Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus brings BelugaST to outsized cargo market
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Airbus has decided to bring the original Beluga fleet, BelugaST (A300 based), on the market for outsized freight transport, as the newer BelugaXL (A330 based) caters for Airbus internal needs.
It has a larger cross-section than the AN-124, a tad longer freight compartment, and loads outsized but less heavy cargo. When all BelugaXLs are delivered, the ST will be spun off to a dedicated external freight company, Airbus Beluga Transport.
Figure 1. The cargo space of the BelugaST compared with the AN-124. Source: Airbus and Leeham Co.
Boeing invests $450m in Wisk Aero air taxi venture
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 25, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Boeing and Wisk Aero yesterday had a media briefing on why Boeing is extending its investment in Wisk Aero with a further $450m.
The main technology is not the eVTOL aircraft. Wisk is just one of many upstarts that relies on batteries and multiple electrical propulsors to create a VTOL air taxi. It’s the pilotless operation that’s the key technology in the project. As perhaps the only VTOL company, Wisk goes directly to pilotless flight.
Brian Yutko, VP of Sustainability and Future Mobility at Boeing, explained: “The pilotless flight technology is of great interest to Boeing. It’s challenging technology, but it has a wide field of applications once mastered. We are not targeting our airliners but other civil and military applications. It’s an important driver for us in the continued support for our Wisk joint venture.”
Figure 1. The fifth-generation prototype Cora, with which flight tests are done in New Zeeland. Source: Wisk Aero.
Putting some reality into ecoAviation: steps *backwards*
By Scott Hamilton
Analysis
Jan. 25, 2022, © Leeham News: The airline industry makes a splash about setting goals to become carbon neutral by a date certain. It also set a goal to reduce CO2 emissions in absolute terms by a date 30 years in the future after achieving carbon neutrality.
How will these lofty goals be achieved?
Using lightweight materials in airplanes, including composites. Improving aerodynamics. More fuel-efficient engines. There’s “great promise” in biofuels. Improving air traffic management.
Were these the big announcements by the International Air Transport Assn. at its annual general meeting in October in Boston?
Nope.
Jim Albaugh, former president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes. Credit: Boeing.
These goals were outlined in a speech in June 2011 by Jim Albaugh, then-president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BAC) before the prestigious Royal Aeronautical Society (RAS).
The IATA AGM pronouncements went backward. Albaugh said in 2011 that the aviation industry’s goal of net-carbon neutrality was for 2020. IATA’s goal for achieving net carbon neutrality is 2050, the year Albaugh said was the goal to reduce CO2 emissions in absolute terms.
Lockheed near announcing location for LMXT tanker final assembly line in US
By Scott Hamilton
Jan. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Lockheed Martin (LMCO) is expected to announce as early as this month where it will assemble its LMXT aerial refueling tanker should it win the US Air Force’s KC-Y contract. Lockheed’s 2021 earnings call is tomorrow, Jan. 25, but it’s unclear if an 
announcement will be made on the call.
The top contenders appear to be the Airbus final assembly complex in Mobile (AL), or Lockheed’s own facilities in Marietta (GA). Others may be in the mix.
In an interview with LNA Thursday, Larry Gallogly, the director of the LMXT campaign, said an announcement will be made “toward the end of this month.”
LMCO will compete for the US Air Force’s KC-Y Bridge Tanker contract. The Request for Proposals is expected to be issued this year. Boeing will offer its KC-46A tanker. The KC-46A fulfills the KC-X contract won by Boeing in 2011.
Pontifications: A retrospective of the KC-X refueling tanker competition from Boeing’s perspective
Part 2 of the Boeing focus for the USAF Aerial Refueling Tanker
Jan. 24, 2022, © Leeham News: Jim Albaugh was president of Boeing Integrated Defense System (IDS), now known as Boeing Defense, Space and Security (BDS) during the competition for the US Air Force’s KC-X program.
By Scott Hamilton
After 9/11 (2001), Boeing was reeling as US airlines canceled or deferred orders in the aftermath of the terror attacks in New York City and Washington (DC). Terrorists hijacked four airplanes (all Boeing, as it turned out) operated by American and United airlines. Then, US carriers dominated the world market as customers for Boeing and Airbus. Boeing was disproportionately affected, as it was the USA’s two biggest airlines that were victims of the terror attacks.
Forecast 2022: IRKUT
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
January 24, 2022, © Leeham News: IRKUT became the Airliner company in Russia’s United Aircraft Corporation when the Superjet project was transferred from Sukhoi in February 2020.
