Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing unlikely to meet FAA’s 90-day deadline for new safety program April 18, 2024
- Focus on quality not slowing innovation, says GKN April 18, 2024
- Boeing defends 787, 777 against whistleblower charges April 17, 2024
- Dissecting Boeing CEO’s statement next new airplane will cost $50bn April 15, 2024
- Bjorn’s Corner: New engine development. Part 3. Propulsive efficiency April 12, 2024
Air Berlin 787 cancellation potentially gives Boeing big advantage in Delta order competition
The announcement last week that AirBerlin canceled orders for 15 Boeing 787s gives Boeing an unexpected, big advantage in the contest for a big wide-body order from Delta Air Lines–depending on when Delta wants the airplanes.
The competition apparently has been narrowed to the Airbus A350-900 and the Boeing 787-9, according to Flight Global. Based on this article, the Airbus A330-900 neo has been eliminated, which if true is a blow to the fledgling program in which Airbus had counted on Delta to be a launch customer.
Outside of the OEMs and Delta, it’s not known when Delta wants 50 widebodies. But the A350 and 787 are essentially sold out through the end of the decade, though both OEMs can typically find delivery slots for important campaigns such as this one by over-booking or persuading other customers to move their delivery positions.
Airbus has plenty of slots for the A330neo from 4Q2017, when entry-into-service is planned. But with the apparent elimination of the A330neo from the competition, delivery schedule becomes important–and the AirBerlin cancellation works to Boeing’s advantage.
Etihad, Emirates refute charges of favoritism from government owners
Two of the Middle East’s most aggressively growing airlines said charges that they benefit from government subsidies, artificially low fuel prices, cheap airport facilities and preferential financing refuted these charges at the World Routes conference in Chicago this week.
Neither, however, addressed charges they unfairly benefit from US ExIm Bank funding, a particularly sensitive topic for Delta Air Lines which has been waging an effective campaign to cast doubt over the Depression-era institution intended to support US exports. Boeing is the largest user of ExIm financing and Emirates in particular has been an active participant in the program. Delta claims ExIm provides below-market rate fees and interest charges.
The airline industry is changing and acting like real businesses to return value for shareholders
“Our industry is changing and acting like real businesses to return value for shareholders.”
It’s a remarkable statement when you think about it. But this is how Jim Compton, vice chairman of United Airlines, led off at the World Routes conference this week in Chicago.
The US airline industry for years seemed to be operated more for market share than for profit. At least this is how many chief executive officers often characterized things until after 9/11, when US carriers wrenched through the aftermath of that horrible day. Even so, CEOs often complained there was too much capacity to allow for profitable operations. It wasn’t until after the global financial collapse of 2008 that US airlines began to consolidate, reduce flights and take capacity out of the system. Profits began to return.
Airbus could decide on A380neo within six month: Emirates’ Tim Clark
Airbus could decide within the next six months whether to re-engine the A380 with Rolls-Royce powerplants, says Tim Clark, the president of Emirate Airlines, which has ordered more of the giant airplanes than any other customer.
Tim Clark, president of Emirates Airlines. Emirates Airlines photo.
Clark, speaking to a press gaggle on the sidelines of the World Routes conference Sunday in Chicago, said a RR engine would likely be based on elements of the Trent 1000 and Trent 7000 engines on the Boeing 787 and Airbus A330neo.
Al Jazeera dumps “Inside Story” look at 787 documentary
Update, Sept. 15, 12:20pm PDT: We got an email from Al Jazeera America Inside Story saying that Al Jazeera English Inside Story is the one that extended the invitation to appear, not Al Jazeera America Inside Story. If you all are confused, so was I. Apologies to AJA Inside Story.
Al Jazeera America English canceled its planned panel discussion of the documentary by sibling Al Jazeera English of the Boeing 787, aired last week to withering criticism by reviewers, including this column.
AJA’s AJE’s half hour discussion program, Inside Story, was to take a free-wheeling look at the documentary. I was invited, and accepted, a slot on the panel. Even after I pointed out my scathing review, AJA AJE assured me that I was still welcome.
