Leeham News and Analysis
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Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 20. May 2, 2025
- Supplier Howmet exceeds expectations despite tariffs May 1, 2025
- Airbus 1Q2025 results: So far, so good, but US tariffs make future results unpredictable May 1, 2025
- Does an Airbus A220-500 need a new wing and engines? May 1, 2025
- Teamsters, Boeing have a new contract April 29, 2025
Embraer’s EVE brings some reality to UAM/eVTOL sector
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 18, 2023, © Leeham News: There are hundreds of “alternative energy” concepts under study for commercial aviation and a new air taxi industry. Most will fail to prove technically feasible or obtain the funding required to successfully bring the ideas to market and production.
A few concepts are based on reality. EVE is one of them.
EVE is an air taxi concept floated by principal owner Embraer.
Embraer’s EVE urban air mobility vehicle. Credit: EVE.
During a media briefing last month, Johann Bordais, EVE’s CEO, said the Urban Air Mobility (UAM) concept for EVE is a spin-off from an idea Embraer had in 2017. EVE was later spun off, while Embraer retains a majority stake.
“We became independent because we understand that we need to be agile, and go faster because the air mobility revolution was happening already,” Bordais said. “We needed to get moving. We also needed to get some funds and that’s why we also had a SPAC and we merged with Zanite.” SPAC stands for Special Purpose Acquisition Company.
EVE went public on May 10, 2022. With added funding, EVE began production earlier this year of the prototype.
Bordais said Embraer’s 54 years of legacy sets EVE apart from other concepts.
“It’s about knowing what we’re talking about. It’s not about just having prototypes flying around the cities. It’s about the whole ecosystem,” he said. “It’s about also the know-how.”
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 42. Improving the learning curve
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 15, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of a new airliner program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in flight tests, we now look at the production phase.
Last week, we discussed why production costs vary over time and why they can be up to 500% higher for the first units than for units past 400 to 500 aircraft produced. Now we go deeper into the reasons behind this and what can be done to improve the situation.
Figure 1. The program plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Re-engining the Boeing 767, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 14, 2023, © Leeham News: We are looking at a re-engine of the 767, a move that Boeing is considering to avoid a production stop after 2027. The present 767 engines don’t pass emission regulations introduced by FAA, EASA, and other regulators for production and delivery beyond 2027.
We have described the history of the 767 and the key data of the different variants in last week’s article. Now, we look at what airframe modifications are necessary to house more efficient engines and what consequences these bring.
Summary:
- New, more environmentally friendly engines for the 767 mean changes to the landing gear and structures to house larger and heavier engines.
- For the payload capacity to stay the same a deeper grab in the 767-400 toolbox is necessary than just adopting the landing gear.
Collaboration is key with supply chain, says Airbus
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 12, 2023, © Leeham News: The aerospace supply chain still hasn’t fully recovered the COVID-19 pandemic. All aerospace manufacturers are affected, as are the supplier to the suppliers.
At the annual Aviation Forum last week in Hamburg, Germany, Airbus said collaboration is one of the keys to recovery.
Jurgen Westermeier. Credit: Airbus.
Jürgen Westermeier, the chief procurement officer (CPO) at Airbus, said “unlocking the power of collaboration” means “great things happen when we work together.
“This has been illustrated in the past, when we had to face a situation of crisis together. In the past, in the face of a crisis, collaboration has been key,” Westermeier said.
There have been first-hand a series of successive crises which radically reshaped the aerospace sector. “Be it in an unprecedented global pandemic, geopolitical events, the likes the world hasn’t seen in a long time, and a climate emergency that no one can ignore anymore. Several suppliers entered the COVID period with weak financials.”
In addition, the CPO said, there has been high inflation, increasing energy prices, rising labor costs, and bank interests that are putting the ability of certain categories of suppliers at risk. “Airbus developed over the years several collaborative tools designed to better manage the crisis together. First, the Supplier Financial Watchtower,” Westermeier said. “This allows Airbus to monitor the financial health of its supply chain and identify potential issues. We are then able to deep dive into specific situations to understand the risk at stake, and if necessary, co-develop a mitigation plan with the supplier concerned. Not only does this approach ensure we can support our supplier in securing a planned ramp-up, but it also allows us to develop a sense of community.”
Embraer’s C-390 builds momentum; civilian freighter pondered
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By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 11, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer’s flagship defense program, the KC/C-390 finally took off this year. Orders began rolling in, after a long drought and cancellations by the Brazilian government that cast doubt over the viability of the program. This month, an order for an undisclosed number of C-390s were announced with South Korea. Embraer is in contention for an order for around 80 transports from India.
Brazil, Portugal, Hungary, the Netherlands, Austria, and the Czech Republic have ordered the C-390. Some are in NATO configuration.
Embraer C-390 Millennium. Credit: Embraer.
The C-390 Millenium also comes in a tanker version, the KC-390, The twin-jet is about the size of a Boeing 737 dimensionally and a fuselage cross-width about the diameter of a Boeing 767. It is the Brazilian company’s largest aircraft. Its closest competitor is the Lockheed Martin C-130J.
The C-390 and the single-engine propeller trainer, the Super Tucano, are the defense unit’s to leading programs. In a media briefing last month, Bosco da Costa Jr, President, and CEO of Embraer Defense & Security, said the company developed more than 20 models of various types since Embraer was formed 54 years ago.
