Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 6. Energy consumption.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 11, 2022, ©. Leeham News: In a sister article, Part 6P. Energy consumption, the deeper discussion we use Leeham’s Aircraft Performance Model from our consulting practice to generate the aeronautical energy consumption for aircraft like Eviation’s Alice and Heart Aerospace’s ES-19.
This is the energy needed to combat the drag of the airframe during flight (Figure 1). We then add the losses in the chosen propulsion system to arrive at the energy drawn from the energy source.
Figure 1. Simplified force model for an aircraft. Source; Leeham Co.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F, Part 2
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 10, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing introduced the freighter version of the 777X last week, and we made a first article about how it stacks up against Airbus’ new freighter, the A350F. The Boeing freighter will be the market’s largest freighter when it enters the market in 2027, two years after the A350F.
We now use our performance model to fly the new freighters against the present Boeing 777 freighter, the 777F, to look at their operating economics.
Summary
- Both new freighters handsomely beat the 777F on operating economics.
- The race is much tighter between the 777-8F and A350F.
Airbus readies hydrogen-powered demo flights
Update, Feb. 21: Airbus announced today a press conference tomorrow in Toulouse.
By Scott Hamilton
One concept of where hydrogen tanks could be located.
Feb. 8, 2022, (c) Leeham News: Airbus plans to fly a hydrogen-fueled ZEROe demonstrator soon, with an announcement coming as early as this month.
Airbus’ drive to reduce emissions appears prioritized toward developing an H2-fueled airplane. While all it’s A-Series aircraft will be 100% compatible with Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) by 2030—they’re 50% compatible today—hydrogen is at the forefront of its research and development. Officials want to have an H2-powered airplane ready for service by 2035. This aircraft will almost certainly be a turboprop.
Amanda Simpson, vice president for research and technology of Airbus, said the company must have a demonstration project proving the feasibility of an H2-fueled airplane before full development can proceed. She told the audience at the annual conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance yesterday that an announcement could come within two weeks. In sideline remarks, she declined to say what type of aircraft will be used for the demo project.
HOTR: ULCCs Frontier, Spirit announce plans to merge
Feb. 7, 2022, © Leeham News: Frontier and Spirit airlines today announced plans to merge. The combination will create the USA’s fifth largest carrier and combine the two largest Ultra Low-Cost Carriers (ULCC) in the United States.
Shareholders of Frontier will own 51.5% of the new company, and seven of the 12 board members will be appointed by Frontier. The largest shareholder is Indigo Partners, whose chairman, Bill Franke, becomes chair of the combined airline. Indigo once was the largest shareholder in Spirit. Indigo sold its shareholdings and Franke resigned from the Spirit board when Indigo bought control of Frontier.
It hasn’t been decided what the brand of the new company will be.
Pontifications: KC-X aerial tanker competition becomes a pass-fail RFP
Part 4: The Boeing perspective
By Scott Hamilton
Feb. 7, 2022, © Leeham News: After Boeing lost to Northrop Grumman-EADS for the KC-X US Air Force tanker contract, Boeing filed a protest with the Government Accountability Office (GAO).
The Air Force, Boeing complained, gave Northrop extra credit for the larger A330 MRTT’s fuel capacity and range. This possibility had not been in the Request for Proposals. Boeing, therefore, felt its tanker, based on the 767-200ER airframe, was properly sized for the USAF requirements.
The GAO upheld Boeing’s protest. For the third time, the Air Force now had to issue an RFP and run another competition.
Northrop decided to sit this one out. But, as previously reported in the Sean O’Keefe series of the Airbus perspective, Airbus elected to bid again.
This time, the RFP was tightened. It took a Pass-Fail approach.
Forecast 2022: Sustainability
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 7, 2022, © Leeham News: The year that passed was when Sustainability broke through the walls of “I’m not convinced we have a problem” and “If so, what shall we do about it.”
The declarations ahead of, at, and after COP26 in Glasgow, United Nations 26’th climate conference, had many major states and organizations commit to targets for the reduction of Greenhouse gases by 2030 and 2050.
