Leeham News and Analysis
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Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 55. Sustainable Aviation Fuel feedstocks
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 27, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we learned the main pathways to Sustainable Aviation Fuel and their production volumes for the next years.
Now we look at the feedstocks, what output we get from these, and how to safeguard the pathway is ethical and sustainable. Finally, we look at the cost of SAF until 2050.
Figure 1. The main pathways to SAF. Source: Clean Skies for Tomorrow report. Click to enlarge.
2023 outlook for Sustainable Aviation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Jan. 16, 2023, © Leeham News: In the years from 2015, Sustainable Aviation awareness has grown from “something interesting, but will it be needed?” to “how do we fix the environmental issues we have fast enough.” Scientists saw what happened 20 years ago, but the general public didn’t react until it affected everyday life.
The development of more Sustainable Aviation solutions has taken a similar route. Until 2015 the changes to morph aviation into a more sustainable path were a scientific discussion. At Le Bourget Air Show 2015, Airbus presented the E-Fan (Figure 1) that would cross the English Channel the following month. It started an intense debate about sustainable propulsion concepts for aircraft.
Eight years later, where are we today, and what will happen in 2023?
Figure 1. Airbus E-Fan at the 2015 Le Bourget Air Show. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary:
- The year will witness the “separation of the wheat from the chaff.” Viable concepts will prove themselves, and thin concepts, technically or funding-wise, will fail.
- We have a number of first flights from interesting projects. Several are in the “wheat” category.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 53. Sustainable Aviation Fuel
By Bjorn Fehrm.
January 13, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we could see in an example how effective Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF, blended into our regular Jet fuel, would be in reducing CO2 emissions until 2050.
It’s the only technology that can substantially influence our emissions over the next 30 years, as alternate technologies like hydrogen-fueled airliners need to ramp to thousands of aircraft before it affects emissions.
To understand SAF and how it can be produced and blended into Jet fuel, we first need to understand what Jet fuel is.
Figure 1. An Iberia A340 filled up with Jet-A1. Source: Wikipedia.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 52. What can be done before 2050?
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 6, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Since we started this series about our Air Transports and their pollution, we have covered different schemes of reduction such as improved Air Traffic Control (ATC), change to electric aircraft (battery/hybrids) or hydrogen as fuel, and lastly, eVTOLs.
Of these changes, only ATC can have a short-term effect, but it’s a slow mover for organizational reasons.
Changes to how our aircraft are propelled are, unfortunately, longer-term improvements, as we see in an example below.
But we need fast change. We’ve had the craziest of summer and now winter in Europe, where I live, and it’s not a one-time variation. And this is not confined to Europe; the weather change is faster than we thought, and it’s worldwide.
So what can we do?
Figure 1. CO2 emissions by region. Source: Our World in Data.
Universal Hydrogen’s ATR72 Project
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 22, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we wrote about Universal Hydrogen’s (UH2) plans to fly a hydrogen-fueled demonstrator aircraft in early 2023, followed by a certified conversion kit for an ATR72 airliner mid-decade.
The plans for the ATR72 hydrogen conversion are at an advanced state. As the first publication, we can describe the overall design and the technical details. The ATR72 implementation brings improvements in several areas compared with what’s been revealed before.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank modules are loaded onto an ATR 72 using standard freight handling equipment. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The target ATR72 conversion improves hydrogen capacity and handling compared to earlier concepts.
- The influence on the ATR seating capacity is reduced due to more efficient packaging on the aircraft.
Universal Hydrogen could be first with Hydrogen Airliner
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By Scott Hamilton and Bjorn Fehrm
Dec. 15, 2022, © Leeham News: Universal Hydrogen (UH2) is perhaps weeks away from its first flight of a demonstrator that equips a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-300 with tanks of hydrogen and a fuel cell electric propulsion unit. The project shall prove the feasibility of hydrogen-fueled airliners.
The first flight’s date hasn’t been firmly set, but officials at UH2 told LNA it should be soon. Taxi tests of the aircraft will begin in the coming weeks. The flight will occur at Moses Lake in Central Washington State.
