Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 25. June 6, 2025
- New RISE powerplant benefits from decades of GE research and development June 5, 2025
- Engine makers emphasizing durability, reliability June 4, 2025
- Boeing CEO: Lessons learned are key to certification of 737-7/10 and 777X June 2, 2025
- Digital twin is a key to JetZero’s hopes for Blended Wing Body entry June 2, 2025
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 17. Detailed design
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
August 20, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through our second Design Refinement and how our Processes and Tools must be mature because the next step in the Post Launch phase is Detailed Design.
If the previous phases were about research and inspirational design work, where we measured, collated, and documented the overall design data for the aircraft, Detail Design is about a massive amount of work packages and execution.
Figure 1. The Design of wing structure in CATIA 5. Source: Youtube channel: Magic of Design Software.
The P2F freighters, 757-200P2F versus A321P2F.
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 19, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at domestic freighters based on the Boeing 757-200 and the Airbus A321. The 757-200 is a popular Passenger to Freighter (P2F) conversion, but as production of the 757 stopped in 2004, there is a limit to the conversion feed-stock for the model.
At the same time, older A321s are reaching market values where their cost enables competitive P2F conversions.
We use our performance model to check if the A321P2F is a good alternative to the 757-200P2F.
The first EFW A321P2F was delivered to Qantas in October 2020. Source: Qantas.
Summary
- The feed-stock for the Boeing 757-200 Passenger to Freighter conversions will diminish at some point in the future.
- The alternative in the same freight volume class is a converted A321. We check how well it fits the bill as an alternative to the 757-200.
An Update on Airbus, Boeing Orders at Risk
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
Aug. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: As a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and delays in the re-certification of the 737 MAX, Boeing lost a large number of 737 MAX orders in 2020. The majority of the cancellations were flagged as ASC 606 adjustments on Boeing Commercial Airplane’s website.
Since the Federal Aviaton Administraton lifted the 737 MAX grounding in November, the program has accumulated new orders from longtime Boeing customers, notably Alaska Airlines, Ryanair, Southwest Airlines, and United Airlines.
Unlike Boeing, Airbus isn’t subject to an accounting rule similar to the ASC 606 adjustments. Therefore, the European OEM does not break down the orders at risk of cancellation by the program. Airbus only discloses the nominal value of its total adjusted order book in its annual report.
LNA analyzed in July and November last year Airbus’ and Boeing’s order books to identify orders at risk and come up with an apples-to-apples comparison. We perform an update of this analysis with the latest order books from both OEMs.
Summary
- Difference between LNA and Boeing methodology
- Adjustments exacerbate traditional OEM strengths and weaknesses;
- An upcoming order book clean-up for older programs;
- Two programs with material adjustments;
- Some twin-aisle variants are less popular than others.
Pontifications: A330ceo P2F picks up steam
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 16, 2021, © Leeham News: Freighter conversions for the Airbus A330ceo are picking up steam as the inventory jumps following the COVID-19 pandemic.
There are 20 A330s that have been converted: 13 -300s and seven -200s. Package carrier DHL converted eight -300s, the most of any operator. It has contracts to convert 20 more, reports Cargo Facts.
The combined 40 P2Fs exceeds the number of A330-200Fs that was built fresh off the factory line—38.
Most observers consider the new A330-200F program a failure, although this may be a narrow view. While commercial sales were disappointing, the -200F was a companion program to the A330 Multi-Role Tanker Transport. There are so far 61 orders for the MRTT; as of last month, 48 were delivered. Looking at this as one program off the same platform, this means there were 99 orders to date.
Airbus and Lockheed Martin have joined to bid on the US Air Force contract for between 140-160 refueling tankers in the KC-Y competition that begins shortly. Boeing will offer the KC-46A, based on the 767-200ER platform. Lockheed last week announced it will rebrand the MRTT the LMXT.
Embraer delivers first positive quarterly result since 1Q2018, shows revised E3 turboprop
By Bjorn Fehrm
August 13, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Embraer presented strong 2Q2021 results today. It could deliver a quarterly net profit of $44m (-$119m), the first positive quarter since 1Q2018. Revenue for the quarter was up 110% at $1,131m versus $537m in 2Q2020.
