Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 3. Low hanging fruit.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 21, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Whatever is done in terms of new Sustainable technology for the aircraft, will have a limited influence on the amount of Greenhouse gases that Air Transport emits before 2050.
We will only get the new aircraft types into operation about 15 years before the deadline and with, on average, 100 to 200 aircraft per year. That’s 1,500 to 3,000 of the total of 25,000 aircraft that operate in our skies daily. It will not reduce our Greenhouse gas emissions significantly.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF, will help, but only when it’s available in quantity and to a reasonable cost. We can do things that have a much faster effect, and that’s how we manage our flights.
Figure 1. The US flights as seen on Flightradar24 yesterday. Source: Flightradar24.
Reducing one’s carbon footprint through flying choices
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Discussions about reducing commercial aviation’s carbon emissions have become more prominent over the last few years.
Many projects claim that electric(-hybrid) and hydrogen aircraft will be available in the not-too-distant future to make net-zero emissions flying a reality. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) will also drastically reduce lifecycle carbon emissions with only minor changes to the current aircraft.
The IATA committed to a net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050. While all those long-term aspirations are well, significant challenges remain.
LNA has highlighted that the low energy density of batteries means that electric aircraft can at best work on small planes for short flights. Developing a medium-haul hydrogen-powered aircraft will require numerous innovations that suggest an entry into service before 2035 is not realistic. The challenges in increasing SAFs supply affordably to meaningful levels are monumental.
We have pointed out that all the above are far into the future. To meaningfully reduce emissions over the next decade, the introduction of more fuel-efficient gas turbines and turboprops is the only realistic and impactful lever.
Another lever has not been mentioned so far to reduce one’s carbon emissions. Other than not flying at all, how we fly from A to B can have significantly different carbon footprint levels.
This series will highlight the different levels of carbon emissions depending on how one flies on different routes.
Summary
- Setting the problem out;
- Challenges in defining unit emissions;
- Factors outside one’s control;
- Introducing a few examples.
US 5G roll out ignores concerns for Air Transport safety
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 18, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Despite year-long protests from the World’s airlines and the FAA, the FCC (Federal Communications Commission) allows Verizon and ATT to roll out 5G base stations underneath the approach paths of landing aircraft in the US.
In 2020 the RTCA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) did tests that established the risk of 5G Base stations affecting the critical Radio Altimeters needed for bad weather landings as real.
After FAA issues a 2021 December 23 AD (Airworthiness Directive) about the danger, airlines must now decide what flights must be canceled during bad weather spells on affected airports.
Figure 1. The way the US 5G C-band base stations can affect a Radar Altimeter. Source: RTCA.
2022 Forecast: C919 EIS unlikely before 2023-24
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 17, 2022, © Leeham News: COMAC, the Chinese aerospace company developing the C919, suffered yet another setback last year.
It hoped to deliver the first aircraft, designed to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800/8, to China Eastern Airlines by year end. Not only didn’t this delivery take place, but the program is also only about 15% through the certification flight testing.
COMAC C919. Source: China Factor.
At this rate, certification, and delivery this year is questionable. LNA’s forecast for EIS is in 2023 or 2024.
COMAC’s other airplane, the regional jet ARJ21, landed its first order outside China (other than from lessor GECAS years ago).
Summary
- C919 is overweight, shortening range, and adversely affecting fuel economy.
- Commercial success of the C919 won’t be possible.
- ARJ21 lands first foreign operator, but it’s not an arm’s length deal.
Pontifications: COTS and the KC-46A Aircraft Production Systems
Part 1 in a Boeing series about the USAF refueling tanker
By the Leeham News Team
January 17, 2022, © Leeham News: COTS is an acronym meaning Commercial Off the Shelf. It’s often a requirement for certain types of aircraft to be used by the US Air Force.
The title is a bit misleading in that in most cases, there is no directly usable off-the-shelf product, but instead, a jumping-off point that saves a tremendous amount of development. In aircraft procurement, many things have been bought this way. The advantage to the Air Force is that they get a known flyable aircraft that is for the most part debugged and has an operational history that allows the Air Force to estimate the maintenance burden and training requirements. It shaves years off the acquisition process and can be a very cost-effective way to gain new capabilities.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 2. The problem to solve?
