Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Boeing’s Next New Airplane
Dec. 29, 2020, © Leeham News: As Boeing works to return the 737 MAX to service and clear its inventory of ~450 airplanes, it must look to the future.
CEO David Calhoun all but killed the New Midmarket Airplane when he took over from Dennis Muilenburg in January. A full product strategy review would be undertaken, he said.
Boeing always looks at alternatives. In addition to the twin-aisle NMA, Boeing also had a single-aisle airplane under study.
In this episode of 10 Minutes About, LNA discusses what Boeing’s Next New Airplane should be.
Boeing NMA concept, by Leeham News.
Podcast: 10 Minutes About the Boeing 777X777X, Vincent Valery
Dec. 28, 2020, (c) Leeham News: Today LNA discusses 10 Minutes About the Boeing 777X.
Something that should have caught Boeing’s attention at the time of the 777X launch was the lack of interest from two key customer groups: the 777-300ER launch operator, Air France, and US airlines. The lack of orders from such airlines was perhaps a sign of a market smaller than what Boeing would have envisioned.
The discussion today looks at the program status and whether Boeing might cancel it. Scott Hamilton is joined by Vincent Valery, a writer and financial analyst for LNA.
Boeing rendering.
Boeing should build 757 replacement in Washington
Commentary
Dec. 22, 2020, © Leeham News: If you get a chance over the next few weeks – in between binge-watching The Queen’s Gambit, putting up the 79 extra feet of Christmas lights you ordered this year and figuring out how to buy surprise Christmas gifts for your spouse when you have a joint Amazon account – you should take 90 minutes to watch this video from our friends at the International Association of Machinists District Lodge 751.
By Bryan Corliss
The Machinists on Dec. 8 hosted (on Zoom, of course) a high-level panel discussion about the state of the aerospace industry and Washington state’s role in it, featuring a whole bunch of Brand-Name People Who are Smarter Than Me(c).
They shared their insights for those of us coffee-drinkers who are trying to read the tea leaves to divine what Boeing’s next moves should be as it tries to get back on its feet – and what the implications are for its home state.
The takeaway:
The problems for Boeing are obvious, and the solutions are pretty clear – but doing the smart thing would require a major cultural shift from an executive team that’s locked into a 1990s vision of how business gets done.
- Boeing needs a 757 replacement this decade
- It should get built in Washington state
- There are concrete – and audacious – steps for the state to take
- Can GE alum Calhoun change Boeing’s GE culture?
Buzz about Boeing’s next new airplane returned this month to making a 757 replacement. Boeing photo.
Senate report reveals FAA retaliation, hostile culture
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Dec. 21, 2020, © Leeham News: The US Senate Commerce, Science and Transportation Committee Friday issued a damning report taking Boeing and the Federal Aviation Administration to task.
A 20-month investigation began in the wake of the two Boeing 737 MAX crashes in October 2018 and March 2019.
The report concluded Boeing inappropriately coached the FAA pilots during recertification simulator training to test fixes to the now-infamous MCAS system.
Details were widely reported last week.
More troubling is the larger picture painted by the Committee of an FAA for years ignoring several US airlines’ safety violations and attempts by FAA inspectors to enforce safety regulations.
Whistleblowers were subject to retaliation, Committee investigators found. The FAA and its parent agency, the Department of Transportation, refused to make FAA employees available for interviews and stonewalled when documents were requested.
The bigger picture of an agency that protects airlines more than the public raises questions of a culture that favors cozy relationships with airlines. Media reports focused on the Boeing-FAA relationship and not the larger issues.
Summary
- Restoring confidence in FAA certification with other regulators.
- US Congress crafts FAA reform bill.
- 777X is next up
- The full report is here: CST FAA Aviation Safety Oversight Report
The A350, Part 1: Intro and A350-800
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Dec. 17, 2020, © Leeham News: After running a series on the Dreamliner, LNA will now start a series on Airbus’ latest-generation twin-aisle aircraft, the A350. Airbus should deliver its 400th A350 this month.
After a delayed ramp-up to 10 units per month, Airbus had to cut the A350 production rate to five per month after the COVID-19 pandemic. The European OEM might have to follow Boeing’s footsteps and reduce twin-aisle production rates further.
The A350 program has an official backlog of 532 orders: 415 for the -900 and 117 for -1000. Once passenger traffic recovers, Airbus should ramp production back up of its best-selling twin-aisle aircraft.
