Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Airbus’ Bregier vows future for A380 with a neo, stretch
Dec. 11, 2014: Fabrice Bregier, CEO of Airbus Commercial, Thursday vowed there is a solid future for the A380, a day ofter Airbus Group CFO Harald Wilhelm cast doubt over the airplane.
“We have commercial momentum on A380, we will get additional customers. We have to get more customers, and convince them there is much more upside than downside to the A380. We are reducing the recurring costs. Longer term this aircraft has stronger potential. We will one day launch an A380neo and one day launch a stretched A380,” Bregier said on Day 2 of the Airbus Investors Days.
At what price do used A380s make sense?
Subscription Required
Now open to all readers. (Feb. 15, 2015.)
Introduction
Dec. 3, 2014: It’s been seven years since the first Airbus A380 entered service with Emirates Airlines. Tim Clark, the carrier’s president and chief operating officer, told Leeham News and Comment in September that when the A380s reach age 12-15, the period assumed for a useful life in the Emirates business plan, he’ll just send the airplanes to the desert and cut them up.
Aside from cargo conversions, for which the A380 is a poor candidate, is there an alternative for the secondary passenger market?
Summary
- Secondary markets for Very Large Aircraft are problematic.
- Reconfiguration, overhaul costs add huge dollars to the acquisition cost.
- Is there a figure where a secondary market makes sense?
- The value of a 12 year old A380 is….
Air Canada: 787s have 29% lower costs than older 767s (before the latter’s reconfiguration)
Dec. 2, 2014: Air Canada says its new Boeing 787s will have 29% lower fuel, maintenance and per-seat costs than the old Boeing 767-300ERs being replaced.
Part of this is because the 787s seat more passengers.
But the airline has found new life in the 767s through increased density, shifting them to its low cost carrier, Rouge, which has lower labor costs and overhead. Rouge’s 767s have 30% lower CASM costs than the same airplane at mainline Air Canada. Read more
Oil heading toward $40? Economist still thinks so, with caveats; and: NTSB issues 787 battery report, Azul’s A320/CFM order
Dec. 1, 2014: Adam Pilarski, an economist for the consulting firm Avitas, predicted several years ago that the price of oil would drop to $40bbl. Few believed him.
Oil hit $66 this week, on a steady decline over the past months, and, according to an article by Bloomberg News, could be on its way to $40.
Pilarski, who originally made his prediction in 2011 at a conference organized by the International Society of Transport Aircraft Traders (ISTAT). He predicted this price by October 2018.
In an interview with Leeham News today, Pilarski concurs that oil may hit $40 soon, though he believes the low end will be in the $40-$50 range. The low price will not for the reasons he outlined in 2011 and neither will it stay at or near $40 for long.
Odds and Ends: Storm Warnings; Boeing photos now available to everyone; CSeries; Movin’ on up
Nov. 26, 2014:Storm Warnings: We’ve made references in recent posts about airlines on our “Storm Warning Flag” list.
Our 2013 Top Customers and Storm Warning Flag list for wide-body airplanes. The Red are Middle Eastern airlines, blue from Asia and black from the US and Europe. Only one airline for wide-body orders was on our Storm Warning Flag list: AirAsiaX. Expansion and ordering we considered too rapid landed the carrier on the list. Sources: Airbus, Boeing. Click to enlarge.
In 2013, we compiled the Top Customers for Single-Aisle and Twin-Aisle Airplanes for Airbus and Boeing. Here’s our 2013 Storm Warning Flag list. The name comes from the flag, which signals Storm Warnings. This list was compiled before the 777X orders announced at Dubai were firmed up, so the yellow boxes show what the Top 10 Boeing rankings would be had they been. We considered the quantity of orders, the current operations, financial status and other factors in placing a carrier on our Storm Warning Flag list. The Wide-body list also illustrates the growing importance of the Middle Eastern airlines (consider that this was a year ago). The wide-body list is pretty stable.
Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 4
By Bjorn Fehrm
Nov. 25, 2014: In our article series around the performance of a modern airliner we have now come to the climb after takeoff. We started with cruise as this was simplest because the aircraft is flying in steady state, then we looked at the modern turbofan and how this is affected by both altitude and speed. We then examined how this affects the takeoff and today we continue with the climb after takeoff.
Before we start, let’s sum up a few points we need for today:
- Drag is the one thing we always need to be aware of as this regulates how much excess power we have in different flight situations and therefore if we can stay on our altitude or climb.
