Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
MCAS upgrade requires half-hour of pilot training
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Introduction
March 28, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing 737 MAX pilots learning about the revised software upgrade to the Maneuvering Characteristics 
Augmentation System (MCAS) will need a half hour of computer-based training (CBT), the company told the media yesterday in a briefing.
Pilots of the 737 NG who have not yet made the transition to the MAX also have to be trained on the MCAS now. Boeing did not specify if this will take longer than those already trained on the MAX.
- Related article: Boeing presents MCAS software fix details
Summary
- No estimate to MAX return to service.
- Waiting for investigations of the crashes.
- More information for pilots.
Boeing presents MCAS fix to pilots, regulators and media
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 27, 2018, © Leeham News.: Boeing presented the software fix to the MCAS problem in a press briefing ahead of meeting 200 Pilots and Regulators in Seattle today for a briefing around the 737 MAX update.
Here is what Boeing presented in its briefing to media:
Figure 1. Pilot’s Primary Flight Display with modifications after the software update. Source: Wikipedia and Leeham Co.
Canada’s Harbour Air to fit electric engines on its plane
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Introduction
By Bryan Corliss
March 26, 2019, © Leeham News: A Seattle-area engine manufacturer today will announce a significant step toward actually getting an electric-powered passenger aircraft off the ground.
The company, MagniX, is set to announce a partnership with Canada’s Harbour Air to retrofit its fleet of 33 piston-powered de Havilland Beavers, Otters and Twin Otters with 750 hp electric engines.
Harbour Air will equip its fleet of 33 aircraft, including the de Havilland Twin Otter, with electric engines. Source: harbour Air.
The first electric-powered flight – in a six-passenger Beaver – will take place before the end of 2019, according to MagniX CEO Roei Ganzarski. MagniX and the Vancouver-based airline plan to pursue a supplemental type certificate for the planes, with a goal of 2021 for EIS.
Modifications will take place at a plant in Vancouver, a spokeswoman said.
Summary
- Overcoming skepticism.
- Tested engine, proven airframe.
- Short-haul routes.
Pontifications: Boeing NewCo exec, Slattery, faces challenges
By Scott Hamilton
- Our Monday paywall will appear at 6am Tuesday, PDT.
March 25, 2019, © Leeham News: Boeing last week announced the executive leadership for the joint venture with Embraer, the as-yet unnamed company that is generically called NewCo.
Separately, Embraer announced the departure at the end of next month of Embraer’s parent CEO, Paulo Cesar, a move that was expected.
Cesar was with Embraer for 22 years in various positions. We was president and CEO of EMB’s Commercial Aviation division and launched the E2 program in 2013.
Bjorn’s Corner: Why did Ethiopian Airlines ET302 and Lion Air JT610 crash?
By Bjorn Fehrm
March 22, 2019, ©. Leeham News: Last week we covered what we knew about the Ethiopian Airlines Flight 302 crash.
In the passing week, more facts have been revealed. We also have the first lead why both the Lion Air and Ethiopian Airlines flights finally dived to the ground.
Figure 1. The FR24 speed curve of the ET302 flight. Source: FlightRadar24.
Congestion costs billions, but airlines show little concern
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Introduction
March 21, 2019, © Leeham News: There are many estimates for how much flight delays and disruptions cost airlines and passengers. But everyone agrees the total number is big—possibly more than $1bn for each major US airline each year.
In 2017, delays cost airlines and passengers $26.6bn, according to the FAA/Nextor estimate. That total includes direct cost to airlines and travelers, lost demand and indirect costs. Congestion at the three major airports serving New York City directly cost air carriers an estimated $834m a year, according to a 2009 report.
Chicago O’Hare Airport at 7pm, Sunday, March 17, 2019. Source: FlightRadar24.
Yet despite the high cost, flight on-time statistics are basically where they were 20 years ago. Moreover, there are no discernible positive trends in the data collected by the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics.
Of course, airlines take steps to decrease or limit flight delays, and, of course, some things, such as severe weather, are out of anyone’s control.