The rationale was to focus the new single-aisle MC-21 and the regional Superjet in one entity where the needed investment in after-sales support, a chronic weakness of Russian aircraft, could be concentrated.
The MC-21 is the most advanced of the world’s single-aisle designs, with a roomy fuselage and a composite wing. But this, the market’s best design, has the worst chances for success. We go through why.
Summary
- The MC-21 has a fuselage design that makes it roomier without causing extra drag or weight.
- It also has the most advanced wing, an out-of-autoclave resin infusion design, the type which Airbus is aiming for in the “Wing of Tomorrow” project.
- But despite the best technology, it has the slimmest market chances. It has little to do with the aircraft itself.
Bjorn’s Corner: Sustainable Air Transport. Part 3. Low hanging fruit.
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 21, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Whatever is done in terms of new Sustainable technology for the aircraft, will have a limited influence on the amount of Greenhouse gases that Air Transport emits before 2050.
We will only get the new aircraft types into operation about 15 years before the deadline and with, on average, 100 to 200 aircraft per year. That’s 1,500 to 3,000 of the total of 25,000 aircraft that operate in our skies daily. It will not reduce our Greenhouse gas emissions significantly.
Sustainable Aviation Fuel, SAF, will help, but only when it’s available in quantity and to a reasonable cost. We can do things that have a much faster effect, and that’s how we manage our flights.
Figure 1. The US flights as seen on Flightradar24 yesterday. Source: Flightradar24.
Reducing one’s carbon footprint through flying choices
Subscription Required
By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Jan. 20, 2022, © Leeham News: Discussions about reducing commercial aviation’s carbon emissions have become more prominent over the last few years.
Many projects claim that electric(-hybrid) and hydrogen aircraft will be available in the not-too-distant future to make net-zero emissions flying a reality. Sustainable Aviation Fuels (SAFs) will also drastically reduce lifecycle carbon emissions with only minor changes to the current aircraft.
The IATA committed to a net-zero carbon emissions target by 2050. While all those long-term aspirations are well, significant challenges remain.
LNA has highlighted that the low energy density of batteries means that electric aircraft can at best work on small planes for short flights. Developing a medium-haul hydrogen-powered aircraft will require numerous innovations that suggest an entry into service before 2035 is not realistic. The challenges in increasing SAFs supply affordably to meaningful levels are monumental.
We have pointed out that all the above are far into the future. To meaningfully reduce emissions over the next decade, the introduction of more fuel-efficient gas turbines and turboprops is the only realistic and impactful lever.
Another lever has not been mentioned so far to reduce one’s carbon emissions. Other than not flying at all, how we fly from A to B can have significantly different carbon footprint levels.
This series will highlight the different levels of carbon emissions depending on how one flies on different routes.
Summary
- Setting the problem out;
- Challenges in defining unit emissions;
- Factors outside one’s control;
- Introducing a few examples.
US 5G roll out ignores concerns for Air Transport safety
By Bjorn Fehrm
January 18, 2022, ©. Leeham News: Despite year-long protests from the World’s airlines and the FAA, the FCC (Federal Communications Commission) allows Verizon and ATT to roll out 5G base stations underneath the approach paths of landing aircraft in the US.
In 2020 the RTCA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics) did tests that established the risk of 5G Base stations affecting the critical Radio Altimeters needed for bad weather landings as real.
After FAA issues a 2021 December 23 AD (Airworthiness Directive) about the danger, airlines must now decide what flights must be canceled during bad weather spells on affected airports.
Figure 1. The way the US 5G C-band base stations can affect a Radar Altimeter. Source: RTCA.
2022 Forecast: C919 EIS unlikely before 2023-24
Subscription Required
By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Jan. 17, 2022, © Leeham News: COMAC, the Chinese aerospace company developing the C919, suffered yet another setback last year.
It hoped to deliver the first aircraft, designed to compete with the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737-800/8, to China Eastern Airlines by year end. Not only didn’t this delivery take place, but the program is also only about 15% through the certification flight testing.
COMAC C919. Source: China Factor.
At this rate, certification, and delivery this year is questionable. LNA’s forecast for EIS is in 2023 or 2024.
COMAC’s other airplane, the regional jet ARJ21, landed its first order outside China (other than from lessor GECAS years ago).
Summary
- C919 is overweight, shortening range, and adversely affecting fuel economy.
- Commercial success of the C919 won’t be possible.
- ARJ21 lands first foreign operator, but it’s not an arm’s length deal.