Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
HOTR: Boeing’s backlog market share vs Airbus falls below 40%
By the Leeham News Team
July 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Six months into 2021, Boeing is delivering 737 MAXes, clearing MAX inventory, and taking orders.
Airbus isn’t matching Boeing orders for the A320 family, so far. But as the industry struggles to return to normal, it’s worth taking a six month look at how Airbus and Boeing compare.
In terms of total backlog, Airbus has a 62% market share vs. Boeing’s 38% share.
This includes all single- and twin-aisle aircraft. It also includes freighters—a Boeing exclusive right now—and air force tankers, where Boeing also has an advantage.
Airbus has a 65% share of the single-aisle backlog vs Boeing’s 35% share. Airbus includes the A220 and A320 families.
Boeing has a slim lead in the wide-body sector, boosted by its exclusive backlog in freighters and the larger backlog for the KC-46A tanker vs the A330 MRTT: 52% to 48%.
Boeing’s backlog is adjusted for the accounting rule ASC 606, which eliminates orders no longer considered firm but which aren’t canceled. Airbus doesn’t publish the European equivalent of iffy orders, so the market share is somewhat skewed. Regardless, it isn’t an encouraging picture for Boeing.
Pontifications: The reshaped commercial aviation sector
By Scott Hamilton
July 12, 2021, © Leeham News: With Washington State and the US open for business following nearly 18 months of COVID-pandemic shut-down, there is a lot of optimism in commercial aviation.
In the US, airline passenger traffic headcounts are matching or exceeding pre-pandemic TSA screening numbers. Airlines are placing orders with Airbus, Boeing and even Embraer in slowly increasing frequency.
The supply chain to these three OEMs looks forward to a return to previous production rates.
It’s great to see and even feel this optimism. But the recovery will nevertheless be a slow if steady incline.
Here’s why China needs Boeing as much as Boeing needs China
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Now open to all readers.
July 7, 2021, © Leeham News: China’s government policy of operating commercial aircraft that generally are no more than 12-15 years old means the carriers face a replacement bubble that the home market can’t possibly meet.
According to data reviewed by LNA, there are just 303 COMAC C919s on order. Delivery is supposed to begin this year with one airplane. Currently, the peak year for deliveries is 2027 with 55 aircraft scheduled.
There are about 1,116 Boeing 737 NGs built between 2008-2018 operated and stored by Chinese carriers. China has just 296 737 MAXes on order—a deficit of 820 aircraft needed for replacement of these aging airplanes. (Boeing’s website shows just 104 outstanding orders, but Chinese-owned lessors aren’t included in this tally.)
Podcast: 10 Minutes About Airbus’ Design and Production transformation
June 30, 2021 © Leeham News: Yesterday’s 10 Minutes About discussed Boeing’s drive toward a dramatic new way to design and produce new airplanes. Today’s 10 Minutes About looks at how Airbus is approaching the same challenge.
United orders 200 Boeing 737 MAXes, 70 Airbus A321neos
By the Leeham News Team
June 29, 2021, © Leeham News: United Airlines today announced its order for 200 Boeing 737 MAXes and 70 Airbus A321neos.
The size and split of the order were first reported by Airfinance Journal.
Source: United Airlines
The deal is the carrier’s largest, as well as the industry’s largest “in a decade.”* The order is for 50 737 MAX 8s, 150 737 MAX 10s and 70 A321neos. “United will replace older, smaller mainline jets and at least 200 single-class regional jets with larger aircraft,” the airline said.
Pontifications: The WTO Airbus/Boeing standstill and pursuing China
June 28, 2021, © Leeham News: The US and European Union agreed on June 15 to a standstill in the 17-year old trade dispute over illegal subsidies to Airbus and Boeing.
The World Trade Organization (WTO) found each violated international rules. By the time all was said and done, the US was authorized to levy tariffs on $7.5bn worth of European goods. The EU received authorization to levy tariffs on $4bn of US goods.
Tariffs on goods went beyond Airbus and Boeing products. But it was 15% tariffs on Airbus planes imported into the US and Boeing planes imported into the EU that were the highest-profile and most costly.
Despite initial reports in some uninformed media that the long-running dispute was “resolved,” in fact, only a standstill was agreed. The US and EU now have five years to negotiate a permanent settlement to Airbus’ “reimbursable launch aid” and Boeing’s benefits from tax breaks and NASA.
The two sides also agreed to put China’s commercial aerospace industry in the crosshairs.