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 14, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Before we dig into the different alternatives we have for more Sustainable Air Transport, let’s look at the problem and its sources.
Figure 1 shows the emissions of CO2 per person since 1900 and the rise of the world temperature. The increase in world temperature changes the weather, with increased weather-related emergencies in recent years.
Figure 1. The increase in CO2 emission per capita and the rise of the world temperature from 1900 to 2018. Source: Wikipedia.
Air freight growth: one-hit wonder or long-term trend?
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
January 13, 2022, © Leeham News: COVID-19 has upended the freight world, with air delivery now becoming relatively economical versus the high premium they previously commanded over sea freight. While air freight yields on most trade lanes are 2-3x their pre-pandemic levels, sea freight yields are 8-10x their 2019 levels in lanes like Asia to North America and Asia to Europe.
Sea freight schedule reliability has fallen sharply over the past 18 months driven by a spectrum of port, labor, and container availability issues. Shippers are increasingly frustrated by the large and growing number of “blank sailings,” the industry’s term for canceled departures.
To offer customers backup options – and increase their value capture – ocean freight carriers are starting to buy their own aircraft. Maersk announced its purchase of two Boeing 777Fs in November, while CMA CGM Group said in December that it would order four Airbus A350Fs to complement its existing fleet of five Airbus A330Fs.
As the COVID crisis extends into its third year, will air freight demand prove sustainable at today’s levels? To what extent will capacity increase to match?
Summary
- Sea freight capacity will remain tight for the foreseeable future.
- New-build freighter availability is limited at present.
- Today’s air freight demand spike is unlikely to last beyond mid-decade.
Pontifications: Teaming with Lockheed Martin for the KC-Y tanker competition
Last in a Series
Jan. 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Sean O’Keefe retired from EADS/Airbus in 2014. Boeing won the re-bid contract for the US Air Force aerial refueling tanker in 2011. The third round of the tanker competitions was every bit as bitter as the second round, which Northrop Grumman/EADS won.
By Scott Hamilton
Boeing is in the process of producing 179 KC-46A tankers, with about half delivered. Beset by delays, technical issues, and cost overruns, Boeing nevertheless has the presumed advantage of being the incumbent supplier.
Lockheed Martin/Airbus will offer the A330-200-based MRTT tanker. Most have Rolls-Royce engines. The remainder has GE Aviation power plants. The LMXT, as the new tanker version is currently called, will be assembled in the US. If RR engines are chosen, these, too, will be assembled in the US, Lockheed says.
Although O’Keefe is no longer associated with Airbus and he is not a consultant to or otherwise advising Lockheed and Airbus, LNA asked him what he would advise if asked after benefitting from the Round 3 competition.
Forecast 2022: Embraer
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Embraer is the dominant regional jet aircraft supplier with a worldwide footprint and faces little competition to its products below 100 seats.
Between 100 to 150 seats, the situation is another after Bombardier “sold” its CSeries project to Airbus. Airbus’ might as aircraft OEM rekindled the CSeries as Airbus A220, and it’s now a vivid competitor to Embraer over 100 seats.
With a market it dominates and another where competition increases, we look at what’s in store for Embraer for 2022 as it hopes to exit the COVID pandemic for better times.
Embraer’s revised Turboprop. Source: Embraer.
Summary
- Embraer is a complete supplier with capable development, production, and worldwide support for its regional jets.
- Everything would be good had Bombardier, a player the size of Embraer, slugged it out with CSeries. The hand-over of the modern aircraft to Airbus changed the competitive landscape.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 1. A deeper look.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 7, 2022, ©. Leeham News: We finished a 34 article series before Christmas about the enormous work involved to get a new aircraft certified for passenger transport.
It was a background article series to the one we start now, a deeper series on what’s involved in designing air transport vehicles that are less polluting for our environment. We have seen a landslide of such projects in the last years, and from an experienced aircraft designer’s desk, most of these are doomed for failure.
Figure 1. The Embraer Energia concept aircraft. A credible Sustainable Air Transport research program. Source: Embraer.