In 2017, Embraer and Boeing proposed a joint venture by which Embraer Commercial Aircraft (ECA) would divest from the Group into Boeing Brasil. Boeing would own 80% of the JV and Embraer would own 20%. A JV for the KC-390, with a 51%-49% in favor of Embraer would provide EMB with Boeing’s marketing heft to market the then-stalled sales of the tanker-transport. Both JVs were terminated by Boeing in April 2020 before the combination could be consummated. Since then, Embraer agreed with US defense contractor L3 Harris to help market the airplane.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 41. Production learning curve
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 08, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We are discussing the different phases of an airliner development program. After covering Conceptual, Preliminary, and Detailed design, the manufacturing of prototypes, and their roles in Flight Tests, we now look at Production.
Last week, we explained why aircraft projects often fail 100 to 200 aircraft into production. What’s not well understood is the effects of production learning on product cost.
Figure 1. The development plan for a new airliner. Source: Leeham Co.
Re-engining the Boeing 767
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By Bjorn Fehrm
December 7, 2023, © Leeham News: We wrote last week that Boeing is considering re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop after 2027. The 767 is still an interesting aircraft for companies flying cargo and for the US Air Force, which is taking delivery of the tanker version KC-46A for years to come.
The problem is that all the 767 versions are using engines from the 1970s (GE CF6, PW4000, RB211), and as the FAA has accepted the ICAO emission rules from 2017, the production of the 767 with these engines has to stop after 2027. As reported last week, Beoing is looking at re-engining the 767 to avoid a production stop.
We use our Aircraft Performance and Cost Model (APCM) to look at the different possible configurations with new engines and model their performance data and operating economics.
Summary:
- The Boeing 767 needs new engines if it shall be produced after 2027.
- While the engine candidate is clear, the rest of a re-engined 767 can be configured in several ways. We look at what different configurations bring in operational performance.
Boeing returns to PNAA
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Boeing and the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance have kissed and made up.
After a two-year boycott, Boeing returns this year as a sponsor to PNAA, a suppliers-oriented trade group, and to sponsor and provide speakers to its annual conference in February. Boeing abruptly withdrew from the organization and the conference in 2022, citing a sexual discrimination lawsuit that had been filed by one of its women employees against the then executive director, a male, and the male-dominated Board of Directors. However, PNAA’s staff was predominately women and women were represented on the Board. The lawsuit was settled for undisclosed terms.
Boeing’s stated reason for withdrawal was questioned by some familiar with the background. Additionally, there has long been an occasional tense relationship between PNAA and Boeing. Analysts and consultants who appeared as speakers or panelists long criticized Boeing for its Partnering for Success program, which some viewed as brow-beating suppliers into cutting prices.
Pontifications: Embraer sees easing in pilot shortage, wave of sales coming
By Scott Hamilton
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 5, 2023, © Leeham News: Embraer officials see the pilot shortage easing in 2025 or 2026.
Francisco Gomes Netos, CEO of the Embraer group, said during a media briefing last month that the “situation” is getting better. Boeing, in its latest 20-year forecast, reported that 649,000 pilots will be needed globally over the next 20 years.
With a wave of pilot retirements, especially in the US, coming in the next few years, the shortage and demand seem daunting.
“In our internal market intelligence, I would say that the situation should be much better in 2025 and 2026. We see the situation improving,” Gomes said.
The biggest impact of the pilot shortage was on the 50-seat regional jet, CFO Antonios Carlos Garcia said. The majors want 76-seat aircraft.
Orders for Embraer’s E-Jet E2 have been slow. Because the E175-E2 exceeds the weight limit in the labor contracts, known as Scope Clauses, this model isn’t sold in the US, the biggest market for the 76-seat aircraft, and for Embraer.
The E190-E2 is an “in-between” aircraft that isn’t selected by many customers. The largest of the family, the E195-E2, has a backlog of a few hundred aircraft. But Embraer hasn’t been winning orders of the magnitude Airbus and Boeing are winning.
Gomes believes the E2’s day is coming. “It’s coming, the wave to focus on our segment.”
Airbus: Global services sector to double by 2042
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By Gordon Smith
December 4, 2023, © Leeham News: If the last decade taught us anything, it’s just how challenging it is to make accurate forecasts. While this is true of almost all industries, few are as difficult to predict as aerospace. It can feel like a feat to quantify the immense number of variables involved, never mind establishing what they actually mean.
So credit where it is due to Airbus, which has published its latest Global Services Forecast (GSF) for the coming two decades.
The headlines are eye-catching. The European firm believes the value of the commercial aircraft services market will double by 2042 to $255bn. Driven by soaring traffic demand and technological developments, the sector will require millions more staff than it has today and thousands of new aircraft.
Summary
- The services market is supporting more than 24,000 aircraft globally this year, valued at approximately $130bn – up 46% on 2022 as the post-pandemic recovery reaches a crescendo
- This figure is due to reach $180bn by 2030 and $255bn by 2042, representing a compounded annual growth rate of 3.6%
- Aircraft maintenance will comprise 80% of the market by 2042, valued at $210bn, with ‘aircraft enhancement’ estimated at $28bn, and training and operations generating $17bn
- Connected aircraft is a key trend, with Airbus forecasting that more than 44,000 airplanes will form part of a ‘connectivity ecosystem’ by 2042, with significant passenger benefits and operational efficiencies