Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
777X demand grows ever less certain
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Sep. 6, 2021, © Leeham News: As Boeing slogs through an increasingly deep obstacle path to getting its beleaguered 777X into service, questions are growing around the airplane’s true demand and whether Boeing can ever break even on the program.
The manufacturer classifies 74 orders as questionable under the ASC 606 accounting standard. Boeing now counts only 246 777X orders as firm. It now expects entry into service to occur in late 2023, although key customer Emirates Airline believes this is more likely to be early 2024.
There are officially still eight identified customers for the passenger 777X: ANA, British Airways, Cathay Pacific, Emirates, Etihad, Lufthansa, Qatar Airways, Singapore Airlines. But COVID-19 is forcing major network carriers like these to rethink their long-term growth plans. Increasing competition in Europe and Asia over a likely permanently smaller set of business travelers means even fewer of these orders are likely to remain intact.
Boeing’s first 777X departs on its maiden flight in January 2020. Source: CNN.
Boeing CEO David Calhoun recently said a freighter version of the 777X might replace today’s 777F. New ICAO noise and emission standards mean that the 777F and 767-300ERF, can’t be produced after 2027. But it’s unclear whether the 777-8F — a program that hasn’t been launched — will be ready by 2028.
Summary
- Passenger 777X is troubled by permanent loss in premium traffic, poor financial risk profile.
- 777X freighter demand is limited by 777F classic market size, P2F conversion feedstock.
- The air cargo market will revert to historical norms.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 19. Test rigs for ground and air use
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca
September 3, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the Certification Compliance Planning we do concurrently with Detailed Design, Figure 1.
It’s now time for us to work on our Test rigs and systems for ground and flight testing. We need to get these defined before we freeze the aircraft’s configuration and start making our flight test aircraft.
Figure 1. The program plan for our project. Source: Leeham Co.
The single-aisle freighters, 737-800BCF versus A320P2F.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
September 2, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at domestic single-aisle freighters based on the Boeing 737-800 and the Airbus A320. The 737-800BCF is the follow-on small Boeing freighter conversion from the 737-400, as more 737-800 passenger feed-stock becomes available.
There is also ample feed-stock of older A320-200 with market values that make these interesting as a P2F freighter.
Which one of the two offers the lowest costs per tonne-km? We use our performance model to find out.
Boeing’s 737-800BCF Source: Boeing.
Summary
- Both the 737-800 and A320 older aircraft are available at prices that make freighter conversions attractive.
- Which of these freighters has the best operating economics, and what is the difference in capacity?
Rejuvenating the current in-service cargo fleet
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 30, 2021, © Leeham News: The COVID-19 pandemic lingers on passenger airlines, delaying a full traffic recovery. At the same time, the freighter market is very active and shows no signs of abating.
Credit: Airbus
A surplus of passenger aircraft and record cargo demand means that passenger-to-freighter conversion lines are firing on all cylinders. On top of the existing Boeing 757 and 767 lines, new ones are coming online to convert Airbus A321s, A330s, and 777-300ERs.
Airbus launched the A350F program while Boeing is pondering a 777X-F program. Airbus is also discussing the launch of a factory A321F. The European OEM wants to increase its footprint in a Boeing stronghold.
Boeing also keeps accumulating new freighter orders at a healthy pace.
While some factory-built and converted freighters will be for growth, a significant portion will replace older in-service aircraft.
To complement the ongoing series comparing the economics of freighter aircraft and analysis of historical deliveries, LNA now examines the current in-service fleet. Analyzing aircraft in operation will help determine the most promising replacement opportunities for converted and factory freighters.
Summary
- Overall jet freighter fleet view;
- Significant single-aisle replacement opportunities;
- One market concentrates most small dual-aisle fleet;
- One large freighter fleet up for replacement;
- A factor that could accelerate replacements.
Pontifications: IAI moves to cement lead in 777 P2F conversions
- IAI, Etihad ink Boeing 777-300ER P2F deal.
- De Havilland union sniffs kerosene.
Aug. 30, 2021, ©Leeham News: The agreement last week between IAI and Etihad Airways to open a Boeing 777-300ER P2F conversion line in Abu Dhabi gives a major boost to the burgeoning program.
