Airbus’ production plans

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By Vincent Valery

Introduction  

Feb. 15, 2021, © Leeham News: LNA wrote last month an article about Boeing’s latest production plans for future years. Airbus announced updated production plans on Jan. 21.

Airbus’ latest production plans call for a shallower increase in A320 production rates than envisioned earlier due to the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The A220 production rate will go back to five per month, while twin-aisle rates will stay flat for the foreseeable future. Airbus postponed an envisioned A350 production rate hike while predicting a return to pre-COVID demand levels by 2023 to 2025.

These updated delivery rates reflect customer’s delivery preferences. Ahead of Airbus’ earnings release on Feb. 18, LNA analyses the revised delivery schedule for coming years on the four major commercial programs.

Summary
  • Some A220 delays;
  • Slight A320 adjustments;
  • Lower for longer on twin-aisle programs;
  • Near-term delivery concerns on one program.

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The A350, Part 5: The A350-900 versus 777-200ER

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By Bjorn Fehrm

Introduction  

February 11, 2021, © Leeham News: Last week, we started analyzing the main member of the Airbus A350 family, the A350-900. It’s the design center for the A350 family and has so far 747 orders, of which 354 are delivered.

Over 1,000 Boeing 777 airliners in the market need replacement, and the A350-900 targets about half of these, the 777-200 and -200ER. Delta is one airline that started the switch from 777-200ER to A350-900. How much does Delta stand to gain?

Summary
  • The 777-200ER broke the ground for oceanic twin-engine flights. It offered an improved economy on trans-oceanic routes.
  • Airliner technology advanced for the 18 years younger A350-900, spurred on by Boeing’s technical leaps with the 787 Dreamliner.
  • As the A350-900 employed these gains in the 777-200ER size class, it does to the 777-200ER what it did to Airbus A340-300, it wins the economy race hands down. Read more

Pontifications: Boeing’s right direction, but don’t get ahead of reality

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing appears to be heading in the right direction: launch a new airplane program to take care of its 737 MAX product weakness. And do something different by pursuing the “NMA Lite” concept: a twin-aisle, three-member family starting at ~185 seats through ~250 seat and up to 5,000nm in range.

But don’t get ahead of ourselves on the NMA Lite. There are a lot of Ts to cross and i’s to dot.

And anything can change between now and a concerted effort to survey customers, prepare the supply chain and ask the Boeing Board for Authority to Offer the NMA Lite for sale.

Importantly, a three member family dramatically expands the potential market. Publicly, Boeing said the market for the NMA is about 4,000. Internally, officials knew it was more like 2,100—with Airbus capturing perhaps half.

With a third member, demand increases by roughly 7,000.

It’s tough to make a business case for 1,050 airplanes. It’s much easier for 4,550.

Still, this is the best news I’ve seen come out of Boeing in years. Even pre-dating the MAX ground. And pre-dating the COVID pandemic.

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The world of diminishing returns: challenges Boeing faces

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By the Leeham News Team

Introduction

Feb. 8, 2021, © Leeham News: Boeing faces a dilemma of Solomonic proportion.

Which direction should it extend its product offerings?

With the suspension a year ago of the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA) project by incoming CEO David Calhoun, Boeing’s future airplane strategy was upended.

Some Internet pundits said Boeing needed a clean-sheet replacement for the 737. Others said it needs to be a 757/NMA sized vehicle.

Last week, Aviation Week reported Boeing appears to now be headed in the direction of a three-member “NMA Lite” family. LNA outlined this approach last June. Feb. 3’s LNA post has more detail.

While Boeing faces near-term decisions, the challenges go well beyond launching a new airplane and the new engines required to power it.

Summary
  • Advances of diminishing returns.
  • Staying within the ICAO box.
  • Taking the fight to the ground.

