new technology in action before signing on. Northwest Airlines was the US launch customer for the Boeing 787, an order placed after Anderson’s team left NWA. Delta inherited this order when NWA was acquired, but Anderson’s team didn’t like what was happening with the 787-8 program and deferred the 787 order to at least 2020, according to the data base Ascend. Many think Delta may never take the 787, but this remains to be seen.
Delta came very close to ordering the Bombardier CSeries, but its caution against new technology and a worsening economy at the time killed the order for the time being.
Posted on September 4, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
It’s an unusually busy news day for a Friday. Bombardier received its clearance from Transport Canada to conduct the first flight of the CSeries. BBD has not announced a date, which will be contingent upon weather and the airplane, but word has leaked out that BBD has a VIP event of some kind on Sept. 17, a Tuesday. The Toronto Globe and Mail reported the date but BBD told the paper that date remains tentative and it is not necessarily the date the first flight will take place. Reuters reports the first flight should precede the 17th. The Financial Post reports that the CSeries will fly during the Sept. 17 event, which is to celebrate the launch for the flight testing program.
BBD will webcast the first flight here.
Here is BBD’s press release about receiving Transport Canada’s authorization.
The other big news today is the win by American Airlines and US Airways for a November 25 trial date over the US Department of Justice lawsuit seeking to block the merger. The lawsuit is also holding up American’s exit from bankruptcy. The federal judge overseeing the bankruptcy case set a hearing on Sept. 12 on motions to approve AA’s exit.
DOJ sought a March trial date, a delay which would have effectively killed the merger as much as the lawsuit itself might. DOJ opposed the early date.
Separately, Boeing is conducting ground tests in preparation for the first flight of the 787-9. No date has been set for the flight.
Posted on August 30, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
MAKS Air Show Summary: This account summarizes the orders placed at the Moscow Air Show, known as MAKS. It appears only Bombardier among Western OEMs made any commercial deals.
Looking at Airbus: Aspire Aviation takes a long look at Airbus.
A350 Launch Aid: Airbus and Germany are at odds over more than 600m Euros of a 1.1bn Euro loan for development of the A350 XWB. The sticking point: job allocation. Why Airbus needs or wants this government-sponsored launch aid remains a mystery to us. Get the governments out of its knickers and be a true commercial company.
Slow freighter sales: This report details slow freighter sales for Boeing and Airbus. This is reflected in the poor sales of the Boeing 747-8F and the Airbus A330-200F.
Posted on August 30, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Irkut, Sukhoi
747-8F, A330F, A350, Airbus, Aspire Aviation, Boeing, Bombardier, MAKS
Bombardier scored a huge deal at the Russian air show, MAKS, with a letter of intent for an order for up to 100 Q400 turbo-props.
The Q400 has been trailing rival ATR, which is half owned by Airbus parent EADS, for the ATR-72 turbo-prop, by a wide margin in recent sales. ATR recently obtained third-world, gravel runway certification for its airplane.
The BBD deal includes the potential of establishing a second Q400 assembly line in Russia. The BBD deal is for 50+50 and isn’t expected to be completed until next year.
Bombardier has been making a major effort in Russia, placing used CRJ regional jets there, previous orders for the Q400 and an order for 32 CSeries. It’s also signed an agreement to explore customer support services for the Irkut MC-21 150-212 seat mainline jet.
Other MAKS news:
Posted on August 28, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
It’s Actually is Rocket Science: It’s a clever headline from Bloomberg News, explaining why new airplane programs are delayed.
Focusing on smaller airplanes: Steven Udvar-Hazy, one of the craftiest executives in commercial aviation, is profiled in this LA Times story. He discusses his focus on smaller aircraft for his Air Lease Corp.
Boeing 787-9: Boeing rolled out the first 787-9 and is readying pre-flight tests.
Boeing photo
More analysis on DOJ vs AA-US: Here is Part 2 of Airchive’s analysis of the Department of Justice case seeking to block the American Airlines-US Airways merger.
Posted on August 26, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Lufthansa’s Pending Order: As we have written on previous occasions, Lufthansa Airlines has been preparing a large order for twin-aisle, twin-engine aircraft: 50 or more. We’d noted that the order was likely due in September.
