Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
- Boeing welcomes COMAC competition as Asia-Pacific demand soars April 15, 2025
- How good is the C929? April 14, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 17. April 11, 2025
- Uncertainty plagues airline, aerospace, lessor industries over tariffs April 10, 2025
Odds and Ends: A350, 737MAX, 787; ACG is #10; and more
Guessing Game: The mysterious nine customers for the 737 MAX continues to confound observers. Actually, there were nine before Aviation Capital Group signed up, so ACG was #10.
- American Airlines
- Lion Air
- Aviation Capital Group
- GECAS
- COPA
- GOL
- Norwegian Air
Three more; we have three of the names but not confirmed.
Airbus A350 delay: Airbus announced a delay of six months; we think it prudent to add 3-6 more.
Aviation Week has a comprehensive table of neo vs MAX orders.
Boeing 787 Deliveries: All Things 787 reports there will be only two more deliveries this year and why.
Boeing 737 MAX: Note the wording in the Boeing press release about Aviation Capital Group’s commitment for the MAX: “ACG first leasing company to announce commitment for 737 MAX.” Not that ACG is the first lessor to commit; it is the first leasing company to announce its commitment. We understand two other lessors have committed. One is GECAS (no surprise, given the family-engine connection). We haven’t identified the other one with enough confidence to publish its name yet.
Bombardier: There remain three unidentified orders announced by BBD: one in Europe, two in the Middle East. The Middle Eastern ones should be revealed at the Bahrain Air Show. (This probably gives you a hint who they are and why they weren’t revealed at the rival Dubai show.)
Also, with some aerospace analysts increasingly speculating the CSeries entry-into-service will slip to 2014 (and, for the moment, BBD says ’tain’t so), we’ll remind everyone that the AirInsight CSeries Business Case report of December 2010 assumed a 2014 EIS.
Embraer: EMB has teamed with Alcoa to offerer advanced metals on the E-Jet RE, to lighten weights and reduce maintenance. EMB isn’t using composites (BBD’s CSeries has an aluminum-lithium fuselage and composite wings), but the E-Jets at 2×2 seating and 2,000 mile range are lighter than the CS-100 with which they will compete. Ninety percent of the US domestic flying is less than 2,000 miles (other areas of the world are likewise), so the operating costs vs the 2×3 seating, heavier CS100 will be interesting to watch.
YouTube: We’ve added a YouTube category in the right hand column, with links to OEM You Tube channels. So far we have Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier Aerospace, CFM and Embraer. As we find more, we’ll add them.
Posted on November 18, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Dubai Air Show review
The Dubai Air Show is over, with record orders being announced.
2 x B777F for Qatar
20 x A320neo for ACG
45 x A320neo/30 x A320 for Spirit (MoU)
50 x A320neo for Qatar with PW1100G-JM (+30 options)
5 x A380 for Qatar (+3 options)
ALAFCO announcing GTF for all A320neo
Emirates 50+20 777-300ERS
10 x CS300 for Atlasjet (LoI)
We took a bye on daily coverage because we weren’t there and the on-site reporters could do better than we could from afar. So we decided to do a post-show pontification.
Overview
Airbus and Boeing dominated the headline–no surprise there–but while Boeing had a blow-out order with 50+20 777-300ERs from Emirates Airlines, Airbus had another mind-xxxx from the mercurial Akbar “U-Turn” Al-Baker, CEO of Qatar Airways. Al-Baker is now the subject of a mocking Twitter account, @AkbarAlFaker, having a conversation with @MichaelOhReally.
This Bloomberg story gives a nice wrap.
Posted on November 16, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Embraer decides on re-engine, takes a pass on NSA
Embraer announced that it will take a pass on developing a New Small Airplane in the 130-155 seat class and instead re-engine the E-Jet series, possibly with stretch to 133 seats (smack in the middle of the Bombardier CSeries 100/300 size). Targeted entry-in-service (EIS) is 2018.
Aeroturbopower, which focuses on engine stuff, already has this back-of-the-envelope analysis.
As Aeroturbopower notes, EMB favors a one-stop, trans-continental airplane (2,000-2,200nm) over the full transcontinental range of the CSeries (although BBD offers a lighter-weight CSeries with 2,200nm range as well). About 90% of the US domestic flights are within this range but the E-Jet is 2×2 vs the CS 2×3 seating. Aeroturbopower concludes the E-Jet will have lower seat costs.
Aeroturbopower also compares the E-Jet with the Mitsubishi MRJ.
