Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing’s 737 North Line and the Everett factory: in transition now June 9, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
Boeing was “hungry” for deal, says Allegiant CEO
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Allegiant Airlines CEO Maury Gallagher said Boeing was “hungry” and the carrier “got a good deal all the way around” with its first order from the manufacturer.
In an interview with LNA yesterday, Gallagher confirmed that early delivery positions from Boeing were also important in placing an order for 30 737-7 and 20 737-8-200 MAXes. Deliveries begin in 2023 and continue through 2025.
Allegiant currently is exclusively operating Airbus A319ceos and A320ceos. Airbus didn’t have enough delivery slots for the A220-300 to cover the smaller end of Allegiant’s needs. Additionally, the A220-300 hasn’t yet been certified for its maximum potential capacity of 160 passengers. Nor was Airbus willing to provide any assurances that a larger A220-500 would be launched. The A220-300 also has a shorter time to maintenance checks than the 737, reflecting the new aircraft type vs the 737-7’s derivative status.
There were no slots for the larger A320neo family until 2026-2038, Gallagher said.
Fleet transition support from Boeing also was a key element of the order, which includes options for 50 more airplanes.
Estimating the A330neo replacement market
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 6, 2022, © Leeham News: Boeing 787 Dreamliner deliveries have been halted for 15 months, except for about a dozen early last year. There is still no clarity on when deliveries will resume, other than it may be in April.
When Boeing encountered severe Dreamliner delays in 2008, Airbus capitalized with a surge in A330ceo orders and deliveries. While long-haul traffic is far less buoyant than in the aftermath of the financial crisis, sustainability concerns mean that airlines will need to renew their twin-aisle fleets in future years.
Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the A330neo program faced slow sales. With a significant portion of its order book with airlines in precarious financial conditions, Airbus had to slow production on the A330 line to two per month last year.
To LNA’s surprise, Airbus announced plans to increase A330 production to three per month later this year. The recent A330neo orders by Condor and ITA Airways could give Airbus confidence it can gather more fleet replacement orders next year.
In light of the Dreamliner production problems, LNA assesses the size of the replacement market for the A330neo to capitalize on Boeing’s production problems.
Summary
- Estimating the addressable replacement market;
- Ruling out some potential customers;
- Highlighting possible but unlikely customers;
- A reduced list for plausible near-term orders;
- Program sales potential.
HOTR: Boeing works on HGW 787-10—and the 787-9
Jan. 5, 2022, © Leeham News: In his first interview since becoming CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, Stan Deal told The Seattle Times that development of a High Gross Weight (HGW) version of the 787-10 is underway.
“[Deal] also revealed that Boeing is currently designing a new ‘high gross weight’ version of the largest Dreamliner, the 787-10, bumping up its payload and range to make it more competitive against the Airbus A350-900.”
But LNA learned exclusively that Boeing also is developing an HGW version of the 787-9.
Airbus critics reach low blow in forthcoming KC-Y competition
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
Jan. 4, 2022, © Leeham News: The US Air Force KC-Y tanker competition hasn’t even started but Boeing partisans already have the knives out.
For at least the fourth time, an OpEd appeared attacking Airbus for illegal subsidies. For good measure, the writer also pointed to Airbus’ misdeeds in its bribery scandal and other misadventures. All this in what increasingly appears to be the opening shots in a campaign to politicize the coming KC-Y Bridge Tanker procurement.
Once more, Boeing will be pitted against Airbus and the KC-46A against the A330 MRTT. This time, Airbus partnered with Lockheed Martin to take on Boeing. The latest column hit the Internet on Christmas Eve. This time, a Congressional staffer called on Airbus to be “Grounded” in the KC-Y competition.
This column was one of the most irresponsible commentaries seen so far. And this is saying something.
Pontifications: Assessing the advantages Boeing, Lockheed Martin-Airbus have in KC-Y tanker competition
Fourth in a Series
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 3, 2022, © Leeham News: As the US Air Forces gears up to solicit bids for its KC-Y aerial refueling “bridge tanker” competition, Boeing is now the incumbent tanker supplier.