Aviation Week has this update.
Mitsubishi MRJ v Embraer E-Jet E2: Flight Global reports that the Japanese OEM says the latest 15 month delay won’t hurt sales of the MRJ (to which one wag notes it’s not selling well anyway–there are only three customers), but what caught our eye is the Mitsubishi reference comparing the MRJ with the Embraer E-Jet E2. This is like the debate of new vs re-engine between Bombardier’s CSeries and the smallest Airbus and Boeing products.
MAXimizing space: Boeing shifted work around at its Renton (WA) factory as it prepares for production of the 737 MAX. The Seattle Times has a good wrap up.
Posted on August 23, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi
737 MAX, 777X, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, E-Jet E2, Lufthansa, Mitsubishi, MRJ
Upgrades for the B-52: The USAF and Boeing are upgrading the Boeing B-52 bomber to further extend the service life. The LA Times via the Seattle Times has this story. This is remarkable; the B-52 was designed in 1948 to be the USA’s aerial backbone against the Soviet Union in the Cold War. It bombed Iraq in the 1991 Gulf War and continues to out-perform the B-1B bomber, which was supposed to replace the old gal, nicknamed by some as BUFF.
More on MRJ Delay: Mitsubishi made it official: the MRJ 90 passenger regional jet will be delayed another year. There are several stories via Google News; this Reuters piece is typical. Aviation Week has a good timeline recap.
Here’s how pending new airplane programs now appear to line up for Entry into Service:
Original | Current | |
CS100 | Dec-13 | e4Q2014* |
MRJ | 4Q2013 | 2Q2017 |
ARJ21 | 2006 | Good Question |
C919 | 2016 | 2018–> |
A320neo | Oct-15 | Oct-15 |
737-8 | Jul-17 | Jul-17 |
777X | e12-2019** | |
EJet E2 | 2018 | 2018 |
* One analyst suggests early 2015 | ||
** Market Intelligence estimate. |
We don’t have enough visibility on the Irkut MS-21 for inclusion in the Table.
Here’s a real oddity: A man in underwear broke into the German Chancellor’s airplane.
American-US Airways: Airchive has this long analysis (and it’s only Part 1 of 2), taking a look at the DOJ complaint. It’s 15 pages even after copy-and-paste into Word and re-sized to 10 point type.
Posted on August 22, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
AA-US Merger: Plane Business made available Aug. 21 its previous analysis of the proposed American Airlines-US Airways merger outside its paywall.
The analysis of the government’s analysis is pretty devastating to the government’s case. Read it and judge for yourself.
American’s general counsel, meanwhile, writes (in a report in The Dallas Morning News) that there is no Plan B to exit bankruptcy if the merger with US Airways is successfully blocked by the Department of Justice. Instead, AA would have to create a new bankruptcy-exit plan and return to all creditors and the court. This would take probably another couple of years, making it one of the longest (if not the longest) Chapter 11s in airline history–with all the related uncertainty to those affected by a Chapter 11. This is unfair to creditors and employees, and it will also wipe out any gains shareholders obtained in the current plan.
The DOJ clearly failed to take into account these impacts.
Air Canada eyes CSeries: The Globe and Mail reports that Air Canada is considering the Bombardier CSeries to replace the aging Embraer E-190 and Airbus A319 fleets. We expect the competition to be fierce: Airbus will certainly do what it can to block this sale (through pricing, no doubt) and we wouldn’t be at all surprised if Brazil would offer export financing for a replacement E-Jet fleet–something Bombardier can’t match because of the so-called Home Country rule prohibiting government financing for home-country airlines.
And then there is Boeing. The entire Airbus fleet is getting long in the tooth and our market intelligence tells us Air Canada is running a full narrow-body competition between Airbus and Boeing.
A re-fleeting decision is expected by year-end.
MRJ First Flight Delay: It’s been widely hinted, but now a supplier told Flight International that the first flight of the Mitsubishi MRJ is delayed to the end of 2014.
Posted on August 21, 2013 by Scott Hamilton