HOTR: USAF prepares for new tanker competition, pitting Lockheed Martin/Airbus and Boeing against each other
By the Leeham News Team
June 22, 2021, © Leeham News: The US Air Force appears to be preparing a new round of competition for the next phase of its aerial refueling tanker recapitalization.
The first, KC-X, took more than 10 years to award a contract that didn’t get overturned. Boeing initially was awarded a lease deal in 2001 that was canceled in the wake of a scandal that sent two Boeing officers to jail and led to the resignation of CEO Phil Condit.
Round two pitted Boeing against Northrop Grumman and EADS, which was the name of the parent of Airbus’ commercial unit. Northrop won, but this award was overturned when USAF improprieties were revealed in the debriefing.
Round three pitted Boeing against EADS alone after Northrop bowed out. Boeing won this contract with a price 10% below EADS, which didn’t contest the decision. Boeing since has written off about $5bn on the KC-46A tanker, which still doesn’t work as required and which was delivered nearly two years late.
Related stories:
Freighter conversion will absorb some excess widebody supply – but not all
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By Judson Rollins
Introduction
June 17, 2021, © Leeham News: A key question hanging over the used widebody market is what percentage of available aircraft could be converted into freighters.
Indeed, existing passenger-to-freighter (P2F) conversion providers are ramping up capacity and new ones are coming online. However, much of the P2F capacity growth is focused on converting used 737s and A320-family aircraft.
Airbus and Boeing foresee a market for 1,500-1,600 conversions over the next 20 years. While Boeing doesn’t break out its forecast between single-aisle and widebody aircraft, Airbus believes 670 of these will be widebodies.
Conversion work at Israel’s IAI on the first 777-300ER P2F. Source: IAI via Cargo Facts.
In this analysis, LNA explores the size of the market, key providers, conversion capacity, and likely buyers of converted aircraft.
Summary
- Nearly 2,000 widebodies are in storage or coming off lease by 2030.
- New-build freighters will go to more established operators, while P2Fs are preferred by operators wishing to minimize capital costs.
- At current production rates, up to 400 widebodies could be converted by 2030.
- Early-production 787s, A350s are less likely to be converted.
Airbus program update tomorrow: what will officials reveal?
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By Scott Hamilton
Introduction
June 14, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus will provide a commercial program update tomorrow in Toulouse.
Will the Next Boeing Airplane be like the 757 with a composite new wing and new engines? Boeing photo.
But will officials announce Authority to Offer (ATO) an A350 freighter for sale?
Will they formally acknowledge development of an “A322”?
There is a plethora of articles, including LNA, in recent weeks discussed the prospect of Airbus launching an A350F this year. Potential customers have seen presentations from Airbus. Boeing’s overwhelming dominance in freighters is under threat.
If Airbus announces ATO tomorrow, Boeing may be forced to take its 777-8F concept out of mothballs. Boeing suspended development of the 777-8 and -8F during the 737 MAX and pandemic crises.
Then there is the prospect of the long-talked about “A322.”
This airplane, if launched, will have a new composite wing, more powerful engines and up to 24 more passengers. The wing is called the Wing of Tomorrow and has been under development for years.
If Airbus launches the A322, which also has a working name of A321 Plus Plus, Boeing will find it very tough to build a business case for its Next Boeing Airplane (NBA). The most recent iteration seems to be basically a reinvention of the 757-200/300: a metallic fuselage with a composite wing and new engines.
Summary
- Airbus now has the leadership role held by Boeing for decades, says the industry’s most influential executive.
- What does the Next Boeing Airplane look like?
- Airbus thinks it can match the NBA with an A322 for a lot less money to the customer.
- But will airlines want a 2025 technology or be satisfied with a makeover for an Airbus with roots in 1980s technology?
Boeing’s CEO says the next airplane won’t be a response to just the Airbus A321XLR. Airbus photo.
Pontifications: Qatar, United, Boom, Airbus and Aerion
By Scott Hamilton
June 7, 2021, © Leeham News: It’s been a busy couple of weeks in commercial aviation, with several reports last week alone.
- Qatar Airways expresses interest in Boeing 777X-F and Airbus A350F.
- United Airlines announces a “commercial agreement” with Boom Supersonic to purchase 15 Overture jets and option 35.
- Boeing exploring reinventing the 757.
- Airbus moves toward a new wing for A320 family.
- Aerion Aviation terminates program, shuts down. May 21.
Some of these reports were new and interesting Others were over-hyped and fluff.
Let’s run them down.