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Bjorn’s Corner: The challenges of hydrogen. Part 23. Hydrogen fuel cells

By Bjorn Fehrm

February 5, 2021, ©. Leeham News: Last week, we started the discussion around fuel cells as a source of electric energy in airliners. We went through the principle and asked some vital questions.

Now we look at different types of fuel cells and for what applications these are suited.

Figure 1. The principle of a hydrogen fuel cell. Source: Airbus.

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The A350, Part 4, A350-900

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By Vincent Valery

Introduction  

Feb. 4, 2021, © Leeham News: After comparing the rejected Airbus A350-800 and its replacement A330-900, we now turn our attention to the main A350 variant, the -900. It was the main development aircraft and the first to enter service.

Summary
  • Smooth development and entry into service;
  • Strong commercial success;
  • Post-pandemic prospects;
  • An apparent target aircraft.

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Finally, Boeing moves in the right direction

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 3, 2021, © Leeham News: At long last, Boeing seems to be moving in the right direction on its next new airplane.

Aviation Week reported this week Boeing appears to be developing a third member of the New Midmarket Airplane (NMA), dubbed the NMA-5X. The NMA-5X is sized directly across from the Airbus A321neo family. It’s the third member of the NMA family that was missing throughout Boeing’s struggles to form a business model for the NMA.

A three-member NMA Lite family is needed for Boeing. Clockwise, they are the NMA-5, the NMA-6 and the NMA-7. Source: Leeham News.

The current concept is also what Boeing wanted to do in 2011 when Airbus forced its hand with the huge American Airlines order for the A319/321ceo/neo. Boeing launched the 737 MAX instead.

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Podcast: 10 Minutes About the Airbus A330neo

Feb. 3, 2021, © Leeham News: The Airbus A330neo is technically a good airplane. But sales never took off. There are only 331 orders for the airplane and easily more than 100 are iffy. Airbus publicly said there was potential for 1,000 orders when it launched the program. Why hasn’t the neo taken off any better? This week’s 10 Minutes About the A330neo explains why.

Airbus, Boeing diverge on technology for next new airplane

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By Scott Hamilton

Introduction

Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Airbus and Boeing are diverging on paths for a sustainable, reduced emissions strategy for the next new airplanes.

The stakes are high: billions of dollars in sales, dramatic shifts protecting the environment and which company will be dominate for decades to come.

Source: Boeing

Airbus committed to bringing to market a zero-emissions, hydrogen-powered aircraft by the middle of the next decade. A dramatic shift in supporting infrastructure is needed to support innovating new technology.

Boeing is taking a more conservative approach, but one that won’t require costly changes to the infrastructure or major changes to airplane design. Instead, Boeing is betting on delivering airliners by 2030 that can use 100% sustainable fuels.

Summary

  • Boeing believes hydrogen technology is farther away than Airbus thinks.
  • Airbus wants a hydrogen-fueled airplane in service by 2035.
  • Boeing committed to a 100% sustainably-fueled airplane by 2030.
  • Who’s right is a multi-billion dollar bet.

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Pontifications: Unraveling the numbers

By Scott Hamilton

Feb. 1, 2021, © Leeham News: Understanding the real market demand for an airplane sector is a complicated thing.

What Airbus and Boeing say the market is for an airplane sometimes is a matter of what they don’t say.

On the Jan. 27 earnings call, Boeing set the program accounting for the 777X at 350 airplanes. This number declined from 400. Simultaneously, Boeing took a whopping $6.5bn forward loss on the program. (Not all is attributed to the accounting block.)

Later in the same call, CEO David Calhoun said, “Across the total widebody market of more than 8,000 projected deliveries over the next two decades, we see replacement demand for over 1,500 large widebody airplanes which are well suited for the 777X.”

Some interpreted this to mean that Boeing expects to sell 1,500 777Xs.

Well, not really.

So, let’s unravel these numbers and what “market demand” or “replacement demand” means. Everything discussed below applies equally to Airbus or Boeing.

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