With this change in mind and traction, what can we expect to see in 2022 from the Air Transport industry?
Idea for Sustainable Air Transport, a hydrogen regional. Source: Sustainable Aero Lab.
Summary
- The years that passed were run-up years. Now the preparations shall lead to the first results.
- We summarize what we can expect to see during 2022.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 5. Fundamentals recap.
By Bjorn Fehrm
February 4, 2021, ©. Leeham News: We did a simple reality check on two high-profile ideas for Sustainable Air Transport last week, the Eviation Alice project and Heart Aerospace’s ES-19.
We now look at energy usage when performing Sustainable Air Transport flights, but it can be timely to recap some fundamentals of such flights before we discuss this.
Figure 1. A simplified aircraft force model. Source: Leeham Co.
The new Boeing freighter, 777-8F, versus Airbus’ A350F
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
February 3, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing launched the new large freighter, 777-8F, Monday with an order for 34 and options for 16 from Qatar Airways.
We made a comparison based on projected data in August 2021 of the 777-XF versus an A350 freighter, but now we have final data for both. We can now compare the 777-8F from Boeing with the A350F from Airbus. We also compare these with the present Boeing freighter, 777F.
The new freighters represent the largest freighters that will be in the market at the end of the decade, as Boeing’s 747-8F ends its production after the summer. The A350F starts deliveries during 2025, and the 777-8F joins in 2027.
We start with comparing freight capabilities, and then we fly them on a typical freight route, using our aircraft performance model.
Image: Boeing.
Summary
- The 777-8F has the largest volume and highest payload capability, making it the market’s largest freighter at the end of the decade.
- But despite the highest takeoff weight, it has the shortest range of the compared freighters.
Year-end 2021 Orders at Risk
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Feb. 1st, 2022, © Leeham News: After a large number of cancellations, Boeing accumulated a healthy number of 737 MAX orders in 2021. Some came through positive ASC 606 adjustments on Boeing Commercial Airplanes’ website. The adjustments resulted from Boeing agreeing on new terms on existing deals or finding new customers for tails flagged as ASC 606.
Airbus also accumulated a healthy number of A320neo family orders, effectively selling out the production line through the middle of this decade. Both OEMs struggled with their twin-aisle order books due to the lingering effects of the pandemic and Boeing’s Dreamliner production problems. Freighter orders were a bright spot for Boeing.
However, portions of both OEM’s order books became shakier. It means there is a material probability some orders won’t translate into deliveries. Most were the result of airlines encountering financial difficulties, but some were related to contractual disputes. Boeing flags such orders as subject to an ASC 606 adjustment.
Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule similar to the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report.
LNA analyzed in July 2020, November 2020, and August 2020, Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We update this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs. The above links explain our methodology and its differences with Boeing’s ASC 606 adjustments.
Summary
- Lingering order book cleanup for older programs;
- A riskier region for single-aisle orders;
- Small and large twin-aisle order book weaknesses;
- A more significant impact on twin-aisle market shares.
CFM’s Open Fan targets mid-2030s for entry into service
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By Scott Hamilton
CFM RISE Open Fan. Credit: CFM.
Feb. 1, 2020, © Leeham News: GE Aviation appears confident the CFM open rotor engine—a concept that was flight tested back in the 1980s—is an engine whose time has come.
But it won’t be ready when the Next Boeing Airplane (NBA) is likely to be launched. Based on market intelligence, Boeing may launch its new airplane program in 2023 or 2024, for entry into service by the end of the decade. CFM’s open rotor, which it calls open fan, won’t be ready for application to an airliner until later in the 2030 decade.
Open rotors or open fans have the potential to be about 20% more fuel-efficient than today’s Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan or CFM’s LEAP engine. (GE is a 50% partner with Safran Aircraft in CFM.) The reduced fuel consumption results in a corresponding reduction in emissions. GE’s research and development program is called RISE, for Revolutionary Innovation for Sustainable Engines.