How good will an Airbus A350F be? Part 2.

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

July 22, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we compared the probable data for an Airbus A350 freighter with the market-leading Boeing 777F. We found the 777F is a heavy-duty freighter with a very high payload capability.

Airbus has to use the A350-1000 toolbox to design something similar. The aircraft would be shorter than a -1000, however, to optimize its efficiency. How much better in efficiency than the 777F would it be? We put both in our performance model and fly them from China to the US.

Summary
  • An Airbus A350 freighter has to come close to the 104t payload of the 777F.
  • Can it do that, it has convincing economics compared with the 777F.

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Global airline recovery: LNA’s view shifts from traffic to revenue, but our timeline hasn’t changed

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By Judson Rollins

Introduction 

July 19, 2021, © Leeham News: A year ago last week, LNA published what might have seemed an apocalyptic call: global airline passenger traffic would not recover until 2024 at the earliest – and potentially not until 2028.

Early trends and forecast revisions by other parties point to the earlier half of our window. However, one major downside surprise has been an increasingly bifurcated world for airlines as demand returns at widely uneven rates by region and passenger segment.

Air travel is undergoing a “K-shaped recovery” like the global economy, with fairly obvious delineation between winners and losers. The upper leg of the “K” represents countries with large domestic markets, leisure travel, short-haul routes, and low-cost carriers.

The lower leg applies to developing countries, international traffic, business travel, long-haul routes, full-service airlines – and most airline suppliers.

Source: International Air Transport Association.

In hindsight, our prediction probably answered the wrong question, because the key driver of renewed profitability and future investment in commercial aviation isn’t the recovery of airline traffic, but revenue. The many changes to business and long-haul travel make revenue more difficult to forecast, but it will clearly be even slower to return than traffic.

Most industry forecasts don’t call for airline traffic to fully recover until 2024 or 2025, even if large domestic markets recover sooner. That means airline revenue – and profitability – will still be hampered until late this decade.

Summary
  • Advanced and developed economies are on widely divergent economic trajectories.
  • Global travel recovery statistics are distorted by a couple of large domestic markets.
  • Vaccine rollout and documentation issues are likely to keep borders closed for longer.
  • Revenue recovery matters more than volume, both to airlines and the aviation supply chain.

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How good is an Airbus A350 freighter?

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

July 15, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus is working on a freighter of the A350 to compete with Boeing’s larger freighters, such as the 777F.

The 777F is quite a different aircraft than the 777-200LR, which shares its external dimensions, and the 777-300ER that has donated a lot of the internal structure. So will the A350 freighter be based on the A350-900, as the rumors say, or A350-1000? And how good will it be compared to the 777F?

We use our performance model to find out.

Summary
  • The A350-900 is the rumored base for the new Airbus freighter that shall compete with the Boeing 777F.
  • Is it the correct assumption? When we look under the hood with our performance model, we see it isn’t.

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Is the Redhawk Development process the future at Boeing?

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By the Leeham News Team

Boeing wants to converge advanced design and production processes from across the 7-Series platforms and the Defense unit into one commercial airplane–its Next Boeing Airplane, or NBA. Photo: Boeing.

 July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: It may be an overstatement to say that Boeing CEO David Calhoun will be the future of Boeing Commercial Airplanes on a radical production makeover.

But it’s not an understatement to say that the production moonshot contemplated is critical to BCA.

However, advanced production processes are only part of the challenge facing Boeing. A radical shift in employee culture is also required for success.

Boeing Defense, Space & Security (BDS) is doing good things with respect to the T-7 Redhawk Trainer Integration. BDS slid the first fuselage together in 30 minutes. But the question before us is this. Is this 30 minute join process a revolutionary process change that Boeing can scale for transport category aircraft, or a byproduct of Great Hardware Variability Control in a simple non-variable end item. Fighter-sized aircraft are simple to build. Highly variable Commercial aircraft are another story completely.

Calhoun, and before him CEOs Dennis Muilenburg and Jim McNerney, would lead you to believe that some new magic occurred in the digital design and that this new magic will transfer to the next Boeing airliner and new engines are not necessary. That’s a bold position to take, so let’s look at what might be involved behind his thinking.

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Asia-Pacific airline recovery held back by slow vaccination, border closures

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By Judson Rollins

Introduction 

July 5, 2021, © Leeham News: The passenger air travel recovery from COVID-19 has been wildly uneven, even between neighboring countries. Most countries with large domestic markets have seen dramatic rebounds in passenger volumes, although yields have been held back by a continued slump in long-haul and business travel.

Aircraft parked at Hong Kong International Airport, with construction on a third runway in the background. Source: Bloomberg.

In the Asia-Pacific region, however, even short-haul international traffic has been disrupted by virus outbreaks, a painfully slow vaccine rollout, and a largely stagnant web of border closures.

Summary
  • Much of Asia is well behind global average in the vaccine rollout.
  • Domestic markets in China, Australia, and New Zealand are performing strongly.
  • Border closures continue to cripple international travel.
  • Many Asian countries are likely to stay closed well into 2022.
  • Most Asian airlines are reporting slow progress toward capacity restoration.

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China distorts progress in Boeing 737 MAX return to service

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By Scott Hamilton

Introduction

June 28, 2021, © Leeham News: There are now 265 Boeing 737 MAXes in airline service, according to data reviewed by LNA.

There are 263 MAXes in storage that appear to be previously delivered airplanes. This number is artificially inflated by the 95 MAXes that are grounded in China. China’s regulator hasn’t recertified the MAX, a move widely considered political due to the long-running trade war between the US and China initiated by the Trump Administration.

