Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
- Tariffs Tumult Takes Over GE Aerospace Q1 2025 Earnings Call April 22, 2025
- Boeing reports mixed results of latest employee survey, but middle management and officers remain key obstacles April 22, 2025
- Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing April 21, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 14. The ATO.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
July 30, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through the later tasks in the Prelaunch Phase. We talked about Concept refinement, Supplier selection, and Certification work.
Now we dig deeper into the important Authorization To Offer (ATO) milestone. This is where the project starts to promise stuff to customers and others, and it can be both good and bad.
Figure 1. The Program Plan for our Green 19 seater. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see in full scale.
Airbus delivers strong 1H2021 and launches A350 Freighter
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 29, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus presented its results for the first half of 2021 today. The company reported a profit of €2.7bn on a turnover of €24.6bn, a very strong result from the -€0.9bn of last year. Yesterday, the Airbus board gave the go-ahead for the A350 freighter with planned entry into service 2025.
The strong result came from deliveries of 297 commercial aircraft, 100 more than the 196 of 1H2020. Net orders were 38 aircraft (1H2020 196). Guidance for 2021 was increased to 600 airliner deliveries with operating profit at €4bn and Free Cash Flow of €2bn.
Artist impression of the A350 Freighter. Credit: la-livery.net
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 13. Later in the Prelaunch Phase
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
July 23, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through the initial tasks in the Prelaunch Phase. We talked about Sales and Marketing activities, initial Concept development, and first Supplier contacts.
Now that time has passed, we are three quarters into our Program Plan (Figure 2), and we have to refine our Concept, select Suppliers, and dig deep into how to get Certification.
Figure 1. Windtunnel test of a half model of the wing and high lift devices. Source: ONERA.
De-carbonisation of air transport is ON
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 20, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week was a game-changing week for air transport. Three events synchronized to trigger it.
EU presented 13 policies to achieve net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050 with concrete steps in-between. On the same day, the airframe and engine OEM’s CTOs said in a Farnborough Connect webcast: “It’s a commitment problem, not a technical problem to achieve the EU goals.”
This happened against a backdrop of European floodings, which made all discussions about climate change or not moot. Super-organized Germany lost over 100 persons to typhoon like rains, never seen before, that produced scenes like these: https://twitter.com/Aviation_Intel/status/1416215953080205321?s=20
Figure 1. Farnborough Connect, from top-left: Moderator Johnson, Boeing’s Hussein, GE’s Lorence, Rolls-Royce’s Stein, SAFRAN’s Dalbier, Raytheon Technologies’ Russel, and Airbus’ Klauke.
The true cost of Electric Aircraft. Part 2.
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the cost of running an electric 19 seat airliner based on energy stored in batteries. We found the energy costs were lower than for the equivalent turboprop aircraft, but when we add the maintenance costs for the batteries, the operating costs were higher than today’s 19 seat commuter.
This was under the assumption that the battery aircraft had the same energy consumption as today’s aircraft. We now run this check. The result is eye-opening.
Figure 1. Heart Aerospace ES-19 battery-based airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary
- Battery based aircraft weigh significantly more than jet fuel based ones. It increases their energy consumption.
- Last week’s findings were conditioned on the same energy consumption. This week’s analysis proofs this is not a valid assumption.
The true cost of Electric Aircraft
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 1, 2021, © Leeham News: In our Friday Corners, we analyze the development challenges of aircraft. We will launch a concrete project Friday where we intend to develop a 19 seat airliner. To make it interesting, it will be a Green aircraft. We focus on the Certification issues in the Corner series.
To complement it, we here look at the operating cost of a battery-based electric airliner, as there are costs that are often not presented to the public in the marketing of these alternatives. The operational costs for the huge batteries are too often forgotten.
Figure 1. Heart Aerospace ES-19 battery based airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary
- Electric aircraft using batteries as energy stores are proposed for extreme short-range flights (below 200nm). The short flights shall make the weight of the batteries needed bearable.
- One advantage of these aircraft compared to today’s turboprops shall be their lower energy and maintenance costs. While this is true as long as we don’t count the batteries, including those in the maintenance costs changes the equation.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 2. Why Certification?
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
May 7, 2021, ©. Leeham News: The major challenge with developing commercial aircraft is the certification process. You can’t just develop the aircraft based on your unique knowledge and ideas, you must do it according to a detailed rulebook written with the knowledge from thousands of accidents and incidents.
From the beginning of the design process when you’re thinking about how big your engines would need to be or whether you can carry enough passengers to have a competitive advantage the certification rules influence (and sometimes govern) your design decisions.
Beyond just scrutiny of the design of the vehicle and its components, the process by which it is designed, the production site & methods used, and the organization doing the work all go through certification processes.
Figure 1. The FAA certification rules website. Source: FAA.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 27. Fuel cell APU gains
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: We have discussed different auxiliary power generation principles for a hydrogen aircraft over the last weeks. We found a fuel cell auxiliary power system has many attractions, one being the possibility of making an elegant more-electric aircraft system architecture.
With or without such an architecture, the fuel cell alternative will save hydrogen consumption and cost compared to a hydrogen-converted APU alternative. What’s the value of the saving?
Figure 1. The Ballard/Audi FCgen-HPS fuel cell stack for cars and other mobility applications. Source: Ballard Power Systems Inc.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 20. Hydrogen airliner weight shift
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 15, 2021, ©. Leeham News: In last week’s Corner, we looked at how hydrogen consumed in the rear fuselage tanks of Airbus’ ZEROe concept affect the airliner’s efficiency.
Now we look at other aspects of the rear placement of the tanks.
Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe turbofan airliner. Source: Airbus.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 19. Hydrogen airliner weight shift
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 8, 2021, ©. Leeham News: In our Corner before Christmas we discussed the hydrogen tank placement at the rear of the aircraft for Airbus’ ZEROe concept turbofan aircraft.
We now calculate how the weight transfer when emptying the tanks in the rear affects the ZEROe’s efficiency.
Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe hydrogen turbofan airliner. Source: Airbus.