Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
One or Two hops cheapest for long flights?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 26, 2022, © Leeham News: There is a notion that it’s better to fly a long flight in two hops rather than one long flight. The idea is that the plane has to carry extra fuel to bring the fuel for the last bit of the long flight, increasing its drag due to weight.
So far, the theory. Is it also the case in practice? We use the Leeham airliner performance and cost model to find out.
LEVEL is an example of the long-haul low-cost operator we look at. Source: IAG.
Summary
- The widespread hypothesis of two shorter flights being more economical than a single long flight needed a check.
- When we check it with an operational cost model that considers all cash costs, we conclude the hypothesis does not apply to normal long-range flights.
Flight report for the Boeing B-29
By Scott Hamilton
May 24, 2022, © Leeham News: I’ve ridden in the Boeing B-17 and the Consolidated B-24 bombers. There’s the Douglas DC-3, which I had a chance to pilot, the Ford Tri Motor, the Convair 240, and the Douglas DC-7B that I’ve ridden in as well. I wasn’t about to pass up the chance to ride in the Boeing B-29 when I learned it would be here in Seattle at the Museum of Flight and a media seat was still available.
Boeing B-29 “Doc.” Source: Leeham News.
The B-29 was a World War II crash effort to build a long-range bomber with more range and payload than the B-17 or even the B-24. With a range of 3,250 statute miles, it compares with the B-17’s 2,000sm range and the B-24’s 1,540sm. The B-29 was fast for its day: a cruising speed of 220 mph vs 182 and 215 for the B-17 and B-24. Dimensionally, it was a much larger aircraft than the other planes.
And, of course, it was the B-29 that dropped the atomic bombs on Japan to end World War II.
“Doc,” the B-29 that visited Seattle last week, was built in March 1945 by what was then Boeing’s Wichita (KS) factory (now Spirit Aerosystems). Doc didn’t serve in combat. After it was built, it went to New York as a radar calibration airplane. After being retired by the Navy (yes, the Navy), the aircraft sat for 42 years in the desert before being acquired for restoration. It returned to flying status in 2016. Hundreds of thousands of volunteer hours and tangible and intangible costs equalling about $30m went into restoring the airplane. The full history may be found here.
Assessing the airline financial recovery around the globe
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
May 23, 2022, © Leeham News: A significant number of airlines started reporting their fiscal 2021 earnings. Most saw an improved financial performance, but still a far cry from the pre-Covid days.
The differences in financial performance depend on geography and airline business model. Some carriers saw a meaningful recovery, while others had a financial performance not very different from 2020. A few airlines also saw better profitability than before the Covid-19 pandemic.
LNA analyzes airlines’ earnings globally and compares them with their pre-Covid results.
Summary
- The Americas leading the revenue recovery, with a notable exception;
- Europe lagging behind the Americas;
- Asian carriers stuck in low gear;
- The peculiarity of cargo airlines.
Pontifications: Airbus delays for A220 tied to supply chain issues
By Scott Hamilton
May 23, 2022, © Leeham News: The delivery delays for the Airbus A320neo and Boeing 737 MAX get all the headlines. But Airbus also has delivery delays for the Airbus Canada A220.
There are at least three A220s missing cockpit installations on the ramp at the Mirabel Airport final assembly line with more coming off the FAL, LNA is told. The number of A220s with this traveled work at the Mobile (AL) FAL is not known. Some quality control issues at the Mobile plant, which is still in its learning curve phase, have been reported.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 20. Dimensioning the Fuel Cell system
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 20, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the principal parts of a Fuel Cell-based propulsion system. We need a fuel cell that converts hydrogen to electric power and then an inverter and electric motor that drives the fan, Figure 1.
The fuel cell system is the complicated and heavy part of this setup. Let’s look at how we size such a system.
Figure 1. The principal parts of a fuel cell propulsion system compared with other electric motor-based systems. Source: Leeham Co.
Impact of Russian Airspace Closure on the World’s longest flight
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
May 19, 2022, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at what the closure of Russian airspace would mean for a mid-European cargo airline. A cargo plane has a shorter range, and the difference in flight distance meant that the cost of transporting cargo from Far-East to West Europe increased considerably as cargo payload was reduced.
We now check what the Russian airspace closure means for the World’s longest flight, Singapore Airlines flight SQ23/SQ24 between New York and Singapore.
Summary
- The flight from New York to Singapore has changed the routing after the 24th of February. It now avoids Russian and Ukrainian airspace.