- Drag diminishes with altitude as the airs density diminishes and thereby our dominant drag component, air friction against our aircraft’s skin. This is the major component of the aircraft’s dominant drag, parasitic drag.
- Our lift force is generated by forcing air downwards and this causes induced drag as this downwash cost energy to generate and maintain. Induced drag is mitigated by a wing with a large span.
Odds and Ends: Korean tanker competition sounds like US rerun; About that blister on the top of airliners; JetBlue explains bags, seats
Korean tanker competition: South Korean is holding a competition for an aerial refueling tanker and in many respects, it sounds like a rerun of the USAF competition between Airbus and Boeing.
In the US contest, major debates happened over Bigger vs Smaller between the A330-200-based KC-330 MRTT and the 767-200ER-based Boeing tanker, which ultimately won and which was named the KC-46A.
This article neatly sums of this same issue in the Korean competition. It’s a matter of greater range, more fueling capacity, vs “enough” and better airport access; and global compatibility.
About that blister: Have you ever noticed the big “blister” in the top of airliner
The “blister” on top of the fuselage contains internet connectivity antennae. The power line appearing to come out of the top of the blister is not part of this. Source: AirlineReporter.com
fuselages? This is for Internet connectivity, an increasingly popular feature on airlines as passengers bring their own Nookbooks, iPads and the like to watch movies or cruise the Net. But aircraft lessors apparently don’t find these features all that desirable and are increasingly talking about having airlines take them out at the end of lease terms. Mary Kirby of Runway Girl Network has this story on the esoteric topic.
JetBlue explains bags, seats: JetBlue is reducing seat pitch and adding bag fees. CFO Mark Powers explains these moves in a Bloomberg News interview.
Little progress on A330 production gap
Subscription required.
Introduction
With the end of the year a mere five weeks away, Airbus appears to have made little progress in closing its production gap for the A330.
Summary
- Airbus still has a gap of approaching 150 production slots at current and announced rates between now and the planned EIS of the A330neo in December 2017.
- Launch of A330neo helps, but does not cure production gap–especially between now and 2018.
- No Chinese order for A330 Regional after more than a year.
- AirAsiaX deferring orders–and will some CEO orders be swapped for the NEO?
Odds and Ends: No Boeing response to A321neoLR; After DL loss, Boeing wins Kuwait; It’s ‘huge’
No response to A321neoLR: Reuters reports that Boeing isn’t going to respond to the Airbus A321neoLR, the airplane intended to be a bonafide replacement for the Boeing 757.
“We are very happy with where the MAX 9 sits and feel the competition is simply doing things to catch up with it,” Randy Tinseth, vice president of marketing at Boeing Commercial Airplanes said, Reuters reports.
There’s really no other choice but to say Boeing is happy. As we demonstrated in our three-part 757 replacement series in October, the 737-9 can’t be made competitive with the A321neoLR. As Tinseth notes in the Reuters article, and which we covered in our three-part series, Boeing could put another fuel tank (as does Airbus in the A321neo) in the -9 to match the range. But what Tinseth did not note in Reuters (or at least it wasn’t reported if he did), and which we did write, the 737-9 comes up more than 15 passengers short of the A321neoLR and 20 passengers short of the 757–and it needs 12,000 ft of runway to take off with a full load.
Odds and Ends: JetBlue defers A320s; Delta’s A350 order; Another KC-46A delay?
JetBlue defers A320s: This US airline announced at its investors’ day that it is deferring Airbus A320s from this decade into next. JP Morgan had this commentary November 19:
JetBlue…announced a deferral of 18 A320-family aircraft from 2016-18 to 2022-23. While having a $900m positive impact on cap-ex through 2018, we believe the deferral should also limit near-term speculation on widebodies and Transatlantic expansion for several years. The reason? We believe the deferral was driven in large part by Airbus’ continued study of an ‘A321neoLR….’ Airbus continues to explore the development of a long-range version (3,900 nm) of its flagship narrowbody aircraft to serve as a fuel-efficient competitor to the Boeing 757-200W, with potential entry in to service by 2018-19. We believe such an aircraft would fit exceptionally well into JBLU’s longer-term expansion plans, though it does imply a Transatlantic future somewhere down the road, in our view.
JetBlue has expressed interest in entering long-haul, over-water routes, but it doesn’t have ETOPS qualification. If it were to do so sooner than later, it would have to either wetlease aircraft (as did WestJet of Canada) or lease the four-engine A340-300, a cheap lift with a modest capacity.