By Scott Hamilton
In addition to the history-making tie-up between an Israeli company and the United Arad Emirates, and a commitment by Etihad to convert 777s to freighters with IAI, the move is a major coup for IAI to win other Arab airline business.
IAI and the former GECAS, which was acquired by AerCap, launched the first 777 P2F program in 2019. GECAS ordered 15 conversions of the -300ER and optioned 15 more.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 18. Certification work after program launch.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
August 27, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we started looking at our work during the Detailed Design phase after Product Launch. We outlined the exacting work needed to design all parts of the aircraft and how we must keep everything in sync.
An essential part of keeping everything in sync is the Certification Compliance Planning we do in this phase, Figure 1.
Figure 1. The program plan for our project. Source: Leeham Co.
The factory freighters, Boeing’s 767-300F versus Airbus’ A330-200F
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 26, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we try to understand why the Boeing 767 factory freighter, the 767-300F, has outsold the Airbus entry, the A330-200F, six to one. In the passenger variants, the Airbus A330 is the more popular model with a 30% delivery advantage.
We model the freighters to understand any technical and operating economics differences; then we complement with market observations.
UPS was the launch customer for the 767-300F, with first delivery in October 1995.
Summary
- The Boeing 767 freighter is the market’s most successful widebody freighter after the Boeing 777F.
- It has, over the years, trumped the Airbus entry, A330-200F six to one in sales and five to one in deliveries. We investigate why?
Sustainable Aero Lab disqualifies “Greenwash” investments
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 25, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Times change and the use of words with it. Today, the hundreds of UAM Air Taxi projects talk about how “environmentally friendly” this mode of transportation is, and Boom’s Overture is “the most Sustainable supersonic airliner.” The aerospace media recently focused on how we now have “Space Travel for everyone (in possession of the necessary pocket change).”
The head of Sustainable Aero Lab, Stephan Uhrenbacher, disqualifies these investments in a study on where to invest in fixing air transport’s pressing problems: “The startups receiving the most attention in aerospace recently have been doing space travel and urban air taxis. While these products make for exiting flying objects and satisfy human desire, neither air taxis nor putting more people in space address the problem facing commercial aviation: Flying needs to become carbon-free. And this needs to happen much faster than most people in the industry believe. It opens room for startups to provide components for future aircraft or even entire planes, but also new modes of operation.”
Figure 1. The promising Sustainable Aviation startups. Source: Sustainable Aero Lab.
Aircraft replacement conundra
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Credit: Delta Air Lines
Aug. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing has been studying the launch of a clean-sheet aircraft design for more than a decade. In light of the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is unlikely the American OEM will launch such a program until a recovery is well underway.
At this point, no one, including LNA, knows for sure what the New Boeing Aircraft (NBA) will be and, most importantly, when it will likely enter service. Among the possible scenarios, Boeing could decide to wait until more innovative propulsive technology, such as an open rotor, is mature enough.
Should Boeing decide to take the latter path, the NBA would realistically enter into service in the middle of the next decade. Under such a scenario, airlines operating older-generation aircraft need to find replacements among the current type of in-service aircraft.
Most older-generation in-service aircraft seating 100 or more passengers have an immediate replacement in size, which usually comes with more payload-range capacity. However, some don’t, which creates a headache for fleet planners.
LNA will highlight in this article the current in-service aircraft that don’t have an immediate replacement and assess the options to replace those.
Summary
- Lack of close replacements in two market segments;
- One market isn’t a problem for passenger airlines
- But another can be;
- One variant concentrates most aircraft without replacements;
- A carrier to watch.
Pontifications: Does Embraer’s turboprop design foretell what Boeing needs?
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Could Embraer’s new turboprop design have formed the basis for the 100-150 seat Boeing single-aisle aircraft had the joint venture proceeded?
A former Boeing engineer thinks it might have.
The aft-mounted, open rotor engines and the ability to switch later to hydrogen fuel represent the kind of advances Boeing could use to restore its leadership role in commercial aviation.
Under the proposed JV, which Boeing ash-canned in April 2020, Embraer would have been responsible for development of the 100-150 seat aircraft Boeing needs to replace the 737-7 and 737-8.