- It results in a longer flight but the cost increase shall not pose a profitability problem on this premium route.
Boeing B-29 “Doc” visits Seattle May 17-22
By Scott Hamilton
May 17, 2022, (c) Leeham News: A Boeing B-29 bomber, made famous in World War II, is here in Seattle May 17-22. Ground tours will be May 19-22. Rides will be the mornings of May 21-22. Times may be found here. The plane is at the Museum of Flight at Boeing Field.
Boeing B-29 “Doc” is visiting Boeing Field May 17-22. It will be open to the public May 19-22. Photo credit: Leeham News.
Start-up nears airport Aircraft Towing System tests
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By Scott Hamilton
May 16, 2022, © Leeham News: A start-up company is 60-90 days away from landing a contract with a US airport to install a prototype system that will pull airplanes around the field, eliminating taxiing with engines or tugs.
The ATS airport channel system. Source: ATS.
ATS Worldwide (for Aircraft Towing System) proposes a network of trench-like guides equipped with a flexible tow mechanism that captures the nose gear to tow airplanes from the regional jet to the Airbus A380. It’s all done with automation. No new equipment, other than a nose camera, is added to the airplane. This eliminates added weight and complexity, or the need for a Supplemental Type Certificate, proposed by Wheel Tug. No external tug, like Taxibot, takes the airplane to the end of the runway. This eliminates airfield conflicts, ATS said during the Aviation Week MRO Americas conference last month in Dallas.
But constructing a network of towing trenches from the gate, across the ramp, to the taxiways and the runways, presents its own challenges. Constructing the network won’t be inexpensive. Funding sources must be identified. The Federal Aviation Administration and other regulators must be convinced that the system will be safe. Regulatory standards must be prepared.
And the elephant in the room will be the reaction from unions whose ground handlers, wing walkers, etc., face losing jobs or fewer jobs.
The big advantages: eliminating the need for hundreds of tugs at an airport. Reduction in fuel required to taxi airplanes, major cost savings for the airlines. A reduction in emissions, a growing goal, especially in Europe and the USA. Finally, there can be lower headcounts by the airlines and airports, another cost savings.
Implementation, if all goes well, is years away. But a prototype system for proof-of-concept is expected to be activated at the Ardmore (OK) airport in 60-90 days. At least three major hub airports are reviewing proposals for initial demonstration projects as well, ATS says.
Pontifications: Boeing spending millions to retain engineers
May 16, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing is spending millions of dollars to retain engineers represented by the union, SPEEA.
It’s a reversal of efforts to trim SPEEA ranks through early buyouts and outsourcing and to address an aging workforce.
By Scott Hamilton
The proposed 2017 joint venture between Boeing and Embraer was meant to address the retirement crunch. But delays in clearing the JV by the European Union and then the Boeing 737 MAX crisis and the global COVID pandemic killed the deal. Boeing walked in April 2020, shortly after the pandemic began. Officials claimed that Embraer failed to meet all the terms and conditions outlined in the documentation. Embraer denied this, claiming Boeing’s self-inflicted MAX crisis was the reason Boeing walked. The companies are in arbitration over a $100m break-up fee. With the collapse of the JV, Boeing lost access to Embraer’s young (and less expensive) engineering workforce, the No. 1 reason to do the joint venture.
“There is a big push to keep people,” SPEEA tells LNA. “Boeing is using raises, restricted stock, and incentive bonuses to keep engineers. Our contracts called for $7m in out-of-sequence raises last year and the company spent $22m.”
Boeing is more than a year away from clearing its inventory of 737s and 787s. Until then, or until the end is definitively in sight, it’s highly unlikely that Boeing will launch a new airplane program. But there are five 7-Series airplane programs that engineers and others are working on: the certification of the 737-7 and 737-10 this year and next; the development of the 777-8F; and increasing the gross weight of the 787-9 and -10. Certification of the 777-9 is also outstanding. Nothing official has been said in detail, but changes to the airplane demanded by regulators may require engineering work.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 19. Fuel Cell propulsion systems
By Bjorn Fehrm
May 13, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we looked at advanced developments for hydrogen-burning gas turbines.
Now we look at the alternative hydrogen-based propulsion system, which uses a Fuel Cell to convert the energy in hydrogen to electric power that drives motors to spin propellers or fans, Figure 1.
Figure 1. The principal parts of a fuel cell propulsion system compared with other electric motor-based systems. Source: Leeham Co.