Rolls-Royce, Airbus Milestone: Aviation Week reports that the two companies reached a design milestone for the engine on the A350-1000.
C919 nearing ‘critical’ stage: Flight Global reports that the COMAC C919, China’s bid to challenge Airbus and Boeing in the 150-210 seat sector, is nearing a critical design stage. COMAC also discusses some of the issues with its ARJ21 in the article.
First Flight Videos: No introductions needed.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWtPA8v-xeQ&w=560&h=315]
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y5SBzdG3upw&w=420&h=315]
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4HZRvwkiwk&w=420&h=315]
Posted on September 26, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
The next decade will see an extraordinary number of new and derivative airplanes entering service, beginning next year with the Boeing 787-9 and ending in 2022 with what we believe will be a replacement for the Airbus A330.
Bombardier’s CS100 is currently planned to enter service in around September next year, 12 months after its first flight on September 16, 2013, but we think EIS will slip to early 2015. Bombardier seems to be laying the groundwork for this in statements that it will reassess the EIS date in a few months.
Beginning with the 787-9, there is a steady stream of EIS dates–and a couple of end-production dates of current generation airplanes.
This chart captures the airplanes and their dates. Most dates are based on firm announcements from the OEMs, but we’ve adjusted some based on market intelligence and our own estimates.
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The arrows to certain points within years are not necessarily representative of specific timelines within that year. OEMs generally are not too specific about and EIS date, preferring to say “first half” or “second half” or some derivative of ambiguity. The only specific that we’re aware of is Boeing’s revised EIS of the 737 MAX, from 4Q2017 to July 2017. Although the Ascend data base is quite specific, we’ve not attempted to be highly specific in this chart. (Have we been specific enough about all this?)
Readers will note that we have the ARJ21 arrow going to a question mark. This airplane is already seven years late, and supposedly it’s going to enter service next year, but we aren’t banking on this at all. COMAC/AVIC, producer of the ARJ21, has a dismal record of meeting target dates. Accordingly, although COMAC now says the EIS for the C919 is 2017, we’ve got this in 2018–and even this is likely generous.
Airbus forecast: Airbus announced its 20 year forecast update today in London (Boeing’s update came in advance of the Paris Air Show in July). Here are links to the update:
Airbus summary and news release
Global Market Forecast video and document.
Overall demand increased, according to the forecast. The demand for the Very Large Aircraft sector remains flat at 1,300, a figure which generally has varied very little since Airbus first began forecasting this sector. Boeing’s forecast is sharply lower. We basically agree with Boeing’s number but believe Airbus will have the lion’s share of this sector.
Boeing does not categorize its 406-seat 777-9X as a VLA even though at this capacity it falls within the sector’s long-standing definition of >400 seats.
Boeing in Washington State: KUOW, one of the public radio stations here in the Seattle area, has an, in-depth report on Boeing in Washington State and the challenges the state has in keeping Boeing here. The text is here, along with the broadcast.
Michel Merluzeau, of Kirkland (WA’s) G2 Solutions consultcy, says the center of aerospace has shifted to the US Southeast from Washington State. We’re not sure the “center” has shifted, yet, but it’s certainly tilting that direction.
Putting out a fire: With a hat-tip to JC Hall of Esterline for bringing this to our attention, this video clip needs no explanation.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tfdJeB9k5DY&w=560&h=315]
Rolls-Royce: Aviation Week has this story about the future of Rolls-Royce in commercial aviation now that its joint venture with Pratt & Whitney (International Aero Engines) is over.
Classic Airliners: Loads of photos here.
Posted on September 24, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Next phase for CSeries: Canada’s Financial Post has a report on how the Bombardier CSeries, powered by the Pratt & Whitney Geared Turbo Fan engine, is “ushering” in a new era of quiet flight.
As we noted in a post last Monday, the engines are key to the success of the CSeries, given the promised sharply lower noise profile and fuel burn.
Speaking of noise, a noisy crowd appeared before a town hall meeting in Toronto where Porter Airlines’ proposal to fly the CSeries into the downtown Toronto City Airport was the topic. The airport, located in the lake a few hundred yards off the shoreline, is highly noise sensitive. Porter placed a conditional order for up to 30 CS100s for operation out of the airport, which is currently restricted to turbo-props for commercial service. The low noise promises for the CSeries is key to Porter’s conditional order, which will be firmed only if a tripartite governmental agreement lifts the jet ban.
Aviation Week, meanwhile, has this report about the first flight and the challenges facing the flight test program, which is currently planned for one year from last Monday’s first flight.
Keeping the C-17 alive: Boeing announced the end of production of the C-17 in 2015, but Defense News has an article suggesting how the C-17 might live on.
Posted on September 23, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Several news items following the first flight of Bombardier’s CSeries:
Posted on September 16, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Update: First flight touchdown at 12:24 EDT, 2 1/2 hours.
Original Post:
Bombardier’s multi-billion dollar gamble to leap from regional airliner manufacturer into the mainline arena took off this morning at about 9:54 AM EDT. The CSeries CS100 Flight Test Vehicle 1 took to the air in clear skies at Montreal Mirabel Airport.
BBD’s flight tests are scheduled to last 12 months. There will be five Flight Test Vehicles based on the 110-seat CS100. Two more FTVs, based on the 135-seat (two class) CS300 will join the program later.
The CS100 is planned to enter service 12 months after the first flight; the CS300 is planned to enter service six months after the CS100.
Bombardier will be testing and monitoring all flight characteristics, performance and systems parameters.
