Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing reports mixed results of latest employee survey, but middle management and officers remain key obstacles April 22, 2025
- Hopes for 1Q financial progress turns into bumpy ride for Boeing April 21, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 18. April 18, 2025
- Natilus: Composite BWB, entry-into-service by 2029, 570 on order April 17, 2025
- China bans Boeing, US parts imports in tariff war April 15, 2025
Growth Frontiers 2015 conference: Fuel prices and the order bubble
By Bjorn Fehrm
18 Jan 2015: The subject of the first day at the Growth Frontiers 2015 in Dublin has been very much “what will happen with lower fuel prices”. The conference is the yearly gathering of the aircraft financing community with investors, banks and lessors gathering to learn how key factors in the market affect their industry. With the first day behind us, it is clear the top subject is the low fuel prices and how these will affect aircraft orders and prices going forward.
Interview with Airbus CEO Fabrice Brégier: Airbus and innovation
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
18 Jan 2015: When visiting Toulouse last week we got the opportunity to talk to Airbus CEO, Fabrice Bregiér, on one of his pet subjects: the need for Airbus to be more innovative.
Background to the discussion was that we had observed that Airbus, after decades of a high innovation level, higher than its main competitor Boeing, had slipped behind in the last decade. We wanted to discuss this with Brégier, who has during his tenure, elevated the innovation theme to one of his top priorities. We wanted to see if we had consensus on the past and understood Airbus way forward.
Summary
- A380 problems undercut subsequent innovation; but
- Airbus still maintains innovative lead, Bregier says;
- A350, A320neo, A330neo examples of innovation; and
- Don’t need to overreach when benefits aren’t there.
Airbus formally launches A321LR; we look behind the “LR” to see what’s there
15 Jan 2015: Airbus officially launched what to date has been called A321neoLR as the A321LR at their annual press conference Tuesday. The former A321neoLR name was formed by Leeham News on 21 Ocober 2014 when we could reveal the existence of a A321neo variant which Airbus had started to present to airlines at the time. The final name kept the LR attribute used in the article to distinguish the longer range variant from the standard A321neo.
The A319 has used the LR designation but its use has been limited. The suffix is more commonly identified with Boeing, used as it is with the 777-200LR. Boeing has also commonly used the ER for extended range like 777-200ER, 737-900ER and 777-300ER.
Interview with John Leahy: A380 sales strategy going forward
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Now open to all readers (Fe. 15, 2015)
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan 14 2015: In our deep analysis of the Airbus A380, we concluded that there is nothing wrong with the basic economics of the giant airplane. In fact, with today’s fuel prices, the aircraft’s Direct Operating Costs (DOC) are 20% below its alternatives in the market. Yet the aircraft is experiencing its worst sales drought since its launch, despite adding a leasing alternative during 2014 and efforts by Airbus.
To understand why and what Airbus plans to do about it we arranged for an exclusive interview with Airbus Chief Operating Officer-Customers, John Leahy, at the sidelines of Airbus annual press conference.
Summary
- Our assessment of A380’s cost of operation
- Operating airlines experience with the A380
- Airbus sales strategy to date and changes going forward
A380neo decision likely this year, triggering the next widebody engine project
Subscription required
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Jan. 12, 2015: One of the subjects which is sure to come up on Airbus annual press conference on Tuesday the 13th in Toulouse will be when and how Airbus will re-engine the A380.
Airbus Commercial CEO Fabrice Bregier vowed during the Airbus Group Global Investors Day last month that an A380neo is coming.
There is much speculation around this subject as the business case of re-engineering an aircraft that is selling at such low numbers is difficult to get to close. The business case is difficult to make work for Airbus (such a project will cost in the order of $2 billion) but it will be equally hard for the engine manufacturers to offer engines that have enough efficiency gain to make the overall project feasible from an efficiency improvement perspective.
Summary
- A380 Classic equals Boeing 777-300ER seat fuel costs.
- Boeing 777-9 beats A380 on CASM, an A380neo regains the advantage.
- Engine makers face hard choices to retain dominance or to broaden market penetration.
