The Farnborough Air Show isn’t just about orders, though these get all the sex and headlines.
While we weren’t at the show, we had a telephone interview with a company called Constellium, previously known as Alcan. Constellium spoke at the February conference of the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance, with which we are involved. We were particularly interested in talking with Constellium because it is a major supplier of Aluminum-Lithium, an alternative material to standard aluminum and a competing material to composites.
Constellium’s Al-Li combines other processes, including a design for recycling, and is named AirWare. Airbus, Boeing and Bombardier are among their key customers, and it is Constellium that is providing the materials for the CSeries. It’s also a supplier on the Airbus A350 (internal components, not the fuselage).
As Airbus and Boeing looked at the A320neo and 737 MAX, and as Boeing is looking at the 777X, we asked them about the prospect of using Al-Li. This is lighter than standard aluminum, more durable, less susceptible to corrosion and enabled 12 years between major maintenance overhauls compared with the 6-8 years now.
But Al-Li is more difficult to work with than standard aluminum. Boeing’s Mike Bair told us in an interview that Boeing considered Al-Li back in the 1990s when designing the 777 but it was too difficult and costly to manufacture. Since then, he praised the producers for strides. There are mixed reports what material will be used for the 777X fuselage: standard metal or Al-Li. The Seattle Times reported the airplane will have Al-Li. We’ve been told it won’t. But with the airplane still months and perhaps a year from launch, there is plenty of time to decide.
Airbus, in an interview at the Paris Air Show last year, said it was evaluating Al-Li for the A320neo. The A320ceo is heavier than the competing Boeing 737 and the re-engine adds about 4,000 lbs. Using Al-Li would mitigate some of this weight. We haven’t heard if Airbus might go ahead with Al-Li, but we’re leaning toward concluding that it won’t.
Boeing told us it will not switch to Al-Li for the MAX because the manufacturing process is just enough different that it would add complexity and cost to the current tooling and procedures.
Al-Li vs composites is a competition that will likely be fierce when it comes time for Airbus and Boeing to design the next clean-sheet airplanes, presumed to be the New Small Airplane, or replacement for the current 737/A320 class. (Boeing may have a new clean-sheet for the 757 class; it has a New Airplane Study underway for this, but the market may be too narrow when one considers the 737-9 MAX and A321neo will do 95% of what a 757 can do.)
Composites, selected for the 787 and A350 XWB fuselages and wings, offer advantages over standard metal fuselages that have been well documented and need not be repeated here. But Airbus and Boeing question the efficiency and benefits of down-scaling composites to 737/A320 category airplanes. Boeing apparently became convinced: Jim Albaugh, former CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, said the New Small Airplane would have been composite, but the ability to produce it at a rate of 60 per month remained a challenge. Boeing went with the MAX instead.
Vistagy, a composite manufacturer near Boston, told us nearly two years ago, that the down-scaling challenges were met and that production rates were the issue. Autoclaves are very costly and so is the manufacturing process. There is actually less industrial waste than traditional aluminum manufacturing, but the materials are generally more hazardous—though there have been strides on this score.
This is the background that intrigued us when we had the opportunity to speak with Constellium’s Simon Laddychuk, VP of Manufacturing Global Aerospace and Director of Technology. Read more
Posted on July 10, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut
737MAX, 777X, A320NEO, Boeing, Bombardier, Constellium, CSeries, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, MRJ, MS-21
McNerney rejects “price war.” A quote from a Financial Times story (see below).
He rejected suggestions that a price war had broken out between Airbus and Boeing over the A320 Neo and 737 Max but confirmed the US manufacturer would woo some airline customers of its European rival.
Courtesy of Aspire Aviation, here is a summary of orders through Day 1:
Airbus
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Arkia Israel Airlines |
4 |
A321neo |
Agreement |
Boeing
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Air Lease Corp (ALC) |
60 |
737 MAX 8 |
Reconfirmation rights for 25 more |
9th July |
Air Lease Corp (ALC) |
15 |
737 MAX 9 |
|
Pratt & Whitney
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
IndiGo |
300 |
PW1100G-JM |
|
9th July |
CIT |
60 |
PW1100G-JM |
|
9th July |
Cebu Pacific |
60 |
PW1100G-JM |
For 30 firm A321neos |
9th July |
Norwegian Air Shuttle (NAS) |
100 |
PW1100G-JM |
MoU |
CFM
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Air Lease Corp (ALC) |
150 |
CFM Leap-1B |
|
Embraer
Date |
Customer |
Quantity |
Model |
Remarks |
9th July |
Hebei Airlines |
5 |
E-190s |
Booked in Q2 backlog |
Reuters put together a handy-dandy thing to calculate airplane prices easily. These are list prices, of course.
Some stories of note:
United to announce big MAX order July 12
AirInsight is posting daily news and videos.
The Financial Times of London has a piece with Boeing’s Jim McNerney. (Free but limited registration required.) Here’s a relevant quote.
Boeing announced the 737 Max in August last year and Mr McNerney said that “in retrospect” the US manufacturer should have made its decision to proceed with a revamped version of its narrow-body workhorse, rather than a brand new aircraft, “six to nine months” earlier.
Posted on July 9, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus in Mobile: We doubt Boeing is really Sleepless in Seattle but this piece is pretty amusing.
Take that, Part 1: Boeing continues to whine about WTO.
Take that, Part 2: So’s your Old Man.
Here are a few final thoughts in advance of the Farnborough Air Show:
Posted on July 4, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer
777X, 787-10, 90-seat turbo-prop, A330-300, A350, Airbus, ATR, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, John Leahy, Ray Conner
Overview
This is really expected to be a boring show from the perspective of orders. Airbus has been downplaying expectations following last year’s Paris Air Show blow-out of more than 1,200 A320neo orders. How can you match that? The answer is, Airbus can’t.
