Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Boeing Board Aerospace Safety Committee recommends realignment, enhancement of procedures
Admiral Edmund Giambastiani (Ret). Photo credit: Wetheitalians.com
Sept. 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing today outlined the results of the investigation of a special Board of Directors committee formed in August that creates new processes and organizational structures aimed at preventing another 737 MAX crisis and improving safety within Boeing Commercial Airplanes.
The Board-level Aerospace Safety Committee is the four-member committee announced by Boeing CEO Dennis Muilenburg following the second fatal accident of the MAX in March.
Admiral Edmund Giambastiani (Ret), a former nuclear submarine officer, chaired the committee. As a result of the committee’s work, the following recommendations have been made:
- Create a Product and Services Safety Organization;
- Realign the Engineering Function;
- Establish a Design Requirements Program;
- Enhance the Continued Operation Safety Program;
- Re-examine flight deck design and operation; and
- Expand the role and reach of the Safety Promotion Center.
The Struggling European Regional Airlines
- This is the third in a series of articles on the struggling low cost and leisure carriers in Europe.
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Sep. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: Numerous European regional airlines are struggling financially.
FlyBe was sold earlier this year for a symbolic amount to Connect Airways. The new airlines’ shareholders are Stobart Air, Virgin Atlantic and Cyrus Capital Partners.
UK regional carrier flybmi ceased operations earlier this year. Air France announced a 15% cut in domestic capacity at regional subsidiary Hop! after years of steep losses.
In spite of their struggles, European regional airlines represent a significant market for aircraft OEMs. The Airbus A220, Embraer E2 and turboprop programs count on new European airline orders to bolster their order book.
Summary
- A fragmented industry;
- Another prevailing business models than in the USA;
- Influence of geography and public transportation;
- Dearth of latest generation aircraft orders;
- External factors threatening the industry.
Pontifications: Montreal facility is the next step for SpaceJet program
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 23, 2019, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi Aircraft Corp (MITAC) last week opened a new office facility in Montreal intended to initially support certification of the M90 regional jet and participate in the development of the M100 and M200 follow-on airplanes.
The M90 entry-into-service is targeted for next year.
Japan’s regulatory agency, JCAB, hasn’t certified a new airliner since the turbo-prop YS-11 of the 1960s. Japan’s aerospace industry developed several military aircraft, but none of these required civilian certification.
Alex Bellamy, the chief development office of the M-Series program, called SpaceJet, said, “The development of this [Montreal] center is the last of the piece of the puzzle” to certify the M90 and advance what was originally known as the MRJ program.
Bjorn’s Corner: Fly by steel or electrical wire, Part 9
By Bjorn Fehrm
September 20, 2019, ©. Leeham News: In our series about classical flight controls (“fly by steel wire”) and Fly-By-Wire (FBW or “fly by electrical wire”) we discussed the FBW flight control system of Embraer’s E-Jet E2 series last week.
We have now covered examples of classical flight controls and their modern FBW counterparts. Now we discuss how these handle different stability augmentation needs like Yaw damping, Mach tuck protection or Pitch control improvements like the Boeing 737 MAX MCAS system.
Figure 1. The pitch moment curve of a modern airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus’ A220-300 for the 120 to 150 seat segment?
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
September 19, 2019, ©. Leeham News: What aircraft to choose for the segment 120 to 150 seats, Embraer’s E195-E2 or Airbus A220-300? After discussions with Airbus’ Rob Dewar at the Paris Airshow, Head of A220 Engineering and Product Support, and a visit to Embraer last week for the E195-E2’s first customer delivery, we have collected some unique insights.
We also had the opportunity to talk to David Neeleman of Azul, Moxy and TAP Portugal when at Embraer, the only owner/operator which has bought both aircraft; E195-E2 for Azul and A220-300 for his Moxy project.
Summary:
- We start with a detailed comparison of the aircraft in this first article.
- While serving the same passenger capacity segment, they are surprisingly different in their design approach and, therefore, in their characteristics.
Milestone for Embraer with the E195-E2
Sept. 18, 2019, © Leeham News: Embraer passed a milestone last week with the delivery of the first E195-E2, to Azul Airlines of Brazil.