AirAsia 8501: two weeks later, still looking for the voice recorder
Jan. 11, 2015: It’s now been two weeks and two days (local time) since AirAsia Flight 8501 crashed into the Java Sea. It took nearly two weeks just to locate the tail section of the airplane, which was raised. The flight data recorder was recovered Jan. 12 local time but the cockpit voice recorder is still missing.
Greg Feith, a former crash investigator for the US National Transportation Safety Board, wrote Sunday on his Facebook page, “ADS-B data was used to narrow the search area for the main wreckage. Info from both black boxes will finally provide a factual foundation that the airplane likely ended up in a high speed descent, probably a spiral descent, and impacted the water in an out-of-control situation and not an attempted emergency landing. With the main wreckage scattered, the airplane likely broke-up and skipped across the surface. We should know soon as the info is developed and provided by the NTSC.”
AirAsia update, Dec. 30: Key questions in the investigation
Dec. 30, 2014: With the apparent discovery of the main wreckage of AirAsia Flt 8501 in about 100 ft of water, recovery of the airplane and its black boxes should be a relatively straight-forward operation.
Our previous posts have outlined general areas of inquiry. With this post, we drill down into some of the flight and airplane questions that will be part of the inquiry. We talked with an Airbus A320 captain for a major US airline in forming these issues. This captain has been flying for US carriers for 30 years and is rated on Boeing 737s, the McDonnell Douglas DC-10 and the A320.
Key points:
AirAsia update: debris from flight confirmed; airline was implementing real-time tracking
Dec. 30, 2014: Debris and bodies have been found and confirmed coming from AirAsia Flight QZ8501, bringing closure for the families and friends of the flight that disappeared on Sunday local time.
Reports of shadows that could be a wing or fuselage in water about 30 meters deep have also been seen.
Some debris and bodies have already been recovered.
If the main body of the wreckage has also been spotted, recovery of the all-important flight data and cockpit voice recorders could come rather quickly.
Odds and Ends: Why radar tracking is insufficient; 787 and batteries; 777 Classic sales
Radar tracking: This story from the Financial Post in Canada explains why radar tracking of airliners is insufficient and a better way is necessary. This also explains why better, more accurate coverage can save the airline industry gobs of money.
Gosh–instead of making a safety argument and lives saved, maybe focusing on money saved will spur some action….
787 and batteries: Aspire Aviation takes a deep look at the 787 battery report from Japan’s investigative agency
777 Classic Sales: Boeing ends 2014 with around 60 orders for the 777 Classic, at the top end of the 40-60 annual sales officials say is needed to maintain production rates at the current level of 100/yr. Dan Catchpole of The Everett Herald has an interview with Randy Tinseth, VP-Marketing of Boeing, who discusses the prospects of maintaining this pace until 2020, when the successor 777X enters service.
Regulators dither on real-time tracking as another airplane goes missing
Air France 447.
Malaysia Airlines MH370.
AirAsia QZ8501.
Dec. 28, 2014: Each flight disappeared over water. Search parties had a general idea where to look for AF447, but it still took five days before wreckage was spotted in the water and two years before the flight recorder and cockpit voice recorder were recovered.
Searchers think they know generally–very generally–where to look for MH370, but no wreckage at all has been spotted.
And now there’s AirAsia QZ8501. Searchers have a general idea where to look, but not precisely.
Aviation regulators are infamous for their “tombstone” mentality–not requiring safety changes until people die.
How many people have to die before regulators finally mandate real-time flight tracking?
ICAO, the international organization that overseas safety and regulatory issues, has been dithering since MH370 about mandating real-time flight tracking. But the issue has been around since the 2009 Air France crash. There has been no action.
AirAsia demonstrates that real-time tracking is not just trans-ocean flights that need tracking. MH370 also showed this–the flight was a relatively short, intra-Asia flight with an even shorter over-water portion when contact was lost.
It’s time for ICAO to make a decision, and if it doesn’t then individual country regulators need to step up and require real-time tracking. This won’t save the lives lost but recovering wreckage and the black boxes in a timely manner could lead to safety and operational changes that will save lives in the future.
We don’t need more tombstones.