By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type
of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
- The ATR72-600, Bombardier Q400 and CRJ700 are all about the same size, around 70-80 seats single class or 60-70 seats dual class.
- They offer different comfort levels, and it is not all about speed.
- In developing the economics in two steps we seek the crossover points between the different types.
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Redefining the 757 replacement: Requirement for the 225/5000 Sector
By Bjorn Fehrm
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Introduction
25 Feb 2015: Speculation continues to ramp up during the last weeks and months about what Boeing is up to in the 180 to 250 seat sector and what might be Airbus’ response on top of the A321LR. The segment is not well covered today within production aircraft where 737-900ER and the forthcoming MAX 9 cover up to 210 seats and A321-200 and A321neo up to 220 seats. Both fly their passengers up to a realistic mission of 3000nm, i.e. transcontinental USA.
The next in production aircraft are 787-8 and A330-200 at 240 to 280 seats. These are long range dual aisle aircraft with empty weights more than double of the former pair. The 787-8 and A330-200 per seat economics on shorter missions are therefore in another ball game.
The only aircraft that currently bridges this gap is the out-of-production Boeing 757 and there has been much debate how this shall be replaced. We have covered this question in a number or articles focusing on in turn:
We also covered the study work underway at Boeing to cover this segment. We will now dig deeper into this corner after Boeing has unequivocally stated it does not see a re-engine 757 covering this segment and any aircraft that the airlines want should be a bit larger than the 757.
Summary:
Over a series of articles we will cover:
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Posted on February 25, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, GE Aviation, Leeham News and Comment, Premium
737 MAX, 747-8, 757, 787, Airbus, Boeing, KC-767
Is next airliner a single or dual aisle?
By Bjorn Fehrm
19 Feb 2015: There has been much speculation over the last weeks and months what Boeing is up to in the segment 200 to 250 seats, also know as the “757 replacement market“. The speculations over Airbus response are also vivid. One of the reasons is that apart from this segment the landscape of which civil airliners will be produced over the next 10-15 years is pretty much settled; Cseries is on final stretch of development, A320neo is flying while 737 MAX flies next year. A330neo will fly 2017 as will 787-10. A350-1000 start testing in 2016 with deliveries in 2017 and 777-9X flies 2019 with deliveries 2020.
Apart from an announcement by Russia and China that they will design a 250-280 seat widebody there is only the “757 replacement” segment which can result in a clean sheet approach from the major OEMs. Around this questions has arisen a lot of speculation about possible short and long term solutions. Having done a lot of checking of these alternatives with our proprietary model, we have learned that:
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58 Comments
Posted on February 19, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi, United Aircraft
757, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, KC-767
Odds and Ends: Tax breaks and job guarantees; New airline analysis blog
Feb. 17, 2015: Tax breaks and job guarantees: Boeing’s two largest unions in Washington State appear to be making headway this legislative session to get a bill on the floor for a vote that would retroactively tie 2013 tax breaks to a guarantee of jobs.
It’s less likely that the legislation will include a minimum wage component.
The tax breaks, hastily approved by the Legislature in November 2013, provided for $8.7bn in tax breaks to 2040 in return for Boeing locating the 777X assembly line and wing production in Everett (WA). The tax breaks are not only for Boeing, but available across the supply chain.
But there were no job guarantees, SPEEA and the IAM 751 warned legislators, and without them in the bill, they predicted Boeing would move jobs out of state.
That’s exactly what happened.
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17 Comments
Posted on February 17, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, Boeing
737 MAX, 777X, 787, airlines, Boeing, IAM 751, SkyWriter Aviation, SPEEA
Boeing 757 MAX: why its operating economics does not work
By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
Feb 12, 2015: In a series of articles during the autumn we covered the replacement scenarios for Boeing’s 757-200 when used for long haul passenger operations. The series also included an interview with Boeing’s head of new airplane studies, Kourosh Hadi, director of product development at Boeing where he outlined what Boeing studied and why.
This week The Wall Street Journal published an article portraying that Boeing seriously considered launching a re-engined 757 as a response to Airbus A321LR. Boeing has since vehemently denied the story and we have given the reasons why it does not make sense for Boeing.
As a complement we show the operational economical analysis that we did at the time of our 757 articles, now updated to the exact modifications suggested by The WSJ, a new engine and new winglets paired with modern avionics.
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32 Comments
Posted on February 12, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce
737, 737 MAX, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, United Airlines
Odds and Ends: CSeries; Mitsubishi MRJ; Air France; Saving airlines
CSeries: Bombardier provided a short update from program head Rob Dewar in advance of its 2014 earnings call Thursday. The flutter test has been completed, CS300 is moving toward joining the flight test fleet and the fleet has completed 900 hours of the 2,400 required toward certification.
MRJ90: The Mitsubishi MRJ is Japan’s first commercial airliner since the YS-11 turboprop in the last century. It’s a bold project intended to break into a highly competitive market sector. Air&Space magazine of the Smithsonian Institute profiles the MRJ.
Air France: Aviation Week has a dark opinion of the future of Air France. It’s worth a read.
Saving airlines: While Aviation Week has a dim view on the future of Air France, The Wall Street Journal has a piece about how private equity saved airlines. (Subscription may be required).
