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Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 1

By Bjorn Fehrm

As part of our premium content we provide a briefer form of our airliner performance analysis than we provide to our consulting clients. As we present this material, we presume a lot of knowledge on the part of the reader on the definitions we use and how these are employed. We thought it would be appropriate to give an easy-to-digest clinic on some of these definitions and concepts that we are using. Aired at the same time when we run our analysis series, we thereby present the background to our different analysis steps and some of the key parameters that influence these.

We will provide these articles as free content to make them available to a broader audience. To make them more interesting and easy to digest we refrain from using formulas as much as possible, instead we illustrate our findings with real values from a modern aircraft , for that we have chosen the most common of them all, the Boeing 737.

We will fly this aircraft in the latest MAX 8 version on a typical short haul mission of 2.5 block hours covering a distance of 1,000 nautical miles. Starting from the cruise we will explain the factors that determine the performance of the aircraft and how we can estimate their influence. As we present the real values for the performance for the aircraft, we can also give the background to the different characteristics that contribute to the overall efficiency of the aircraft. Read more

10 Comments

Posted on November 4, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment

737, 737 MAX, 777X, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing

Odds and Ends: C919 EIS in 2020, says consultant; Qantas goes on diet; BBD tables Russia; Swiss not Cseries launch operator

C919/ARJ21: Aviation Week reports that the COMAC C919 might fly be the end of next year and that EIS may be in 2018.

However, Michel Merluzeau, of G2 Solutions in Kirkland (WA), predicts the EIS won’t happen until 2020. Speaking last week before the British American Business Council-Pacific Northwest unit conference in Seattle, Merluzeau said that after a recent trip to Shanghai, where COMAC is, he now sees EIS in 2020, some four years late and 12 years after the program was launched. The C919 competes with the Airbus A320/321 and the Boeing 737-800/8 and 737-900ER/9.

22 Comments

Posted on November 3, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac

airlines, ARJ21, Bombardier, C919, Comac, G2 Solutions, Michel Merluzeau, Q400, Qantas Airways

Book Review: American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline

American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline, By Ted Reed and Dan Reed, c.2014. Publisher: McFarland (website), 800-253-2187. $39.95 on Amazon.

This is the first book about the merger of American Airlines and US Airways, a combination completed only last December.

Ted Reed is the aviation writer for the web’s The Street. He was also the aviation reporter for The Miami Herald and the Charlotte Observer and worked for US Airways in communications when the airline was the pre-America West Airlines partner. I’ve known Ted for many years and he often calls me for information and comment on The Street. I had the honor of doing some proof reading of this book.

3 Comments

Posted on October 30, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airlines, American Airlines

American Airlines, Dan Reed, Doug Parker, Ed Colodny, Piedmont Airlines, Scott Kirby, Stephen Wolf, Ted Reed, The American Eagle, the Ascent of Bob Crandall and American Airlines, Tom Horton, US Air, US Airways, US Airways and the Creation of the World's Largest Airline

Odds and Ends: A350 batteries; A350 V 1.0; Southwest schedule

A350 batteries: Flight Global has a detailed story about the Airbus approach to lithium-ion batteries in the A350. The approach is more conservative than Boeing’s for the 787.

A350 Version 1.0: A blog called A350 XWB News has a retrospective on the A350’s original proposal (which we call Version 1.0, because the design went through so many iterations). It’s got the original brochure reproduced. It’s an interesting recollection, and one to compare with the A330neo. Boeing dismisses the A330neo as A350 V 1.0, but it’s really not when you compare.

A350 Final version: A350 XWB production is tracking to plan, first A350 after Qatar’s initial 8 (MSN6 to 13), MSN14 to Vietnam Airlines is going to ground tests (Station 30) after getting wings and empennage in Station 40 at the Airbus Final Assembly Line (FAL) in Tolouse. We are following this program carefully since start and the roll out of the latest XWB from wing join was within days of our prediction 6 months ago, thereby the A350 ramp to three FAL starts by end of year is tracking so far.

A380 downed by mops: Aviation Week has the story on how Qantas cleaners got the water flowing in their A380s when it should not. The incident is old (80 gallons of water flowing around in the fittings of the A380 when climbing out of LAX to Melbourne, first time in June) but one has now found the cause; the cleaners mops were getting the water couplings in a galley unlatched. Small things having big impact.

