Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Pontifications: IAI moves to cement lead in 777 P2F conversions
- IAI, Etihad ink Boeing 777-300ER P2F deal.
- De Havilland union sniffs kerosene.
Aug. 30, 2021, ©Leeham News: The agreement last week between IAI and Etihad Airways to open a Boeing 777-300ER P2F conversion line in Abu Dhabi gives a major boost to the burgeoning program.
By Scott Hamilton
In addition to the history-making tie-up between an Israeli company and the United Arad Emirates, and a commitment by Etihad to convert 777s to freighters with IAI, the move is a major coup for IAI to win other Arab airline business.
IAI and the former GECAS, which was acquired by AerCap, launched the first 777 P2F program in 2019. GECAS ordered 15 conversions of the -300ER and optioned 15 more.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 18. Certification work after program launch.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
August 27, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we started looking at our work during the Detailed Design phase after Product Launch. We outlined the exacting work needed to design all parts of the aircraft and how we must keep everything in sync.
An essential part of keeping everything in sync is the Certification Compliance Planning we do in this phase, Figure 1.
Figure 1. The program plan for our project. Source: Leeham Co.
The factory freighters, Boeing’s 767-300F versus Airbus’ A330-200F
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 26, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we try to understand why the Boeing 767 factory freighter, the 767-300F, has outsold the Airbus entry, the A330-200F, six to one. In the passenger variants, the Airbus A330 is the more popular model with a 30% delivery advantage.
We model the freighters to understand any technical and operating economics differences; then we complement with market observations.
UPS was the launch customer for the 767-300F, with first delivery in October 1995.
Summary
- The Boeing 767 freighter is the market’s most successful widebody freighter after the Boeing 777F.
- It has, over the years, trumped the Airbus entry, A330-200F six to one in sales and five to one in deliveries. We investigate why?
Sustainable Aero Lab disqualifies “Greenwash” investments
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 25, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Times change and the use of words with it. Today, the hundreds of UAM Air Taxi projects talk about how “environmentally friendly” this mode of transportation is, and Boom’s Overture is “the most Sustainable supersonic airliner.” The aerospace media recently focused on how we now have “Space Travel for everyone (in possession of the necessary pocket change).”
The head of Sustainable Aero Lab, Stephan Uhrenbacher, disqualifies these investments in a study on where to invest in fixing air transport’s pressing problems: “The startups receiving the most attention in aerospace recently have been doing space travel and urban air taxis. While these products make for exiting flying objects and satisfy human desire, neither air taxis nor putting more people in space address the problem facing commercial aviation: Flying needs to become carbon-free. And this needs to happen much faster than most people in the industry believe. It opens room for startups to provide components for future aircraft or even entire planes, but also new modes of operation.”
Figure 1. The promising Sustainable Aviation startups. Source: Sustainable Aero Lab.
Aircraft replacement conundra
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Credit: Delta Air Lines
Aug. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing has been studying the launch of a clean-sheet aircraft design for more than a decade. In light of the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, it is unlikely the American OEM will launch such a program until a recovery is well underway.
At this point, no one, including LNA, knows for sure what the New Boeing Aircraft (NBA) will be and, most importantly, when it will likely enter service. Among the possible scenarios, Boeing could decide to wait until more innovative propulsive technology, such as an open rotor, is mature enough.
Should Boeing decide to take the latter path, the NBA would realistically enter into service in the middle of the next decade. Under such a scenario, airlines operating older-generation aircraft need to find replacements among the current type of in-service aircraft.
Most older-generation in-service aircraft seating 100 or more passengers have an immediate replacement in size, which usually comes with more payload-range capacity. However, some don’t, which creates a headache for fleet planners.
LNA will highlight in this article the current in-service aircraft that don’t have an immediate replacement and assess the options to replace those.
Summary
- Lack of close replacements in two market segments;
- One market isn’t a problem for passenger airlines
- But another can be;
- One variant concentrates most aircraft without replacements;
- A carrier to watch.
Pontifications: Does Embraer’s turboprop design foretell what Boeing needs?
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 23, 2021, © Leeham News: Could Embraer’s new turboprop design have formed the basis for the 100-150 seat Boeing single-aisle aircraft had the joint venture proceeded?
A former Boeing engineer thinks it might have.
The aft-mounted, open rotor engines and the ability to switch later to hydrogen fuel represent the kind of advances Boeing could use to restore its leadership role in commercial aviation.
Under the proposed JV, which Boeing ash-canned in April 2020, Embraer would have been responsible for development of the 100-150 seat aircraft Boeing needs to replace the 737-7 and 737-8.
HOTR: When “Buy American” isn’t
By the Leeham News Team
Aug. 20, 2021, © Leeham News: President Biden’s “Buy American” policy means increasing the US content in things purchased by the federal government. Except when it doesn’t.
Biden announced the policy in July. LNA raised the prospect that the increasing US content requirements could make it difficult for Lockheed Martin and Airbus to offer an A330-200-based airplane for the US Air Force’s KC-Y Bridge Tanker.
LNA now has clarity on this. Under Biden’s Buy American policy, there are—as it turns out—some key exemptions.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 17. Detailed design
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
August 20, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through our second Design Refinement and how our Processes and Tools must be mature because the next step in the Post Launch phase is Detailed Design.
If the previous phases were about research and inspirational design work, where we measured, collated, and documented the overall design data for the aircraft, Detail Design is about a massive amount of work packages and execution.
Figure 1. The Design of wing structure in CATIA 5. Source: Youtube channel: Magic of Design Software.
The P2F freighters, 757-200P2F versus A321P2F.
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 19, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at domestic freighters based on the Boeing 757-200 and the Airbus A321. The 757-200 is a popular Passenger to Freighter (P2F) conversion, but as production of the 757 stopped in 2004, there is a limit to the conversion feed-stock for the model.
At the same time, older A321s are reaching market values where their cost enables competitive P2F conversions.
We use our performance model to check if the A321P2F is a good alternative to the 757-200P2F.
The first EFW A321P2F was delivered to Qantas in October 2020. Source: Qantas.
Summary
- The feed-stock for the Boeing 757-200 Passenger to Freighter conversions will diminish at some point in the future.
- The alternative in the same freight volume class is a converted A321. We check how well it fits the bill as an alternative to the 757-200.
An Update on Airbus, Boeing Orders at Risk
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and delays in the re-certification of the 737 MAX, Boeing lost a large number of 737 MAX orders in 2020. The majority of the cancellations were flagged as ASC 606 adjustments on Boeing Commercial Airplane’s website.
Since the Federal Aviaton Administraton lifted the 737 MAX grounding in November, the program has accumulated new orders from longtime Boeing customers, notably Alaska Airlines, Ryanair, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines.
Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule similar to the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report.
LNA analyzed in July and November last year Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We perform an update of this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs.
Summary
- Difference between LNA and Boeing methodology
- Adjustments exacerbate traditional OEM strengths and weaknesses;
- An upcoming order book clean-up for older programs;
- Two programs with material adjustments;
- Some twin-aisle variants are less popular than others.