15 Comments
Posted on February 9, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airlines, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi
Air France, American Airlines, Bombardier, CRJ-900, CSeries, E-145, Embraer, Luxair, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Q400, Rob Dewar
Regional operations with the Turboprop, prop-jet or Jet
By Bjorn Fehrm
Subscription required
Introduction
08 Feb 2015: Passenger traffic is growing the world over on a regional, domestic and international level. For domestic and international airlines the choice of mainline transport aircraft is clear today: there are only two vendors, Boeing and Airbus, and they produce similar products.
For regional transportation there is more choice. First of all, one can chose type
of aircraft, turboprop or jet. Within jet, there are several OEMs that are active. The choice in turboprop is more restricted. In practice, the choice stands between the classical turboprop with ATR and a faster type from Bombardier, the Q400 “Prop-Jet” as it is called, as its speed lands between the classical turboprop and regional jet.
The question is, what are the real differences between them in terms of design, passenger comfort and economics and what is the right choice for a market segment? We will take a deeper look into this by analyzing the ATR72 as the classical turboprop, the Bombardier Q400 as the Prop-Jet and CRJ700 as the regional jet.
Summary:
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Posted on February 8, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, ATR, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Sukhoi
ATR72, Bombardier, CRJ700, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney, Q400, SSJ100, Sukhoi
Odds and Ends: Real-time flight tracking; LEAP-1A testing
Real-time flight tracking: At last, the airline industry is adopting rules to require real-time flight tracking. ICAO, the international organization governing rules and regulations, approved one to require real time tracking next year. The action is long overdue.
Singapore Airlines has made the decision to begin installing the system sooner.
Initially data will be transmitted at 15 minute intervals but if a flight anomaly occurs, transmissions will occur at one minute intervals. While the system won’t prevent real-time accidents (or hijackings), locating airplanes sooner could save lives if an accident is survivable or accelerate recovery of flight data recorders and cockpit voice recorders to solve an accident sooner and potentially prevent accidents in the future from the results.
LEAP-1A testing: The CFM LEAP-1A, destined for the Airbus A320neo family, is now in flight testing, reports Flight Global.
22 Comments
Posted on February 5, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
Airbus, Airlines, CFM
A320NEO, Airbus, airlines, CFM, LEAP-1A, real-time flight tracking
Odds and Ends: AirAsia 8501; SkyMark Airlines bankruptcy; One year for MH370; Billy Bishop Airport; PNAA conference
Jan. 29, 2015: AirAsia 8501: The first report by the Indonesian government has been issued, per international rules, but the public portion is pretty uninformative if press reports are to be believed. At the same time, leaks indicate that the pilots may have turned off a key set of computers shortly before the airplane went out of control. There’s no apparent information yet why they might have done this. Were they responding to a malfunction, real or perceived? Was there some other reason? Is the leak on this even accurate?
Previous reports and statements from the government ruled out terrorism, bombs, and even the weather. We understand as well that there has not been a safety-of-flight issue. This leaves pilot actions and contributing factors as the likely focus. What series of events combined to lead to the accident remains to be determined. Read more
25 Comments
Posted on January 29, 2015 by Scott Hamilton
AirAsia, Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Malaysian Airlines
A330-300, A380, AirAsia, AirAsia 8501, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Malaysia Airlines, MH370, Richard Aboulafia, Scott Hamilton, Skymark Airlines, Spirit Aerosystems
A350-1000 gets upgrade to 387 seats; we analyse the consequences
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
28 Jan 2015: Exactly one week after the first Airbus A350 started regular service between Doha and Frankfurt with Qatar Airways (on 15th of January), upgrades to the A350 capacity was announced by Airbus in a presentation to German investors. The forthcoming upgrade was hinted to media at Airbus annual press conference two weeks ago by Didier Evrard, Airbus head of programs, but no details were given at the time.
Summary:
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7 Comments
Posted on January 28, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Premium
777, 777X, 787, A320, A330, A350, Air France-KLM, Airbus, Boeing, British Airways, Singapore Airlines, United Airlines
First analysis of Mitsubishi Regional Jet, MRJ
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By Bjorn Fehrm
Introduction
25 Jan 2015: Japan has not produced a commercial aircraft since 1973, when the last YS-11 twin engined turboprop rolled off the assembly line. The YS-11 was developed by a consortium of Japanese “heavies,” where two are also active in the creation of
the MRJ, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Fuji Heavy Industries. This time Mitsubishi Heavy Industries is very much in command as they own 64% of the company set up to develop, assemble and market the aircraft, Mitsubishi Aircraft Corporation, Fuji Heavy Industries are working as design consultants this time.
Figure 1. Mitsubishi MRJ90 starting its Pratt & Whitney GTF engines for the first time. Source: Mitsubishi.
The first MRJ prototype has run its engines 10 days ago and is preparing for first flight later in the spring. It is therefore time to take a closer look at the first model, MRJ90, and compare it to its direct competitor, Embraer 175 E2.
Summary:
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7 Comments
Posted on January 25, 2015 by Bjorn Fehrm
Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Premium
787, Boeing, Bombardier, CSeries, Embraer, GTF, Mitsubishi, MRJ90, Pratt & Whitney
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