Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
- RTX Q1 2025 Earnings: GTF Talk Takes A Back Seat To Tariffs April 22, 2025
BDS: Another problem for Boeing
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By the Leeham News Team
July 24, 2023, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co’s 2Q2023 earnings call is Wednesday and the company continues to push uphill in its path for full financial recovery.
Last week, we examined Boeing’s challenges this Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA). This week we look at Boeing’s Defense unit, Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS). BDS is often overshadowed by BCA’s issues. But BDS has a recent track record of negative margins and negative cash flows.
Fixed priced contracts Boeing won proved to be underbid. BDS has taken a stream of big write-offs that don’t seem to have an end in sight.
This is an excerpt from the 2018 Boeing Company (BA) financial statements (edited for brevity):
Pontifications: NASA pulls the plug on electric airplanes
Some odds and ends after three weeks on the road.
- NASA pulls the plug on electric airplane research.
- NASA and Boeing’s Transonic Truss Brace Wing contract.
- Engines and the TTBW.
July 18, 2023, © Leeham News: When NASA gives up on a project, it’s time for others to take notice.
By Scott Hamilton
The agency is best known for space travel. But it funds and undertakes research and development for aeronautics, including commercial aviation. NASA, after all, is the acronym for National Aeronautics and Space Administration. Boeing, and Airbus, benefitted from NASA research in the past. NASA currently is working with Boeing on the transonic truss brace wing concept (TTBW) that could redefine how airplanes are designed and look as early as the end of this decade.
So, what has NASA abandoned? Late last month, the agency pulled the plug on the X-57 electric airplane before the first flight. NASA concluded that the electric and battery technology for the X-57, a small airplane, is too dangerous. NASA wouldn’t even authorize test flights.
It’s worth noting that LNA’s Bjorn Fehrm, an aerospace engineer, called bullshit on electric airplanes in his first of a series of articles way back on June 30, 2017. Billions of dollars have funded some 200 companies pursuing electric airplanes. This is money that could have been invested in expanding production of Sustainable Aviation Fuel, the leading alternative of alternative energy projects.
The current, continued frenzy over alternative energy vehicles is like the 1990s dot com frenzy. And just as the dot com boom went bust, the day is coming soon when the alternative energy book will go bust, too.
Analysis: Boeing’s BCA problem
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By the Leeham News Team
July 17, 2023, © Leeham News: The Boeing Co. (BA) reports its second quarter earnings next week. The company continues to struggle with challenges, mostly but not entirely at Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA). BA has posted four consecutive years of financial losses, dating back to 2019.
Beset by issues indigenous to them, the pandemic exacerbated an already difficult situation. With a net debt load of over $40bn and annual interest payments hovering around the $2.5bn mark, it will be difficult for BA to regain financial health if their core business does not produce positive results.
LNA looks at the BCA division, how it is crucial to the long-term success of the company and the correlation it plays in regard to company profitability.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 21. Changed flight profiles
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 14, 2023, ©. Leeham News: Developments in engines and airframe technologies require that the aircraft are flown differently to maximize the benefits.
We start by locking what changes in parasitic and induced drag mean for how airliners fly.
Figure 1. A Truss Braced Wing airliner shall fly higher. Source: Boeing.
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 20. Efficient flying
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 7, 2023, ©. Leeham News: We explore different technologies in the series that can make our next-generation airliners more efficient and, thus, less polluting.
We have discussed developments of engine and airframe technologies, such as Turbofans versus Open Rotors and different airframe configurations to minimize drag and, thus, energy consumption.
When utilizing these developments to increase efficiency we must fly the aircraft in a different way depending on the technology.
And how we fly the aircraft is not only influenced by the factors we have discussed. We must consider factors at the airplane level, at the airliner operational level, and finally, at the airline fleet level.
Figure 1. The NMA concepts included dual aisle airliners. Source: Leeham Co.
Machinists at Spirit vote to end strike; will return to work on July 5
Machinists Union members in Wichita, KS, wait in line to vote on a second contract offer from Spirit AeroSystems Thursday. The offer was approved with a 63% yes vote. Spirit will resume production of critical Boeing aircraft components on July 5./International Association of Machinists photo
By Bryan Corliss
June 30, 2023, © Leeham News – Machinists Union members working for Spirit AeroSystems in Wichita, KS, will return to work on July 5, after ratifying a new four-year contract with the company.
Some 63% of Local 839 members voted in favor of the contract on Thursday, union officials said. Spirit’s first offer was rejected by 79% of union members voting.
“This membership vote by the majority of 63% is a move in the right direction for our local,” said Cornell Beard, the president of IAM District 70, the parent organization of Local 839. “Let’s work hard to set ourselves up for the big win in four years too.”
In a statement, Spirit leadership welcomed the yes vote, and said they would “closely coordinate” with suppliers and customers as the company restarts production.
Workers will start today preparing for the production restart after the Fourth of July holiday, the company said. The plant has been closed since June 22, the day after Local 839 members rejected the first offer.
- Strike closes plant for less than two weeks
- Workers get 9.5% raise this year, plus bonus
- Second offer ‘what we worked for’
Bjorn’s Corner: New aircraft technologies. Part 19. Supersonic drag
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 30, 2023, ©. Leeham News: In our discussions about the drag of an airliner, we now cover the most complex drag type, Wave drag, or the drag created when the air goes from subsonic to supersonic flow.
We will focus on the physical understanding of what’s happening as the math behind the drag calculation is complex.
Figure 1. The Concord is designed for low Wave drag. Source: BAC and Aerospatiale.
Pontifications: A330neo, still struggling, nears 300 sales
By Scott Hamilton
June 27, 2023, © Leeham News: Airbus inked a memorandum of understanding with lessor Avolon for 20 A330-900s at last week’s Paris Air Show. When converted to a firm contract, this will bring the -900 order book to 299. Another 12 of the short, longer-range A330-800 make the total 309.
This compares with 664 A330-200s, 784 A330-300s and 38 A330-200Fs. The A330ceo is one of Airbus’ best-setting widebody airliners. The entire A330ceo and neo families are Airbus’ best-selling widebody, followed by the A350 family. The original A300/A310 family is third.
However, the A330neo has struggled in the market. First offered in 2014, it was the last of the new generation twin aisle airplanes up to that point. Boeing’s 787 and the A350 preceded it. Through May, 2,096 gross orders were placed for the 787. Nearly 600 remain in the backlog.
Why hasn’t the A330neo done better? In an interview with LNA at the air show, Christian Scherer, Airbus’ chief commercial officer, said there were two factors.
Analysis: What went wrong in Wichita for Spirit and IAM
Striking members of Machinists Union Local Lodge 839 outside the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kans./Photo by The Wichita Eagle
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By Bryan Corliss
UPDATE: The two sides will continue talks with a federal mediator on Monday. In a statement, Spirit AeroSystems CEO Tom Gentile said the negotiating teams “have been working hard and making good progress.”
“We will continue discussions this week and remain committed to a timely resolution on a fair and competitive contract that addresses the priorities of our employees and other stakeholders,” he said.
Local 839 negotiators told their members that “with the mediator’s help, we are progressing toward getting another offer to the membership for consideration.”
June 26, 2023, © Leeham News – Strikers in Wichita broiled under a hot summer sun this weekend, as the International Association of Machinists’ strike against Spirit AeroSystems got under way.
The good news, for everyone who’s watching in the North American aerospace industry, is that the two sides resumed talks Saturday, with the help of a U.S. federal mediator.
This walk-out caught a lot of us by surprise. Insiders I talked with before the vote didn’t expect a strike. Equity analysts confidently projected the risk of strike as “very low.” Spirit itself must have been confident, because it sent much of its senior leadership team to Paris for the air show.
So what went wrong? Clearly both Spirit management and the union’s negotiating team misread the mood, and badly.
We took a deep dive into what workers are saying on social media about the contract. As we’ve noted in the past, social media posts aren’t the same as scientific surveys, but they do give some insight into the mood in Wichita.
And what they reveal is that there was a lot of frustration around some specific issues, which was exacerbated by the fact that IAM Local Lodge 839 had been locked into its recently expired contract for 13 years, during which pay and benefits stayed the same inside the factory, while literally the whole world changed outside it.
- Workers didn’t like many contract specifics
- No way to predict how long strike will last
Spirit AeroSystems and Machinists Union return to negotiations Saturday
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By Bryan Corliss
June 23, 2023, © Leeham News — Negotiators for Spirit AerosSystems and International Association of Machinists Local Lodge 839 will resume negotiations Saturday, in hopes of reaching an agreement that would resolve a strike set to begin just after midnight tonight.
A Wichita Eagle photo of orange security fencing up around the Spirit AeroSystems plant in Wichita, Kan.
The meetings, which will include a federal mediator, will start about 10 hours after the walkout begins.
The strike, involving some 6,000 union-represented hourly workers at Spirit’s Wichita plant, threatens significant disruption to the wider aerospace industry — particularly at Boeing. The Wichita plant produces 70% of 737 aerostructures, along with the forward sections of all Boeing commercial jets.
It comes after workers rejected a proposed four-year deal on Wednesday, with 79% voting no and 85% voting to strike.
- Company: Two sides have been talking
- Worker: ‘Feathers on a dog don’t make it a chicken’