Engine maker Pratt & Whitney will be keenly watching the test flights and evaluating its new engine, the P1000G Pure Power Geared Turbo Fan. This is PW’s multi-billion dollar bet to become a major player again in commercial transports. The GTF has been in development nearly 30 years.
PW, of course, spent the last several years testing the GTF as the company narrowed in on the design that has now been chosen for five platforms: the CSeries, the A320neo family, the Mitsubishi MRJ regional jet, Embraer’s E-Jet E2 re-engine, and a shared position on the Irkut MC-21 from Russia.
PW promises fuel savings of up to 16% over today’s engines, a point better than the competing CFM LEAP. It promises reliability as good as its V2500 on the A320 family. PW undertook years of tests on the ground and flight tests on an Airbus A340 and a PW-owned Boeing 747SP, but flight tests on the CSeries-the first mating of the new engine to the first of the five platforms-will be closely scrutinized to see if performance validates all the tests.
Robert Saia, vice president of PW’s Next Generation Product Family, tells us that ground tests and PW’s Flying Test Bed (FTB) provided the data PW needed to make its promises for the engine. Validating this data on FTV 1 is only part of the engine side of the test program. Overall power capability, specific thrust requirements (notably for go-around situations and spool-up, or re-acceleration, time) will be run during the flight testing.
PW promises an engine that will enable the CSeries to have a 70% smaller noise footprint than its in-production competitors flying today, the Boeing 737-700 and Airbus A319. But this will be the first time the GTF is flown on the plane for which it was designed, so acoustical tests will be performed.
Proving the CSeries and the GTF are as quiet as promised is especially important to Bombardier. It’s sold the airplane to airlines serving noise-sensitive airports in London and Sweden. Canada’s Porter Airlines has a conditional order for up to 30 CS100s for use at Toronto’s downtown City Airport, where noise is an especially sensitive issue.
Acoustical tests don’t have to be performed at these airports, but may be done at any airport that has a certified, noise-calibrated system.
Another key element PW will be watching is the electric communication between the engine and the cockpit and validating maintenance troubleshooting guidelines that will be given to airlines, which must be compatible with the flight manual.
Posted on September 16, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
It’s 0-dark-30 here on the West Coast, waiting for the Bombardier CSeries first flight in 45 minutes.
You can watch on the Bombardier webcast here, where it will go live just before, according to Tweets. You can follow on Twitter at #CSeries.
Posted on September 16, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
Update, 2:30PM PDT: Boeing confirms that Tuesday is the target day for 787-9 first flight, time TBD and subject to weather and other factors.
Update, 3:30pm PDT: Bombardier says 9:30 EDT Monday is the scheduled first flight for CSeries. Twitter follow is #CSeries
Original Post:
It looks like it will be a busy week in aviation news. Bombardier plans the first flight of the CSeries tomorrow, weather permitting (it looks good). Exact time hasn’t been announced. Reuters reports Boeing plans the first flight of the 787-9 Tuesday, though we haven’t seen notice from Boeing on this yet. And we’re waiting any day for Lufthansa Airlines to announce its long-awaited wide-body order.
Lufthansa said to split order: Lufthansa Airlines reportedly will split its order for widebody airplanes between Boeing and Airbus, according to this Bloomberg report.
Embraer EJet improvements: Flight Global has this story about the improvements and another about production rates.
Air Force One: The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has a 42 slide photo display of Air Force Ones, past to present, that’s quite interesting.
Update: “Small Airbus:” If you listen carefully, someone at the end of the video notes that the CSeries “looks like a small Airbus 320.” We couldn’t help but chuckle at this.
[youtube=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OWgjBNI_l-I&w=420&h=315]
Posted on September 15, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
BBD v Boeing on First Flight: We, along with others, have wondered why Bombardier wants a clear, sunny day for first flight when Boeing flew the 787 on a rainy day in December. Was this some regulatory difference between Canada and the US, or was this a policy decision by BBD vs Boeing?
It’s a policy decision, BBD tells us. The Transport Canada flying permit is good for any weather, but the CSeries–for Bombardier–is an entirely new configuration (engines on pods under wings vs rear-mounted engines and T-Tail), new engine types, fly-by-wire and so on. So the company is being conservative. From a technical standpoint, the first flight could be on a rainy day such as that experienced by Boeing (which is tough not to have in Seattle in December).
The high speed taxi tests, followed by the shimmy and braking tests, do need a dry runway and low winds, BBD tells us.
Here’s the weather report through Tuesday at Mirabel Airport. Not very encouraging.
Meanwhile, The Toronto Star has this latest look at when the airplane may fly and comments from others.
Posted on September 11, 2013 by Scott Hamilton
787 Opens New Routes: The Boeing 787 is still getting some negative headlines about dispatch reliability, but the plane is proving Boeing’s underlying message about opening new, “thin” routes. The Tacoma News-Tribune has this story detailing how the 787 is fulfilling the dream (so-to-speak).
CSeries First Flight: The weather forecast in Montreal deteriorated further overnight. Now rain is predicted through Saturday, making first flight unlikely until at least Sunday.
Guess Whose Airplane? You’d never know from the titles and logo painted out, would you?
NBC News Photo
CNN has this story on the matter. This is the first accident in 12 years, according to Wikipedia when a crew member was killed in a fire that destroyed a Boeing 737 on the ground. The last accident involving passengers was in 1998, according to Wiki.
Speaking of Accidents: Here’s an unusual one: A Delta Air Lines commuter plane struck a car parked on the tarmac while the plane was being towed.
ClickonDetroit photo.
Let’s see the owner of the car explain this one to his insurance company.
Posted on September 10, 2013 by Scott Hamilton