Despite its success, the A350 program wasn’t without hiccups. There were several and sizable iterations before Airbus finalized the A350 platform, and the -800 variant is non-existent but not officially canceled.
Summary
- A few iterations before launch;
- Development without significant issues;
- An in-favor aircraft family;
- The aborted A350-800.
HOTR: Narrowbody delivery recovery in 2025
By the Leeham News Team
Dec. 15, 2020, © Leeham News: “We do not expect Airbus or Boeing to get back to planned narrowbody deliveries (adjust for MAX grounding) before 2025, with widebody deliveries taking much longer.”
That’s the view of Bernstein Research in a note published Dec. 14. It is a pessimistic view that belies the hopes of others in the industry.
Boeing officials said they hope to deliver about half the ~450 stored MAXes in 2021. Most of the remaining stored aircraft will deliver in 2022. There will be some spillover into 2023, Boeing said.
On this basis, Bernstein’s forecast suggests Boeing will deliver about 208 new-production MAXes in 2021. This computes to a production rate of 17/mo. The current rate is 6/mo, according to a Wall Street analyst. A rate break to 10/mo is expected soon.
In 2022, the Bernstein data suggests Boeing will deliver about 378 new-production MAXes. This is a production rate of about 31/mo. Boeing said it hopes to be at rate 31 in “early 2022.”
Boeing, SPEEA and Union Reamalgamation
Editor’s Note: This is another in a series of articles examining the future of Boeing, its unions and Washington state. There first article appeared here. The second appeared here.
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By the Leeham News Team
Introduction
Dec. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: In a past element of this series, LNA looked at a potential path forward for IAM 751 Machinists District members to become a profit center as opposed to a pure cost to Boeing.
The Prime Directive is for Boeing to make money.
Boeing must be profitable. This is its mission for shareholders, employees, the supply chain, new development, for Washington and other states and for the US economy.
Boeing must then by definition divorce itself from unnecessary costs. Boeing defines SPEEA as an unnecessary cost. SPEEA is in the same position as the IAM in that it must change this reality. The path forward would be a huge lift, it involves some un-union-like thinking in a couple of areas.
Summary:
- Trust, need and profitability.
- Reinventing technicians.
- A strong case for SPEEA.
Pontifications: Lessons of the Titans: Book review
By Scott Hamilton
Dec. 14, 2020, © Leeham News: If you want a good business book to read over the Christmas holidays, get Lessons from the Titans by three analysts at the independent Melius Research Co.
The subtitle, a mouthful, aptly describes the book: “What companies in the new economy can learn from the great industrial giants to Drive Sustainable Success.”
Yes, I know. The first reaction to a “business book” is, how boring. Not so, this one.
The analysts are Scott Davis, Carter Copeland and Rob Wertheimer. They provide first-hand and often insider accounts of their coverage of some of the USA’s most significant industrial companies.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 17. Hydrogen airliner program
By Bjorn Fehrm
December 11, 2020, ©. Leeham News: We use this Corner to define the time table for our hydrogen airliner program and for what areas we need to conduct risk-reducing research before we embark on an actual design.
As we said in last week’s Corner, we aim to develop a hydrogen airliner for the heart of the domestic market after the COVID-19 Pandemic. It’s a 160 to 180 seat single-aisle turbofan driven airliner, using liquid hydrogen as the fuel.
Figure 1. Airbus ZEROe hydrogen-fueled airliner concepts. Source: Airbus.
The 717 and A220, Part 2: Operational economics comparison
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
December 10, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, we introduced the Boeing 717 and its closest replacement size-wise, the Airbus A220-100. Delta, a major 717 customer, is accelerating the replacement of the 717 with the A220-100 under the pressure of the COVID19 pandemic.
We use our performance model to understand why. What are the gains when going from the 717 to an A220-100?
Delta Airlines Boeing 717-2BD landing at LaGuardia. Source: Wikipedia.
Summary
- The 717 version of the DC-9 architecture produced a rugged and well-liked short-haul airliner. It’s five abreast cabin is preferred over the six-abreast Boeing 737 and Airbus A320.
- It’s size-wise in the same 115 seat bracket as the 15 years younger Airbus A220-100. It’s 40 years old airframe architecture holds up well compared to the modern A220.
- The engines of the two are also 15 years apart. But the Rolls-Royce BR715 of the 717 was originally designed to fly on fast business jets, necessitating a low by-pass ratio design. This is a handicap when used on lower speed airliners. It shows against the high bypass ratio Pratt & Whitney PW1500G of the A220.