Boeing will certainly firm up hundreds of 737 MAX commitments, so this will be Boeing’s show. And there is the buzz that Boeing is partnering with Lockheed Martin and NASA (oh, another government subsidy?) to produce a 2,500 mph SST, with details supposed to come at the Air Show. Then there is the leak that the 787 will fly there, the first time in 28 years Boeing has an aerial flying display.
We’ve talked with several journalists and industry personnel who are skipping the Air Show this year. So are we, and we’ve been at the Farnborough and Paris air shows since 2008. We just don’t expect enough news this year that we can’t get from the press releases.
So here are our expectations for the show:
Posted on June 26, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
China trojans: we’re not talking about condoms, either. This item from Defense Tech is pretty alarming. And while this piece is also pretty alarming, though it isn’t about China. Or maybe it is. The chips are made by the same company, sourcing them in China.
China is the biggest threat: So says Jim Albaugh, CEO of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Aviation Week has this article about an Albaugh appearance in the UK.
EADS ponders its own bank: This would give it access to low-cost funds and protect against the Euro, officials say. Here’s an article. Our first thought: since the WTO ruled Airbus launch aid was illegally structured because of below market rates (but did not rule the aid itself illegal), this returns EADS/Airbus to the low-cost funding access. Clever. Wonder what Boeing thinks about this?
Posted on June 1, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
The final panel at the ISTAT meeting is the much-anticipated lessors’ panel consisting of:
Jeff Knittle, president of CIT Aerospace, moderator;
Henri Courpron, Chairman of ILFC;
Ray Sisson, CEO of AWAS;
Norman Liu, CEO of GECAS; and
Steve Udvar-Hazy, CEO of Air Lease Corp.
Paraphrasing:
Posted on March 20, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Chet Fuller, SVP Commercial, Bombardier
Luiz Chiessi, Director of Marketing Strategy of Embraer
Mark Neeley, VP-Marketing, ATR
John Buckley, VP Business Development, Sukhoi Superjet International
Fuller
Chiessi
Buckley
Neeley
Posted on March 19, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
The CEO of Republic Airways Holdings seems to be vying to be America’s version of U-Turn Al, Akbar Al-Baker, the CEO of Qatar Airways.
Bedford appears to be engaged in a campaign to raise questions about the Bombardier CSeries, for which he has orders and options for 80 CS300s, much the same way U-Turn Al alternatively praises then complains about the Airbus A350, Boeing 747-8F (ordered by Cargolux, in which Qatar owns a third) and the Boeing 787. U-Turn Al has also alternative praised, condemned then praised the Airbus A320neo, Bombardier CSeries and the Pratt & Whitney GTF.
Keeping up with U-Turn Al’s about-faces has been a dizzying prospect.
Bedford praised the CSeries when ordering it but has become increasingly skeptical of the program once he ordered the A319neo (with CFM LEAP engines) in what was a financial bailout of his ailing company being dragged down by Frontier Airlines. The Airbus order raised questions whether Bedford would cancel the CSeries since the A319neo competes with the CS300. Bedford initially said the order would stand. More recently, he appears to be doing everything to cast a shadow over the program.
Posted on March 15, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, CSeries, Embraer, Pratt & Whitney
737-700, 747-8F, 787, A319, A319neo, A320NEO, A350, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Bryan Bedford, Cargolux, CFM, CSeries, E-190, E-195, Embraer, GTF, LEAP, Pratt & Whitney, Qatar Airways, Republic Airways, U-Turn Al
As long-time readers of this column know, we have utter disdain for the World Trade Organization and its review of international competitive practices, such as the cases of Airbus and Boeing subsidies.
Here is another example of why we have disdain. As noted in this example, the WTO found China to be in violation of WTO rules on raw materials export rules but China did not remove the restrictions.
We’ve previously noted that the WTO found Brazil and Canada to be in violation of export support for Embraer and Bombardier airplanes–and nothing happened.
We’ve previously noted that the WTO has no power to enforce its own decisions and that the trade rules allow the winning country to impose tariffs on industries not involved in the original dispute. Thus, with respect to the Airbus and Boeing cases, the US could impose tariffs on French wine and the European Union could impose tariffs on Washington State wine or apples–or any other industries.
We find this completely ridiculous.
While the US has asked the WTO authority to impose tariffs with respect to the Airbus case, we would be shocked if it followed through (assuming, of course, the WTO authorized action) and tax Airbus imports into the US. The EU would retaliate by placing tariffs on Boeing. Nobody would win.
Posted on March 13, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Here is an expanded version of a story we did last week for Flight Global Pro.
The refrain that Airbus and Boeing are over-producing the core-A320 and 737 programmes resurfaced with lessor AerCap in an interview with The Wall Street Journal.
Aengus Kelly, CEO, chastised the Big Two OEMs for production plans announced so far. Airbus will go to a rate of 42 per month by the end of this year and is considering 44. Boeing plans to hit rate 42 by 2014. Both companies are considering rates as high as 60 per month.
Airbus produces airplanes only 11 months of the year while Boeing is on a 12 month production schedule.
In its 2011 20-year forecast, Boeing predicts there is a need for 23,370 single aisle aircraft in the 90-210 seat category. Airbus predicts 19,165 in the 100-210 seat market.
Based on the announced production rates, and assuming no changes through the 2030 forecast period in production—or for adjustments in the forecasts—Airbus and Boeing will produce 18,551 single-aisle airplanes.
If both OEMs go to rate 60 by 2016, their combined production exceeds their own single-aisle forecasts.
Posted on February 27, 2012 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer
AerCap, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi