Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Demand supports rate 70/mo for A320, 737
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Introduction
May 3, 2018, © Leeham Co.: With the supply chain confirming last Thursday that Airbus and Boeing are exploring single-aisle production rates of 70/mo, Airbus confirmed it was doing so during its Friday earnings call.
Boeing continues to be ambiguous, saying only there is “upward pressure” on its 737 production rates.
The supply chain, notably the engine OEMs, already has heartburn over the current rate of 60/mo and 52/mo for the A320 and 737 families respectively.
Summary
- Engine makers CFM and Pratt & Whitney continue to have technical and production issues.
- Airbus and Boeing each have “gliders,” though Boeing’s is a handful vs the dozens at Airbus.
- CFM’s partner, Safran, cautions against rate 70.
Production rates will be among the topics at the Southeast Aerospace & Defence Conference next month in Mobile (AL). Click here for more information.
India’s Spicejet big turnaround
Boeing 737-8. Boeing photo.
May 2, 2018, © Leeham News: Spicejet, the Indian low-cost airline, in its 2016-2017 Annual Report (to March 31) didn’t mince words or try to parse over its troubled history:
“Back after near shutdown. Restoring confidence. Organisational restructuring. Rising crude prices.Stiff competition. Legacy issues. We were determined to transform.”
These words are on the first page of the Annual Report.
Name another airline that is so up-front, open and candid about its past turmoil.
Southwest accelerates 737-700 retirements
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Introduction
April 30, 2018, © Leeham News: Southwest Airlines announced orders 80 Boeing 737-8s so far this year and market intelligence indicates the carrier may be far from done.
Another 60 orders may come during the year, though this trend could slow, market intelligence indicates.
The carrier is accelerating fleet retirements of its Boeing 737-700s with the orders. The latest round last week now makes Southwest the largest single customer for the MAX.
Significantly, the orders represent an up-gauging to the 8 MAX from the -700. The similarly-sized, slow-selling 737-7 MAX, of which Southwest is one of only four identified customers, is being bypassed. Southwest previously deferred delivery of 23 7 MAXes four years.
Click on image to enlarge.
Southwest historically operated its 737s for at least 25 years. Some 737-300s were 28 years old by the time they were retired and stored, according to the Airfinance Journal Fleet Tracker.
Summary
- Strong economic business case cited to retire 737-700s.
- 40 737-700s to be retired with concurrent deliveries.
- Retirements occurring at earlier age.
- Aging aircraft issues exist.
32 Boeing 787s are AOG due to Rolls-Royce Trent issues; number will climb
April 27, 2018 © Leeham Co.: There are 32 Boeing 787s grounded because of problems with the Rolls-Royce Trent 1000-C engines and the number will rise “a bit,” LNC has confirmed.
The US Federal Aviation Administration and Europe’s EASA this month issued Airworthiness Directives that limit ETOPS to 140 or even 60 minutes from the 330 minutes certified originally.
A Royal Brunei Boeing 787 sat engineless April 12 at Paine Field, awaiting Rolls-Royce powerplants. Photo by Jennifer Schuld.
Following the AD and inspections, the number of grounded aircraft rose from 15-20.
The limitations balloon costs on trans-ocean flights and render trans-polar flights impossible.
Airbus’ Ultra Long Range A350 starts flight test
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
April 26, 2018, © Leeham News: Airbus Ultra Long-Range version of the A350-900 took off for the first time Monday. The aircraft will conduct a short flight test program before being painted in Singapore Airlines’ colours and handed over after the summer.
Airbus touts the A350-900URL as an aircraft which can fly ultra-long routes with flight times up to 20 hours and distances of 9,700nm. So, what so different with this aircraft to the normal A350-900? We use our performance model to show where the differences are.
Summary:
- The A350-900URL has got a higher fuel capacity to extend its range when used as an Ultra Long Range aircraft when loaded with fewer than 250 passengers.
- At the passenger counts where Singapore Airlines will operate the aircraft, the additional range is about 1,000nm.
- For normal operations, there would be no gains.
Is Long-Haul LCC viable? Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 24, 2018, © Leeham News: In the third article about Long-Haul LCC and if it’s a viable business, we described the operational costs for typical aircraft used by a Long-Haul LCC.
We now look at the revenue side of the equation, including how much revenue we need to cover our costs and what variations we have over the year.
Boeing faces 787 deliveries slow down with Rolls-Royce problems; earnings call April 25
April 21, 2018 © Leeham News: On the eve of the Boeing first quarter earnings call Wednesday, the company faces a slow-down in 787 deliveries at a time when it is gearing to ramp up production to 14/mo next year.
The engine issues with Rolls-Royce, resulting in grounded 787s across the globe, has had the knock-on effect of new production 787s emerging from the Everett and Charleston assembly plants without powerplants. Huge, yellow weight blocks are hung where the engines should be to keep the airplanes from sitting on their tails.
Delayed deliveries
At least five 787s in airline colors are on the Everett flight line awaiting engines, airplane spotters tell LNC. At least one in colors and two more without airline liveries are on the flight line at Charleston, a local reporter tells LNC. (Update: a sixth 787, this one for Gulf Air, rolled out of the Everett factory Friday night without engines.)
Engines from new production airplanes are being diverted to Aircraft on Ground (AOG), sources tell LNC.
As of April 18, there are 45 RR-powered 787s scheduled for delivery this year, according to the Ascend data base. The number rises to 57 next year.
Production isn’t expected to slow, but deliveries are already being affected, LNC is told—with physical evidence clear from the Gliders now parked at Everett and Charleston.
Indigo, India’s market-leading airline
By Bjorn Fehrm
April 18, 2018, ©. Leeham News: Indigo started its operation 2006, offering low-cost air travel to the masses in India. The year after, Air India and Indian Airlines, the state-owned flag International and Domestic carrier, merged to form India’s largest airline at the time, Air India.
By the end of 2010, Indigo passed Air India and by 2013 Jet Airways for domestic passenger market share, a position it has kept since.
Airbus investment resets the clock on CSeries
Special to Leeham News
By Olivier Bonnassies
Airfinance Journal
April 17, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal, Montreal: Aviation Week & Space Technology managing director technology Graham Warwick believe the acquisition of a 50.1% stake into Bombardier’s CSeries will give the program opportunities in many areas.
Talking at the Innovation Aerospace Forum in Montreal, Warwick says Airbus expertise in marketing, sales and support will be “immediate benefits” to the CSeries program.
Warwick recalls that Airbus is into its second iteration of the Airbus A320 program, whilst Bombardier’s CSeries is a new product.
“The CSeries is right at the beginning of its life. It clearly resets the clock for the CSeries and can even have a meaningful impact in the future,” he says.
Bombardier’s CSeries vice president program Rob Dewar says 29 CS100/300s are now in service with three customers: Air Baltic, Swiss and Korean Air.
The Canadian manufacturer continues to be pleased with the introduction into service.
Air Canada sees secondary airport need for NMA
Special to Leeham News
By Olivier Bonnassies
Airfinance Journal
April 16, 2018, (c) Airfinance Journal, Montreal: Air Canada sees the potential of a new midsize aircraft (NMA) in its fleet to avoid congested airport.
“There is a difficulty in getting slots at key airports in key times,” Calin Ravinescu, Air Canada president and chief executive officer, said at the Innovation Aerospace Forum in Montreal.