Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Embraer downplays tariff impact on 2025 results May 6, 2025
- JetZero readies effort for private equity fund raising May 5, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
A380Plus: First analysis, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
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July 10, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: We went through the changes that are included in the Airbus A380Plus development study last week.
The study packages several improvements to the A380, improving the aerodynamics, increasing the passenger capacity and lowering maintenance costs.
The aim is to improve the cost per seat of the A380 to keep it competitive with the new Boeing 777-9. With the rundown of the improvements complete we now use our aircraft model to see if the cost per passenger can compete with the 777.
Summary:
- The A380Plus improvements makes the A380 competitive on Cash Operating seat mile Costs with the Boeing 777-9.
- The problem on how to fill the 70% larger A380 remains. It needs other solutions.
Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 07, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: In last Corner we could see that battery driven electric aircraft will be for the extreme short-haul.
The stored energy per kg battery is 70 times lower than for fuel. In addition the weight is constant. Fuel gets burned off during the flight.
A more useful configuration is the hybrid, which adds a combustion driven generator as energy source.
Figure 1. The Siemens electrically engined Extra 330LE aircraft. Source: Siemens.
Qantas’ ultra-long haul dream, Part 3
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
July 06, 2017, © Leeham Co.: In previous articles we have learned how to fly the challenging route Sydney-London direct. From a well-informed person in Qantas we learned not to fight the winds. We shall use them. If we fly intelligently we put a cap on the longest distance we fly, even on windy days.
The other way around, London to Sydney, is less of a challenge. The aircraft is blown down under by the winds.
Figure 1. Qantas planned URL routes with Great Circle distances. Source: Great Circle mapper.
Now we use our aircraft model to understand how Airbus’ A350-900ULR and Boeing’s 777-8 would cope with the route.
Summary:
- The ideas of Qantas did not stop with not fighting the winds.
- We also learned how to simplify the analysis process for URL aircraft and routes.
- Forget about cabins, seats and passengers. It’s all about the hauled weight.
A380Plus: First analysis
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 05, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus launched the A380Plus development study at the Paris Air Show. The study packages several improvements to the A380, aimed at increasing the capacity and lowering the cost per passenger. The idea is to offer the advantages of an A380neo without changing the engines.
Does this work? We published a first reaction here. We now take a closer look at what was presented and analyze how the package will influence the economics of the A380. Read more
Taking Antonov’s AN-32 to the AN-132
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 04, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: Antonov showed the new AN-132 multipurpose transport at the Paris Air Show. The aircraft is the first product from Antonov which is reindustrialized to Western standards and technology.
We sat with Antonov’s Vice President of Development, Dr. Alexander Los, to understand the process.
MAX 8 conversions to MAX 10 outweigh MAX 9
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Introduction
July 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: There were conversions of 214 orders from other 737 MAX programs in favor of the 361 orders and commitments announced at the Paris Air Show for the launch of the 737 MAX 10.
Aside from the easily identifiable 100 MAX 9 orders from United Airlines, the other conversions weren’t readily apparent.
An analysis by LNC indicates that about half of the conversions came from the MAX 8.
Summary
- The MAX 10 orders and commitments surpass the MAX 9 after PAS, becoming the second most in-demand of the MAX family.
- LNC estimates that about 300 orders remain for the MAX 9, higher if Lion Air’s MAX order is allocated on a pro-rata basis.
- A lot of MAX 8/9 series orders are TBD, with no immediate selection by the customer.
Pontifications: Going where the excitement is
By Scott Hamilton
July 3, 2017, © Leeham Co.: Friday’s news leak to Reuters that Airbus CEO Tom Enders will assume direct control over commercial airplane sales is but the latest in a nine-month-long set of changes not just at Airbus but also at Boeing.
Bjorn’s Corner: Electric aircraft, Part 1
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 30, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: One of the areas I explored while at Paris Air Show last week was electric aircraft technology. With electric aircraft, we mean an aircraft where the propeller/fan is driven my an electrical motor.
We don’t talk about “more electrical aircraft systems” like for the Boeing 787.
One of the companies investing in technology for electric aircraft is Siemens. A Siemens-engined aerobatic aircraft, the Extra 330LE, made daily flight displays during the show.
Figure 1. The Siemens engined Extra 330LE aerobatic aircraft. Source: Siemens.
Qantas’ ultra-long haul dream, Part 2
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription Required
Introduction
June 28, 2017, © Leeham Co.: It’s now time to continue our article on how Qantas could fly the coveted route Sydney-London direct.
Our first article aired the 25th of May. A knowledgeable Qantas person contacted us after the article. He explained there is a smarter way to plan Ultra-Long-Haul (ULR) flying than we assumed.
After an interesting dialogue, we can now continue the article series. Qantas taught us a trick or two how to fly ULR missions.
While there was nothing wrong in our route data from article one, there is a clever way to avoid the flight distance from escalating on windy days.
Summary:
- The direct distance Sydney-London is 9,200nm the shortest way.
- On a windy day, this would extend to 10,000nm air distance when going West, if smarts aren’t used.
- We now explain how an airline excelling in Ultra-Long-Haul flights over oceanic waters, caps the longest distances it has to fly.
MRJ entering more stable phase
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 28, 2017, ©. Leeham Co: The Mitsubishi Regional Jet, MRJ, has been through troubled years. The aircraft, which should have entered the market 2013, will now be delivered to first customer, All Nippon Airways (ANA), in mid-2020.
The latest delay, announced in January 2017, was significant: from mid-2018 to mid-2020.
We sat down with MRJ’s Program and Flight test management to understand what is going on. Read more