The company delivered 14 airliners and 20 biz jets, up from 4 and 13 a year ago. The company now delivered guidance for 2021, with deliveries at 45-50 regional jets and 90-95 biz jets. Revenue lands at $4.0bn-$4.5bn with free cash flow at break-even to $150m.
Figure 1. The revised desing of the E3 turboprop. Source: Embraer.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 16. Post Launch.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
August 13, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we went through the Certification Application, one of the most important milestones in the Pre-Launch phase.
Now we assume we got a Product Launch approval from our board/Investors. We start looking at the work packages that meet us in the Post Launch phase.
Figure 1. The Program Plan for our Green 19 seater. Source: Leeham Co. Click to see in full scale.
HOTR: Lockheed Martin’s LMXT rebranding has lots of competition
By the Leeham News Team
Aug. 12, 2021, © Leeham News: Lockheed Martin’s rebranding of the Airbus A330 MRTT aerial refueling tanker has some competition that already uses the name: LMXT.
The UK band LMXT.
LNA’s background includes branding. Other than the obvious “LM” means Lockheed Martin, we couldn’t see where “XT” comes from.
“XT” is on a lot of cars. The full acronym is on a warehouse management system, solar storage, a solar tube battery and a car charger.
A government in Maryland uses it as shorthand for Legacy Mixed-Use Transit Oriented Zone. It’s used for something called Lively Middleclass Xenial Tolerant (we can’t figure this one out.)
But our favorite is the acronym stands for Little Mix Tribute Rock Band, a UK group.
LNA can’t wait to see the band’s logo show up as nose art on the airplane formerly known as the A330 MRTT.
The P2F freighters, 767-300ER versus A330-200 or -300?
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
August 12, 2021, © Leeham News: In our series about freighters, we now look at Cargo companies operating early Boeing 767-200 freighters that look at a replacement for these. Shall it be a 767-300ER or an Airbus A330-200 or -300 conversion freighter?
We use our performance model to understand their characteristics and operational efficiencies.
A Boeing 767 is converted to a freighter. Source: IAI Bedek.
Summary
- Both the 767-300ER and A330-200/-300 early passenger models will provide ample feed-stock for freighters going forward, as these reach sunset age and can be acquired for the low cost required for a P2F freighter.
- Which of these freighters are suitable for what type of freight? And what is their efficiency in such operations? We compare them using our performance model.
Exclusive: Airbus discusses A321F new-build program with customers
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
Aug. 9, 2021, © Leeham News: Call it Airbus’s attack on Boeing’s final frontier.
After an embarrassing failure with the new-build A330-200F and an ill-conceived A380F, Airbus last month launched the A350F.
Market sources tell LNA this time, Airbus may have a winner. The market sources also tell LNA Boeing, for once, is actually worried about a proposed Airbus freighter airplane.
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When announcing the program launch, Airbus didn’t reveal customers. Nor did officials reveal specifications, beyond saying payload will be “in excess of 90 tons.” But information obtained by LNA and analysis by our Bjorn Fehrm revealed the fundamentals in previous paywall articles. And, we know potential customers have seen the specifications under Non-Disclosure Agreements.
Airbus offers the A321P2F based on the A321ceo. It’s also discussing the possibility of a new A321neo-based, new-build freighter. Photo: Airbus.
It’s also unlikely the Airbus Board would have authorized the program launch without customers ready to go. LNA believes Airbus needed 50 orders to launch the program. With an installed base of combination carriers already operating the A350, these would be target launch customers.
Now, LNA can reveal, Airbus is talking with key customers about potentially offering a new-build A321neo freighter.
Pontifications: A deeper hole for the Boeing 737 MAX market share
By Scott Hamilton
Aug. 9, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing’s 737 MAX market share vs Airbus is in a deeper hole than may be generally realized.
Aviation Week last week complied a list of the top seven low-cost carrier airlines in Asia with orders for 90 or more A320s or 737 family members.
The data illustrates just how deep a hole Boeing is in.
LNA created market-share pie charts based on the numbers above to better illustrate the challenge. It’s not a pretty picture for Boeing.