Having won the KC-X competition against Airbus, Boeing is supplying a total of 179 tankers based on the 767-200ER. The KC-46A, however, has been plagued with problems, delays, and cost overruns.
As the incumbent, Boeing would seem to have an advantage in the KC-Y competition. But on the other hand, the problems that Boeing has had in technical compliance categories, failures, and delivery delays, and foreign object debris issues, could work against it.
Sean O’Keefe was the president of EADS North America, Airbus’ parent when Boeing won the KC-X contract. He also worked for the government as the NASA administrator and on The Hill. He was friends with Bob Gates, the Secretary of Defense during parts of the Bush 43 and Obama administrations. This gives him a special insight from government and industry perspectives to weigh the advantages and disadvantages Boeing faces in the anticipated KC-Y contest that will likely pit the incumbent against the Lockheed Martin-Airbus team that will once again offer the A330-200-based tanker called the LMXT.
Forecast 2022: Airbus
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 3, 2022, © Leeham News: When the COVID-19 Pandemic started, it was tough to predict its impact on world air travel and how long the downturn would last.
The aircraft OEMs are at the top of a supplier pyramid of hundreds of companies and millions of parts. The prediction of airliner output at the end of this chain is critical for all, but most for suppliers. The suppliers have strained their liquidity to expand the production at the demand of the OEM.
A downturn in deliveries means less money, which forces sensitive suppliers into a liquidity crisis. Brake moderately, and the suppliers can handle it. Brake hard, and they can’t, or brake a bit and then harder, and it’s as bad.
Airbus managed the reductions well, and with an intact supplier chain, 2022 will be about how hard to step on the throttle as the Pandemic isn’t done yet.
Summary
- With a competitive product range and an intact supplier base, 2021 is about the correct level of increase in deliveries, with the Pandemic a bigger worry than the main competition.
- With Airbus’ in perhaps its relative strongest position ever, how much this shifts the market is more a supply issue than anything else.
Air Wars is now available via Barnes and Noble
Dec. 29, 2021: Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, is now available in paperback via Barnes and Noble. It is also available via Amazon in paperback and eBook.
Air Wars is by LNA’s Scott Hamilton. It covers 35 years of the global sales and product strategy between Airbus and Boeing. John Leahy, who retired in January 2018, led Airbus’ sales teams in the US and globally for most of his 33 years at Airbus. The book covers his successes and failures, campaigns against Boeing and gets both sides of these campaigns and product strategies from key people like Leahy, Tom Enders, Kiran Rao, Tom Williams and Leahy’s successor, Christian Scherer at Airbus; and Ray Conner, Jim Albaugh, Scott Carson, Toby Bright and John Feren from Boeing. Industry players like Steven Udvar-Hazy and John Plueger are also interviewed.
Merry Christmas and Happy New Year
Barring breaking news of importance, your LNA team is taking the holidays off. LNA resumes Jan. 3.
“Air Wars” tops Puget Sound Business Journal Christmas List of Books
Air Wars is available here.
Dec. 24, 2021, (c) Leeham News: The those late shoppers looking for last-minute gifts, the Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle area) on Tuesday listed 11 aerospace books for the aviation geeks. Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing was at the top of the list. Air Wars is by LNA’s Scott Hamilton. It was published in August.
Christmas may be almost over, but the PSBJ gives plenty of options for post-holiday reading nevertheless.
“Air Wars” makes Top 10 book list of Royal Aeronautical Society
Dec. 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Air Wars, The Global Combat Between Airbus and Boeing, by LNA’s Scott Hamilton, yesterday was placed on the Top 10 Aerospace book choices for Christmas 2021 by the Royal Aeronautical Society. The Society is one of the world’s most prestigious aerospace organizations.
While second in the listing, the Society doesn’t rank the books.
Air Wars is currently rated No. 1 of the 15 Best New Aerospace eBooks To Read In 2022 by Book Authority.
The book is available here.