At the same time, airlines have shown little interest in pushing for low-cost solutions to decreasing system-wide congestion. There is no clear or easy explanations for carrier’s lack of motivation. However, interviews with current and former airline executives, researchers and others highlighted a few key factors.
Summary
- Reducing air traffic congestion is a huge, hairy beast of a problem.
- That complexity makes it difficult to see system-based approaches.
- Airlines are concerned that competitors could benefit more from reduced congestion.
Boeing didn’t want to re-engine the 737–but had design standing by
March 20, 2019, © Leeham News: With nearly 400 Boeing 737 MAXes grounded across the globe, few will remember that Boeing didn’t really want to do the MAX.
Officials in 2010-2011 engineered the MAX as a fallback airplane in case its hand was forced by Airbus as it first pondered and then launched the A320neo.
Jim Albaugh, then president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes, didn’t want to re-engine the 737. He wanted a new airplane. Seattle Times photo.
The president of Boeing Commercial Airplanes at the time, Jim Albaugh, and the head of the 737 program then, Mike Bair, talked down the thought of re-engining the 737 even as it was developed. Albaugh wanted a new, clean sheet airplane to replace the 737.
When Airbus was about to land American Airlines with a huge order for the A320 family, both the ceo and neo, Boeing’s hand was forced. Within 48 hours, Jim McNerney, Albaugh’s boss, made the decision to go forward with what would become the MAX.
LNA dug into its archives for recorded interviews, transcripts and events with Albaugh and Bair. What follows paints the picture of Boeing’s view at the time about the 737 re-engining. LNA also spoke last year with a former Boeing engineer who worked on the MAX program. This interview was before the Lion Air crash in October.
Pontifications: Fluid, dynamic events upend MAX story
Special Edition
By Scott Hamilton
March 20, 2019, © Leeham Co: I’ve been covering or employed in commercial aviation since 1979. I’m an aviation historian buff.
I’ve read all about the groundings of the Douglas DC-6, Lockheed Constellation, Martin 202 and de Havilland Comet. I read about how the Federal Aviation Administration didn’t ground the Lockheed Electra, choosing operating restrictions instead.
I lived through the grounding of the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and Boeing 787. As a reporter, I walked through the debris of the American Airlines DC-10 crash that led to the grounding. I went to the crash scene of the Delta Air Lines Boeing 727 at D/FW Airport and I’ve covered many, many crashes through reporting and as a commentator.
I’ve never seen anything evolve in air accidents as has evolved in the Boeing 737 MAX investigations.
Impact to Boeing for MAX grounding assessed
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Introduction
March 19, 2019, © Leeham News: The impact of the grounding of the 737 MAX to Boeing will hurt, but the effect likely will be short term.
The most recent grounding of an airliner was the 2013 grounding of the 787. This cost Boeing an estimated $500m over the course of the three month
grounding. A hardware fix had to be designed to contain battery fires. Installation in the field for 50 aircraft was required. Compensation to operators was necessary.
There are more than 370 MAXes grounded. Norwegian Airlines and Spice Jet already publicly said they will demand compensation. Deliveries are suspended.
This grounding should be much shorter than was the 787.
Summary
- MAX fix was already in the works.
- Some say US government shutdown delayed software fix at least five weeks.
- Implementing software upgrade will be quick.
- Grounding estimated by LNA to be six weeks max.
- MAX grounding cost estimated $550m over several years.
- Short term revenue shift $11bn to later in the year.
Pontifications: 737 MAX events remind of Lockheed Electra story
By Scott Hamilton
March 18, 2019, © Leeham News: There’s a saying that history repeats itself.
When it comes to the crisis of the Boeing 737 MAX, I’m reminded of the crisis Lockheed faced in 1959-1960 when the Electra propjet crashed in September and the following March, killing all aboard both airplanes.
The Electra entered service Jan. 12, 1959, with Eastern Airlines. It was considered a pilot’s airplane. Coming off decades of piston engine aircraft and early in the jet age, the Electra was the only airplane that was over-powered, piston or jet. Timing, however, was poor and crashes soon overtook the euphoria.