Universal Hydrogen supplies its hydrogen to the aircraft in prefilled barrel-sized tanks, called capsules, to avoid the lengthy and costly investment in storing and filling infrastructure at airports. The proof of concept is with a Dash 8, followed by a complete hydrogen conversion kit for an ATR-72 turboprop airliner.
Figure 1. Hydrogen tank pallets are loaded onto an ATR 72 by standard cargo loaders. Source: Universal Hydrogen.
Summary:
- The core business of Universal Hydrogen is the prefilled hydrogen tanks that load onto the aircraft in pallets.
- Universal Hydrogen builds the complete hydrogen fuel and propulsion system to prove and bootstrap the concept of hydrogen airliners.
Airbus Summit Showcases Sustainability Status
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 7, 2022, © Leeham News was at Airbus Summit: Airbus briefed media and influences on its Sustainability progress during briefings in Toulouse and Munich last week. Here is an update on where Airbus is with its programs.
The overall impression is of tangible progress on techno brick research and development and echo systems programs like SAF production and hydrogen supply and ground infrastructure.
At the summit, key customers like Airlines, technology partners, and leasing companies were part of the panels, giving the customer perspective and the view of the passengers.
Figure 1. The test setup of the Airbus fuel cell turboprop engine on its A380 test aircraft. Source: Airbus.
HOTR: United likely can cancel A350 order with little penalty
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: United Airlines appears on the cusp of ordering as many as 100 Boeing 787s, multiple news outlets report. Airbus hopes to sell more A350s to United to supplement the 45 already on order.
But these 45 A350-900s are an order that has been viewed as iffy since United merged with Continental Airlines. Although ostensibly United was the surviving carrier, in reality, Continental was the survivor. The latter’s management displaced United’s old management. The livery retained was Continental’s.
The A350 order was placed by the old United management. The new executives added to the United order, but Continental had been an exclusive buyer of Boeing aircraft and executives were predisposed toward Boeing. UAL now has 120 Airbus A321XLRs on order. But this came after Boeing couldn’t decide whether to launch the New Midmarket Airplane after years of dithering. With a large fleet of Boeing 757s aging and in need of eventual replacement, United could no longer wait for Boeing to make a decision.
United already has a large fleet of 787s. Adding the A350s will provide an extra range that the 787s don’t have. But how many routes need the extra range to justify another fleet type?
LNA believes that United can cancel the orders for 45 A350s at little cost. The deposits may easily be applied to orders for more A321s, but cancellation penalties are believed to be de minimis. Based on 2018 list prices—the last ones published by Airbus—United could get about 110 more A321s in exchange for the A350s. (The number is probably a little less since the XLRs are more expensive than the A321neo “standard;” the list price makes no distinction between the sub-types.)
LNA expects United to cancel the A350s sooner than later and add to the A321 order.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 42. eVTOL range.
By Bjorn Fehrm.
October 21, 2022, ©. Leeham News: This is a summary of the article Part 42P, eVTOL range. It discusses the range of a typical eVTOL flying a feeder mission from a city center to an airport.
The 42P article details the energy consumption for each stage in the mission and the range we fly. We summarize the results here.
Figure 1. The Vertical Aerospace VX4 in an early rendering with similar looks to the eVTOL we discuss. Source: Vertical Aerospace.
ICAO report outlines steps to reduce aviation’s carbon output
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By BRYAN CORLISS
Sept. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: Saying the climate crisis now is at “Code Red for Humanity,” the UN-sponsored International Civil Aviation Organization is calling on nations and companies to increase their investments toward techniques and technologies that can reduce aviation’s climate impact.
It won’t be easy, ICAO said in its Environmental Report 2022, which was released in July.
The aviation industry will be one of the hardest to ween off carbon-based forms of energy, a recent report concluded.
“Scaling the production of sustainable aviation fuels (SAF) and other energy sources requires substantial investment and financial support from both fuel suppliers and governments on top of what would be needed for associated infrastructural changes,” the report said. “This is particularly important, considering that the drop-in fuels have the largest potential to reduce the overall emission from international aviation by 2050.”
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