Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
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Pontifications: NMA, Boeing-Embraer headline Singapore Air Show
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 12, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The Singapore Air Show last week produced little in the way of new orders from the Big Four airframe OEMs. ATR announced a few deals and Embraer announced a letter of intent for the KC-390 multi-role tanker-transport.
The headline news revolved around the what-ifs: Boeing and the New Midrange Aircraft and Boeing and the link-up with Embraer.
Let’s look at the NMA first.
Next Sukhoi Superjet is a 75 seater
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 7, 2018, ©. Leeham Co: The President of Sukhoi Civil AirCraft (SCAC), Alexander Rubtsov (who is also the Sales and Marketing Manager of the civil aircraft division of Russia’s United Aircraft, UAC), told Flight Global at the Singapore Air Show there has been a decision to develop a 75-seat version of Sukhoi SuperJet (SSJ).
Sukhoi and United Aircraft have studied whether to develop a larger or smaller version of the SSJ. A Russian order for 100 of the smaller model tipped the decision to the 75-seat model.
Figure 1. SSJ100/95 from Cityjet wetleased to Brussels Airlines. Source: SCAC.
Bombardier Belfast operations are about more than C Series wings
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Introduction
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Belfast, Northern Ireland: These days, when mention of Bombardier’s production facility in Northern Ireland is mentioned, only one thought comes to mind: wings for the C Series.
But the facility is more than one: wings for the C Series. Nacelles for the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine for the Irkut MC-21 are also made in the same building. There are others, where fuselages and tail and wing components for the CRJ and multiple lines of business jets are also made.
Bombardier C Series final wing assembly plant, Belfast, Northern Ireland. Source: Bombardier.
The legacy of the facility dates to 1908, when the Short Brothers began building airplanes, including six Wright Brothers Flyers constructed under license.
It’s from the legacy of using composites on business jets and the CRJs that led to the C Series wings, using production methods that are more advanced than Airbus or Boeing.
Pontifications: 2018 starts off with a bang
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 29, 2018, © Leeham Co.: This year isn’t even a month old. If the rest of the year continues like January, commercial aviation is in for an exciting year.
The stunning news, of course, was last week’s shocking defeat for The Boeing Co. in its trade complaint over the Bombardier C Series sale to Delta Air Lines.
Nobody I know of thought Boeing would lose. It did, and by a unanimous verdict.
Then there was the order from Emirates Airline for the Airbus A380, saving the airplane from almost certain program termination.
The Boeing 787-10 was certified. The first delivery will be in March.
And Qatar Airways said it will receive the first Airbus A350-1000 next month.
Let’s look at these events.
What happened and what’s next in Boeing-Bombardier trade case?
Jan. 26, 2018, © Leeham Co.: The decision by the US International Trade Commission that Bombardier did no harm to Boeing with its sale of 75+50 CS100s to Delta Air Lines is a shocker.
The UK and Canadian governments thought Boeing would win, as it had at the US Department of Commerce. Observers and media, including LNC, were unanimous in believing Boeing would win. Bombardier did, too—already filing notices at the World Trade Organization and NAFTA to contest Commerce’s stiff tariff decisions.
With a 4-0 decision by ITC that Boeing suffered no harm, two questions arise:
What happened, and What’s next?
Boeing statement on loss in Bombardier trade case
Statement by The Boeing Company
January 26, 2018
“We are disappointed that the International Trade Commission did not recognize the harm that Boeing has 
suffered from the billions of dollars in illegal government subsidies that the Department of Commerce found Bombardier received and used to dump aircraft in the U.S. small single-aisle airplane market. Those violations have harmed the U.S. aerospace industry, and we are feeling the effects of those unfair business practices in the market every day.
“While we disagree with the ITC’s conclusion today, we will review the Commission’s more detailed opinions in full as they are released in the coming days.
“Boeing remains confident in the facts of our case and will continue to document any harm to Boeing and our extensive U.S. supply chain that results from illegal subsidies and dumped pricing. We will not stand by as Bombardier’s illegal business practices continue to harm American workers and the aerospace industry they support. Global trade only works if everyone adheres to the rules we have all agreed to. That’s a belief we will continue to defend.”
Breaking News: Bombardier wins at USITC–no harm to Boeing, in stunning unanimous vote
Jan. 26, 2018: In a shocking reversal and a stunning defeat for Boeing, the US International Trade Commission ruled unanimously Boeing was not harmed by Bombardier’s government subsidies and low-price deal to sell 75+50 CS100s to Delta Air Lines.
This means the prospect of tariffs, of 292%, is dead.
Details to come.
Boeing aims for half of 100-150 seat sector with 737-7
Jan. 24, 2018, © Leeham Co.: Dublin, Ireland: Boeing sees the 100-150 market sector as 10%-15% of the 20-year single-aisle market demand, or about 3,000-4,500 aircraft.
This compares with the 6,000-7,200 forecast by Bombardier.
Other companies fall within the 4,000 range.
Boeing doesn’t specifically segment the sector in its Current Market Outlook the 20-year forecast for regional, mainline, twin-aisle and cargo aircraft. However, Robert Michael, senior manager of product marketing for Boeing, disclosed the figure at the 20th Annual Airfinance Journal Conference Monday.
Michael said he expects the 737-7 MAX to capture about half the demand.