The program was to air Sunday or Monday this week. I received notice in a 3am email Sunday (PDT) that the program had been canceled, although no reason why was given and none was provided when I asked.
I don’t know what the real intent of the program was, though I can guess. AJA AJE was trying to get the IAM and SPEEA unions as the other panel participants, so to me it smelled of validation of the documentary rather than an independent discussion. I have no way of knowing whether the unions accepted or declined and the program was canceled for lack of participants or whether it was canceled for other reasons.
Update, Sept. 15, 8:00 am PDT: AJA AJE says the news director concluded there had been enough coverage of the Boeing story and decided to move on.
However, I had my talking points ready. Here’s what I would have said had the program proceeded:
Ryanair becomes launch customer for 737 MAX 200
This has some additional information from our e-newsletter of Sept. 8. Additionally, Airbus has offered some observations about the 737 MAX 200 (as Boeing often does about Airbus products). We’ve initially confined this critique to our e-newsletter; this will be posted on this website next Monday.
Boeing Sept. 8 announced its launch customer for the 737 MAX 200, the 200-seat version of the 737-8: Ireland’s Ultra Low Cost Carrier, Ryanair.
Boeing announced the program at the Farnborough Air Show and it was only a matter of time before Ryanair, which had yet to order the 737-8, became a customer. The carrier’s CEO, Michael O’Leary, had been agitating for a 199-seat version of the 737-800/8 for more than a year. (At 200 seats, another flight attendant is required.)
The 737 MAX 200 is Boeing’s response to Airbus’ move to reconfigure the A320neo to seat 189 passengers, matching the standard layout of the 737-8. The A320neo-189 is at 28 inch seat pitch, and so is the MAX 200.
Odds and Ends: KC-46A update; A440M in the US; A320neo first flight; Southwest no longer an LCC
KC-46A update: Aviation Week has an update on the status of the Boeing KC-46A tanker. Among other things, first fight has now been moved from June to November at the earliest.
A400M in the US: Airbus thinks it’s possible to sell hundreds of its A400M to the US Armed Forces to replace the Lockheed Martin C-130 and Boeing C-17, according to this article by Reuters.
A320neo first flight: Is the Airbus A320neo first flight going to run behind schedule? Airbus won’t say but Reuters suggests that it might. So does Aviation Week, like Reuters, pointing to an issue with the engine.
Southwest no longer an LCC: Bloomberg writes that Southwest Airlines is no longer a low cost carrier, with Cost per Available Seat Mile now approaching the legacy carriers. Years ago we characterized Southwest as the first legacy LCC, as costs increased, low fares began to disappear (it’s often easier to find a low fare on a competitor today) and routes took it into big city airports previously eschewed.
O’Leary clowns around with acceptance of 349th 737-800
In an industry where dull MBAs now dominate and the likes of Herb Kelleher have long since retired, Michael O’Leary is a breath of fresh air.
O’Leary, CEO of Ryanair, was in Seattle Tuesday for the delivery of the carrier’s 349th Boeing 737-800 and the first one of a massive 737NG order announced last year at the Paris Air Show.
O’Leary, wearing a set of 737 MAX winglets made out of 3D printing by Boeing engineers, nearly pranced around a crowd of Boeing employees before accepting delivery of the aircraft.
Ryanair CEO Michael O’Leary clowns around with Boeing employees at the delivery of the carrier’s 349th 737-800, 9/9/14. Photo by Scott Hamilton
Repeating much of what he said Monday upon announcing an order for up to 200 737 MAX 200s, O’Leary said he had been hounding Boeing for 15 years (on Monday it was 10) to add more seats to the 737-800.
CNAC reunion features surviving WW II pilot, C-47/DC-3
This past weekend we attended a reunion of two of the living pilots, descendents, friends and interested public of the China National Aviation Corp. at the San Francisco International Airport.
We did a detailed write-up for CNN.com. This story and some photos are here.
There was a lot that didn’t fit into the CNN article, for space and for the thrust of the article. In a departure from our usual aviation coverage, we’re sharing the experience below.