Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Regional Jet Retirements
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 22, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, LNA analyzed the narrowbody aircraft retirements. We now turn our attention to the regional jet market.
LNA analyzes retirement prospects for Embraer’s E-Jet and ERJ, the ex-Bombardier CRJ100/200 and CRJ700, Fokker 70/100, BAe 146/Avro RJ, Sukhoi Superjet 100, and Comac ARJ21.
Summary
- Four families dominate the market;
- Heavy geographical concentration;
- Challenges for old and small regional jets;
- Retirement trends in the two largest regions;
- Regional breakdown for the oldest types in service.
Pontifications: Deferrals, bankruptcies continue; order recovery far off
By Scott Hamilton
June 22, 2020, © Leeham News: Although more passengers are flowing through airports and airlines are adding back service, airplane order deferrals continue.
Airline bankruptcies do, too.
LEVEL’s short haul operation went into bankruptcy last week. LATAM Argentina ceased operations. Lufthansa said it may seek administration if shareholders don’t agree to the government bailout negotiated by the airline.
New orders dried up. And, so far, there is no telling when there might be some placed.
Boeing announced just a handful of new orders last month. Airbus didn’t announce any orders in May.
Bjorn’s Corner: Do I get COVID in airline cabins? Part 7. Effects of prevention.
By Bjorn Fehrm
June 19, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our Corner series about flying during the COVID-19 pandemic, we look at opening up traveling and how re-emerging infection clusters can be handled.
With a four-month pandemic history, several studies now detail what effects different prevention actions have. Once the general spreading of the virus is under control in a country, authorities can then use these tools to engage in point actions rather than general lockdowns.
Figure 1. The EU travel app. Source: European Union.
Restoring capacity with the A330ceo or A330neo, Part 1
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 18, 2020, © Leeham News: The Airbus A330-200 has been a commercial success, with 642 deliveries since 1998. The Boeing 777-300ER and Airbus A330-300 are the only twin-aisle variants with more deliveries than the A330-200.
Despite the A330-200 commercial success, its successor, the A330-800, isn’t selling well. The variant officially has 14 orders: eight from Kuwait Airways, two from Uganda Airlines, and four unidentified. Air Greenland did not firm its commitment for a single unit yet. The A330-900 has 319 firm orders.
Airbus did not deliver a single A330neo since February due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Once passenger demand recovers, airlines will have the option to receive delivery of A330neos on relatively short notice. Carriers will weigh the benefits of taking delivery of new A330neos, keep their older A330ceos flying, or source the latter from lessors.
We will compare the Economic performance of both A330ceo and A330neo variants with our aircraft evaluation model. We will start with the A330-200 and A330-800.
Summary
- A330-200 impact on market after entry into service;
- Capitalizing on Dreamliner delays;
- Twin-aisle market slowdown before COVID-19 outbreak;
- A330-800 suitability for a route network.
Looking ahead for 2020 and 2030 decades: Airbus
First in a series of reports.
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By Scott Hamilton and Vincent Valery
June 17, 2020, © Leeham News: Airbus was riding high in February.
The A321XLR was a clear winner. An important order was won from United Airlines, up to then an exclusive Boeing narrowbody customer. American Airlines selected the XLR. An order was expected from Delta Air Lines.
Each order was another that made it impossible for Boeing to launch the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA).
In one of his first actions, Boeing CEO David Calhoun, taking office Jan. 13, put the NMA on indefinite hold, pending a complete review of Boeing’s product strategy.
The Boeing 737 MAX remained grounded by regulators, with no return to service in sight.
The Airbus A321XLR. This 9-hour capable airplane helps fragment routes–and soften demand for widebody aircraft. Source: Airbus.
Things couldn’t be going better for Airbus.
And then in mid-March, the COVID crisis became a global pandemic. Air transportation fell up to 95%. Airlines required government bailouts. Airbus CEO Guillaume Faury said the very existence of Airbus was threatened.
Summary
- COVID’s impact.
- A320 family ‘s commanding lead over Boeing.
- A220 commands low-end of single-aisle sector.
- A330neo is the weak link.
- Looking ahead in product strategy.
Embraer’s Slattery named CEO of GE Aviation
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2020, © Leeham News: John Slattery, the CEO of Embraer Commercial Aviation, was named CEO of GE Aviation, it was announced today.
John Slattery
Arjan Meijer is the new President and CEO succeeding Slattery. Slattery succeeds David Joyce, who is retiring. Slattery’s appointment is effective July 13.
Slattery devoted much of the last year trying to win approval of the proposed Boeing-Embraer joint venture, Boeing Brasil-Commercial. Boeing terminated the agreement April 25, claiming Embraer failed to meet all required terms and conditions. Embraer claims it met the conditions. Both took the dispute to arbitration.
Slattery had been designated CEO of Boeing Brasil. After the deal’s collapse, his departure from Embraer was expected.
Narrowbody Aircraft Retirements
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By Vincent Valery
Introduction
June 15, 2020, © Leeham News: Last week, LNA analyzed the accelerating widebody fleet streamlining by airlines. We now turn our attention to the narrowbody market.
Numerous airlines, including American and Lufthansa, announced the early retirement of single-aisle aircraft since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak. However, the retirement of entire narrowbody types has been a rarer occurrence among carriers.
LNA analyzes retirement prospects for Airbus A320, Boeing 737, 757, and MD80/90/717 family aircraft.
Summary
- A market dominated by two types;
- More variety among older aircraft in service;
- Streamlining on core narrowbody fleets;
- Regional breakdown for the oldest types in service.
Pontifications: bleak near- to mid-term future for Rolls-Royce engine unit
By Scott Hamilton
June 15, 2020, © Leeham News: The jet engine division of Rolls-Royce faces an uncertain future because of its own problems, exacerbated by the impact of COVID-19 on commercial airlines.
Beset by problems with its Trent 1000, Boeing 787 engine, hampered by a huge error in judgment to withdraw from a joint venture with Pratt & Whitney, beset by the premature termination of the Airbus A380 program and now facing a long-term impact of the coronavirus crisis, Rolls is an engine maker with few opportunities.
Bjorn’s Corner: Do I get COVID in airline cabins? Part 6.
June 12, 2020, ©. Leeham News: In our Corner series about flying during the COVID-19 pandemic, we now look at how different worldwide organizations are engaged to understand the COVID-19 pandemic and how to handle it in an air transport context.
Based on input from the industry stakeholders, the organizations have in the last weeks issued plans for the rebuild of the global air transport system.
Pandemic and air transport. From ICAO’s home page.
Boeing tells Spirit to pause 737 MAX fuselage production
June 11, 2020, © Leeham News: Spirit Aerosystems, maker of the Boeing 737 fuselages, yesterday said it will lay off 900 workers on the MAX line 
for three weeks.
“Spirit received a letter from Boeing directing Spirit to pause additional work on four 737 MAX shipsets and avoid starting production on 16 737 MAX shipsets to be delivered in 2020, until otherwise directed by Boeing,” the supplier said in a press release.
“Based on the information in the letter, subsequent correspondence from Boeing dated June 9, 2020, and Spirit’s discussions with Boeing regarding 2020 737 MAX production, Spirit believes there will be a reduction to Spirit’s previously disclosed 2020 737 MAX production plan of 125 shipsets,” the company said.
Spirit also is furloughing workers at two locations in Oklahoma.