The airplane is the largest Embraer has designed. It’s bigger than the KC-390 tanker-transport. It’s longer than the Boeing 737-8 but shorter than the Boeing 737-9. It carries 146 passengers in high density configuration.
The marketing head for Embraer’s US offices says the E195-E2 will be the sales leader while the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, John Slattery, said it will account for a third of program sales.
Either way, LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm was on site for the delivery and tomorrow will begin a series of articles analyzing the design of the E195-E2 and its economics compared with its nearest competitor, the Airbus A220.
Lower interest rates, a tailwind for new orders
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Sep. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: Over the last few weeks, LNA outlined significant production gaps from 2022 onwards for the major widebody programs at Airbus and Boeing. The OEMs expect airlines to place large fleet renewal orders to fill those.
Aircraft deliveries need to be financed one way or another. Access to affordable financing is crucial for airlines and lessors to make good on their orders.
Interest rates in the world’s major currencies hit an all-time low a few weeks ago. The 30-year US Treasury yield dipped below 2%, while the 10Y German Bund was at -70 basis points.
Corporations duly took advantage of the lower rates to issue record amounts of debt in US dollars during the first week of September. United Airlines and Bank of China Aviation were among them.
We will analyze how lower interest rates could benefit the aviation industry.
Summary
- Varying interest rate exposure for airlines and lessors.
- Level of access to capital markets among airlines.
- Hurdles to capitalize on low interest rates.
- Unlikely beneficiaries if low rates persist in the near future.
- Boosting new widebody order prospects.
Pontifications: Spirit Air reveals new seats at Apex
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 16, 2019, © Leeham News: Los Angeles—Spirit Airlines, a US ultra-low-cost carrier, is upgrading its passenger seating experience, the airline’s CEO announced last week at the Apex Expo 2019 event.
Ted Christie unveiled new designs for its Big Front Seat—Spirit’s version of First Class—and coach seats that are ergonomically designed and intended to add more room and redefine how seats are measured.
The Big Front Seat appears little different than the previous version—more padding seems to be the main feature.
But the changes to coach seating, where most people fly, are billed to have the potential to make a big difference compared with the ever-slimmer, increasingly uncomfortable seats offered by many suppliers and installed on most airlines.
WTO clears US for $10bn in tariffs in Airbus subsidy case
Sept. 14, 2019, © Leeham News: The World Trade organization Friday concluded that the US may impose up to $10bn in tariffs against the European Union as a final result of the 15-year trade dispute over Airbus subsidies.
Politico first reported the WTO decision, which has not been made public.
Airbus issued a terse statement.
“The WTO decision is neither public nor authorized for release. We do not comment on rumors on a report that is not public,” a spokesman said in an email. “Aviation is a global industry, and no aircraft comes from one single country or zone. Nobody will win — it’s a lose-lose for the whole industry if we move to tariffs.”
Boeing declined comment.
Look to 2013 787 grounding to see how Boeing will return MAX to service
By Scott Hamilton
Sept. 13, 2019, © Leeham News: As Boeing prepares for what it hopes is an imminent recertification of the 737 MAX from the Federal Aviation Administration, how it will handle the logistics of returning 381 grounded airplanes to service and delivering nearly 300 more undelivered 737s is key.
One need look to the only other time a Boeing jetliner, the 787, was grounded and how “One Boeing” coalesced to attack what was then its largest logistical task for its commercial airplanes unit.
The return to service of the 787 paled compared with the task facing Boeing today. In 2013, there were only 50 787s grounded worldwide after two lithium ion battery incidents: one fire and one near-fire, one on the ground and the other as the airplane took off.
In 2013, the production rate of the 787 was in the single digits per month. The 737 is being produced at a rate of 42/mo.
In 2013, there were a few score of 787s parked around Everett’s Paine Field awaiting delivery. Today, the nearly 600 737s are scattered around four locations in Washington State, a Boeing facility in Texas and various airline storage areas around the globe.
In May 2013, I wrote a freelance piece for CNN’s website how Boeing planned to return the 787 to service. This story may be found here.