Posted on November 11, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and Ends: Delta’s small jet deferral and other things
- Delta Air Lines deferred the highly anticipated order for the 100-150 seat airplane due to worries about taking on too much debt in the current economic environment. Multiple sources say Bombardier’s CSeries had been favored over the Embraer E-195.
- Delta’s RFP from Boeing didn’t include the re-engined airplane because at the time of the RFP, the 737RE didn’t exist. But we are 99% certain conversion rights will be in the final contract.
- The Airbus A321neo does have its promised EIS until 2017, and Airbus was unlikely to be able to offer production slots for this model until 2019. Delta wants all aircraft delivered by 2018 and Airbus couldn’t meet this with the A321 Legacy, either. Plus the price was higher.
- At 10:50am PDT our readership YTD exceeded all of 2010.
Posted on August 22, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Delta to order 737-900s, small airplane order deferred
Bloomberg News just tweeted Delta Air Lines is to order 100 Boeing 737-900s. WE have three sources saying the same, though without the number.
Boeing won the deal over the Airbus A320/320neo due to earlier delivery positions and price, we are told.
Update, 9:50am PDT: We heard last week that Delta may defer ordering the 100-150 seat airplane and while we’ve been working to confirm this, Flightblogger beat us to it.
UPDATE 12:46 PM ET: CONFIRMED – Delta will order 100 737-900ER aircraft, the largest single order for the type. Further, industry sources confirm that a selection of a smaller narrowbody that pitted the CSeries against the Embraer E-195 has been delayed, as the airline does not see the same level of urgency to replace its 757s starting in 2013. The airline’s aircraft evaluations excluded consideration of the re-engined narrowbodies from Airbus and Boeing. FULL STORY SHORTLY
Posted on August 22, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Embraer ponders new, 2,000nm airplane
The interesting thing about this is that Bank of America’s Ronald Epstein characterizes the CSeries as having too much range with 2,950nm, which gives it US trans-continental operations. In fact, Bombardier offers two versions: the 2,950nm range XT and the 2,200nm standard.
Posted on August 8, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Analysts opine on Embraer, Bombardier
Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan issued notes this week that give some opinions on rivals Embraer and Bombardier:
Goldman Sachs: Embraer
July 31: We believe Embraer remains the best, yet most ignored, story in our commercial aerospace coverage. We highlight the following key incremental takeaways from the EPS report and conference call: (1) 2H regional jet new orders could equal or surpass 1H (even though 1H was a record) which would mean full-year 2011 book-to- bill would surpass 2.0X. We think demand for the E-190 right now is stronger relative to current supply than any aircraft in the world. (2) Tone on business jet was noticeably more positive for the first time in a while, with particular strength noted on the Phenom 300. We think ERJ can close to triple its business jet revenue between now and 2015. (3) Defense opportunities are occurring faster than expected. We continue to see very large upside potential in ERJ’s Defense segment given initiatives around the World Cup and Olympics and how large the KC-390 program will be. (4) Management sounds confident it can continue to expand margins despite the Real, and possibly meaningfully if the Real were to reverse. (5) Next-gen product strategy decisions are likely made by year-end, and it sounds like one of either a clean sheet or E-195 stretch / re-engine will occur (we believe the case for the latter increasingly makes sense).
Posted on August 2, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
For Boeing: when one door closes, another door opens
There’s a saying that when one door closes on an opportunity, another door opens. This is the case with Boeing’s decision to proceed with a 737 re-engine. We first wrote about this in a previous post. Max-Kinglsey Jones of Airline Business picked up the theme in his recent blog.
There’s no question Boeing’s march down the path to re-engining was driven by Airbus, it was embarrassing and it was messy. Having said that, the re-engine frees resources and money to concentrate on getting the 787-9 right, launching the 787-10 and deciding what to do with the 777-300ER to meet the competition of the re-defined A350-1000.
Posted on July 23, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Paris Air Show outlook
There are several items looking at the Paris Air Show outlook:
AirInsight had a live discussion Friday with Addison Schonland, Richard Aboulafia and Ernie Arvai hosting it. The transcript is here.
AirInsight also published a lengthy written preview of what to expect from all the major airframe and engine OEMs here.
Here’s a short-take on Airbus at the show.
Posted on June 6, 2011 by Scott Hamilton
Odds and ends: More on DC-7B trip
Here are some more photos from our DC-7B trip. All photos by Scott Hamilton.
This PBY Catalina, a derelict but intact condition, is at the San Juan Airport. Given the loss of a PBY several years ago in a landing accident, could this become a new, restored edition?
Posted on May 31, 2011 by Scott Hamilton