When the MAX was grounded in March 2019, there were 387 in service. The math indicates 147 MAXes were delivered from inventory or new production since the airplane was recertified by the Federal Aviation Administration in November 2020 and other regulators shortly afterward.

There were 400 MAXes in inventory at the end of the first quarter, down from 425 at the end of the year. Boeing resumed production in the single digits. Boeing does not reveal its rate, but it is believed to be about 10-14/mo going to 16/mo in the third quarter.

In contrast, there are 106 A320neos and 38 A321neos in storage as of last Friday.

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Europe’s airline recovery: a tale of two continents

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By Judson Rollins

Introduction 

June 24, 2021, © Leeham News: The recovery in passenger air travel from COVID-19 has been wildly uneven. A dramatic recovery in passenger volume – although not yield – in many domestic markets has been offset by a continuing sharp slump in international traffic.

The latter has proven particularly crippling to European airlines, most of which have miniscule domestic markets. Intra-EU travel, although generally permitted by member countries, has been slow to recover as business travelers have failed to return in meaningful numbers.

Meanwhile, long-haul travel remains hampered, most recently by an ever-changing landscape of “red zone,” “orange zone,” and “green zone” labels, plus other restrictions placed on arriving travelers.

The bright spot is strong leisure travel demand, which is propelling the continent’s low-cost carriers much closer to recovery than their legacy counterparts. This LCC-versus-legacy split brings into sharp relief the state of European airline traffic.

Source: European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control

 

Summary
  • Vaccine rollout ahead of many developed markets; certificate program launching next week.
  • Legacy carrier recovery is dragging out, weighed down by business and long-haul travel woes.
  • LCCs performing relatively well, with some on track to fully recover next year.
  • Train service unlikely to displace airline demand.

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The Ultrafan Project

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By Vincent Valery

Introduction  

June 21, 2021, © Leeham News: Rolls-Royce launched the Ultrafan in 2014, a project to develop next-generation geared turbofan engines. The engine OEM has been working on that project ever since.

The Ultrafan demonstrator started the final assembly this year at the OEM’s Derby facility, with a plan to start and complete ground testing in 2022. Rolls-Royce will await a new OEM program launch to finalize the development to a production engine after 2022.

While using a power gearbox has gathered most of the attention, the Ultrafan uses other new technologies to enable a leap in fuel efficiency. LNA analyzes the technologies used and what lies ahead for the program.

Summary
  • An evolving rationale for the Ultrafan business case;
  • Much more than the addition of a power gearbox;
  • A break with the Trent design
  • A significant infrastructure uplift;
  • Awaiting the next OEM move.

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Freighter conversion will absorb some excess widebody supply – but not all

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By Judson Rollins

Introduction

June 17, 2021, © Leeham News: A key question hanging over the used widebody market is what percentage of available aircraft could be converted into freighters.

Indeed, existing passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversion providers are ramping up capacity and new ones are coming online. However, much of the P2F capacity growth is focused on converting used 737s and A320-family aircraft.

Airbus and Boeing foresee a market for 1,500-1,600 conversions over the next 20 years. While Boeing doesn’t break out its forecast between single-aisle and widebody aircraft, Airbus believes 670 of these will be widebodies.

Conversion work at Israel’s IAI on the first 777-300ER P2F. Source: IAI via Cargo Facts.

In this analysis, LNA explores the size of the market, key providers, conversion capacity, and likely buyers of converted aircraft.

Summary
  • Nearly 2,000 widebodies are in storage or coming off lease by 2030.
  • New-build freighters will go to more established operators, while P2Fs are preferred by operators wishing to minimize capital costs.
  • At current production rates, up to 400 widebodies could be converted by 2030.
  • Early-production 787s, A350s are less likely to be converted.

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Airbus program update tomorrow: what will officials reveal?

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By Scott Hamilton

Introduction

June 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus will provide a commercial program update tomorrow in Toulouse.

Will the Next Boeing Airplane be like the 757 with a composite new wing and new engines? Boeing photo.

But will officials announce Authority to Offer (ATO) an A350 freighter for sale?

Will they formally acknowledge development of an “A322”?

There is a plethora of articles, including LNA, in recent weeks discussed the prospect of Airbus launching an A350F this year. Potential customers have seen presentations from Airbus. Boeing’s overwhelming dominance in freighters is under threat.

If Airbus announces ATO tomorrow, Boeing may be forced to take its 777-8F concept out of mothballs. Boeing suspended development of the 777-8 and -8F during the 737 MAX and pandemic crises.

Then there is the prospect of the long-talked about “A322.”

This airplane, if launched, will have a new composite wing, more powerful engines and up to 24 more passengers. The wing is called the Wing of Tomorrow and has been under development for years.

If Airbus launches the A322, which also has a working name of A321 Plus Plus, Boeing will find it very tough to build a business case for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). The most recent iteration seems to be basically a reinvention of the 757-200/300: a metallic fuselage with a composite wing and new engines.

Summary
  • Airbus now has the leadership role held by Boeing for decades, says the industry’s most influential executive.
  • What does the Next Boeing Airplane look like?
  • Airbus thinks it can match the NBA with an A322 for a lot less money to the customer.
  • But will airlines want a 2025 technology or be satisfied with a makeover for an Airbus with roots in 1980s technology?

    Boeing’s CEO says the next airplane won’t be a response to just the Airbus A321XLR. Airbus photo.

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