Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part 11. The Program Plan.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam, and Andrew Telesca.
July 9, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Now that we have done the basic market research we should scope the program. To do this we need to understand what aircraft we will develop and to what certification rules.
Our market research tells us to develop a 19 seat aircraft that can operate as a passenger and/or cargo aircraft outside the US and as cargo aircraft in the US. This enables us to certify it to FAA Part 23 and the equivalent rules of other National Aviation Authorities where we want to sell the aircraft.
Figure 1. The new Cessna SkyCourier Cargo/19 seat utility airliner. Source: Cessna.
IATA update on COVID-19 and World Travel
By Bjorn Fehrm
July 8, 2021, © Leeham News: IATA’s half-year Global Media event finished today. The Director General Willy Walsh and SVP Operations Nick Careen briefed on travel trends, ramp-up bottlenecks, and IATA travel pass activities.
At present domestic travel is recovering fast, but international travel remains weak.
The true cost of Electric Aircraft. Part 2.
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we looked at the cost of running an electric 19 seat airliner based on energy stored in batteries. We found the energy costs were lower than for the equivalent turboprop aircraft, but when we add the maintenance costs for the batteries, the operating costs were higher than today’s 19 seat commuter.
This was under the assumption that the battery aircraft had the same energy consumption as today’s aircraft. We now run this check. The result is eye-opening.
Figure 1. Heart Aerospace ES-19 battery-based airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary
- Battery based aircraft weigh significantly more than jet fuel based ones. It increases their energy consumption.
- Last week’s findings were conditioned on the same energy consumption. This week’s analysis proofs this is not a valid assumption.
Here’s why China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers.
July 7, 2021, © Leeham News: China’s government policy of operating commercial aircraft that generally are no more than 12-15 years old means the carriers face a replacement bubble that the home market can’t possibly meet.
According to data reviewed by LNA, there are just 303 COMAC C919s on order. Delivery is supposed to begin this year with one airplane. Currently, the peak year for deliveries is 2027 with 55 aircraft scheduled.
There are about 1,116 Boeing 737 NGs built between 2008-2018 operated and stored by Chinese carriers. China has just 296 737 MAXes on order—a deficit of 820 aircraft needed for replacement of these aging airplanes. (Boeing’s website shows just 104 outstanding orders, but Chinese-owned lessors aren’t included in this tally.)
Exclusive: Mitsubishi ponders restarting CRJ production
By Scott Hamilton
July 6, 2021, © Leeham News: Mitsubishi is considering restarting production of the discontinued CRJ, LNA confirmed with multiple sources.
Mitsubishi Heavy Industries discontinued production with the completion of the last of the small backlog it acquired with the June 1, 2019, purchase of the program from the ailing Bombardier. The final 15 CRJ900s were completed during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Montreal Mirabel Airport production line was shut down. The tooling was removed and stored. The buildings were turned over to Airbus, which now uses them for A220 production.
Source: Bombardier.
“Our primary focus remains the support of the CRJ operating fleet,” said Ross Mitchell, vice president of Shared Services. “Clearly, the regional jet market is important to us, but we have made no commitment to move forward in this respect.”
Podcast: 10 Minutes About SSTs
Scott Hamilton and Pontifications are taking the day off.
July 5, 2021, © Leeham News: Development of small supersonic transports (SSTs) seemed, for a time, a fad. Three companies announced plans to develop an SST business jet with two of them expanding the concepts to be small passenger airliners, each with less than 100 seats.
Today, only one company appears remaining. Aerion collapsed recently for lack of funding. Boom remains, announcing a “commercial agreement” with United Airlines early this month for 15 Overture SSTs and options for 35 more. The agreement, however, is highly conditional.
LNA discussed the agreement in a previous 10 Minutes About podcast. Today’s 10 Minutes About is a technical discussion about designing an SST.
Asia-Pacific airline recovery held back by slow vaccination, border closures
Subscription Required
By Judson Rollins
Introduction
July 5, 2021, © Leeham News: The passenger air travel recovery from COVID-19 has been wildly uneven, even between neighboring countries. Most countries with large domestic markets have seen dramatic rebounds in passenger volumes, although yields have been held back by a continued slump in long-haul and business travel.
Aircraft parked at Hong Kong International Airport, with construction on a third runway in the background. Source: Bloomberg.
In the Asia-Pacific region, however, even short-haul international traffic has been disrupted by virus outbreaks, a painfully slow vaccine rollout, and a largely stagnant web of border closures.
Summary
- Much of Asia is well behind global average in the vaccine rollout.
- Domestic markets in China, Australia, and New Zealand are performing strongly.
- Border closures continue to cripple international travel.
- Many Asian countries are likely to stay closed well into 2022.
- Most Asian airlines are reporting slow progress toward capacity restoration.
Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of airliner development. Part10. What aircraft to develop.
By Bjorn Fehrm, Henry Tam and Andrew Telesca.
July 2, 2021, ©. Leeham News: It’s time to start our aircraft project, where we discuss aircraft development from preliminary planning to fleet support and look at how the certification rules influence our work.
The first part of any aircraft project should focus on understanding the market your project will enter. Our project idea is to develop a Green aircraft for the 19 seat passenger market.
Figure 1. Beech 1900D 19 seat feeder airliner. Source: Wikipedia.
Eviation announces firm configuration for battery-powered 9-seater
By Bryan Corliss
July 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Seattle-area electric aircraft builder Eviation revealed Thursday that it has reached firm design configuration for its battery-powered, nine-seater Alice aircraft.
The announcement – which typically would signify that Eviation designers have locked-in design features, so that suppliers can use their drawings to begin work on their components – is more of a formality, however.
Eviation Executive Chairman Roei Ganzarski said suppliers already have delivered shipsets for the first production Alice, and mechanics at the company’s Arlington, WA, plant have begun final assembly.
“The plane is being built as we speak,” Ganzarski said. The company is on track for a first flight before year’s end, he added.
The true cost of Electric Aircraft
Subscription Required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
July 1, 2021, © Leeham News: In our Friday Corners, we analyze the development challenges of aircraft. We will launch a concrete project Friday where we intend to develop a 19 seat airliner. To make it interesting, it will be a Green aircraft. We focus on the Certification issues in the Corner series.
To complement it, we here look at the operating cost of a battery-based electric airliner, as there are costs that are often not presented to the public in the marketing of these alternatives. The operational costs for the huge batteries are too often forgotten.
Figure 1. Heart Aerospace ES-19 battery based airliner. Source: Heart Aerospace.
Summary
- Electric aircraft using batteries as energy stores are proposed for extreme short-range flights (below 200nm). The short flights shall make the weight of the batteries needed bearable.
- One advantage of these aircraft compared to today’s turboprops shall be their lower energy and maintenance costs. While this is true as long as we don’t count the batteries, including those in the maintenance costs changes the equation.