Boeing record: Qatar airways took delivery of three 787 and one 777 in one day this week; here the Flightglobal version of the Boeing announcement. Airline CEO Al Baker says ““Never in the history of an airline have so many aircraft been taken in just one day.”

Southwest schedule: Southwest Airlines adjusted its schedule two months ago to improve its on-time performance, and revealed that the new times are working.

Southwest, once boasting of being #1, 2 or 3 in on-time ratings among US major carriers, saw a steady decline in recent years as it ramped up service in congested airports, expanded in regions that were more prone to weather delays, added larger airplanes (the Boeing 737-800) to its schedule. After acquiring AirTran, Southwest tightened the schedule in an effort to cut turn-times. But AirTran’s traditional hub operation vs WN’s largely point-to-point didn’t lend itself to the tighter turns Southwest scheduled. It didn’t take a lot of insight to understand why delays were showing up on the AirTran fleet. Southwest’s OT performance is still not where it once was–it’s currently at 78.9% when it used to run in the 80s–but it’s better.

21 Comments

Posted on October 29, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing

787, A330neo, A350, A350 Version 1, A380, Airbus, airlines, AirTran, Boeing, lithium-ion batteries, Southwest Airlines

Part 3: Boeing 757 replacement: 757 and Airbus A321neoLR versus clean sheet designs.

Subscription required.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Part 3 of 3

Introduction

In Part 2 of our three-part 757 Replacement analysis, we took a close look at Airbus’ new 97 tonne take-off weight A321neo, revealed in a world exclusive by Leeham News and Comment October 21. We analyzed the A321neoLR’s capabilities and limitations when compared to Boeing 757-200W and we saw that it could do the international flights that the 757-200 does with about 25% better efficiency. In this final Part 3, we will now compare the 757 and A321neoLR against what can be Boeing’s reaction, a clean sheet New Single Aisle, NSA, or New Light Twin Aisle, (NLT). First the conclusions from Part 2:

When using the United Airlines-configured 757-200W international as benchmark, we came within seven seats of the 757 capacity for an A321neoLR. It covered the same range and had trip fuel costs that were 25% lower.
The per seat fuel costs gave a 22% higher efficiency, which was within 2% of Airbus own figures.
737 MAX9 is not suitable for stretch to an international version, not because the wing is not good enough but because the MAX9 cannot bring the wing to an angle at take-off where it can work efficiently; the landing gear is too short.

Summary
For Part 3 we can summarize:

A New Single Aisle (NSA) or New Light Twin (NLT) which would enter the market in 2025 would be sized at around 200 passengers with subsequent variants covering the 175-225 seat market, all numbers with OEM standard two-class seating. Figure 1 shows the fuselage cross sections we have used in our modelling of NSA and NLT to cover this market segment.

Figure 1. Fuselage cross sections of our models of NSA and NLT. Source: Leeham Co.

In order to cover the market segment of the 737, A320 and 757 it would have a range in excess of 4,100nm. We will use 4100nm for our modeling to maximize the comparative efficiency information.
Its efficiency would be higher than an A321neoLR, primarily due to better engines and a more modern wing.
The New Light Twin (NLT) wins on comfort and ground turn-around time but pays with a larger fuselage cross section due to the extra aisle. This causes more drag and structural weight, net effect is a reduction in efficiency of around 2.5%.

5 Comments

Posted on October 28, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, CFM, China, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GE Aviation, Irkut, Leeham Co., Leeham News and Comment, Pratt & Whitney, Premium, Rolls-Royce, Uncategorized

737, 737 MAX, A320, A320NEO, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, CSeries, Embraer, GTF, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce

Delta’s wide-body fleet plan: could it include used 777-200ERs?

Delta Air Lines is supposed to make a decision on its Request for Proposals for 50 wide-body aircraft before the end of this year, perhaps as early as next month. The competition is hot between the Airbus A330-900, the A350-900 and the Boeing 787-9.

Delta is understood to use the aircraft to beef up its growing Seattle hub across the Pacific; for its Detroit hub, also to Asia; and its New York JFK trans-Atlantic hub.

In addition, Delta is phasing out the last 14 of its Boeing 747-400s inherited from its merger with Northwest Airlines by the end of next year.

The A330-900 is viewed as a trans-Atlantic airplane, while the others are viewed as largely, but not necessarily solely, trans-Pacific aircraft, according to our information.

But there could be another wrinkle. On Delta’s third quarter earnings call, CEO Richard Anderson made some intriguing comments that could raise another possibility: acquisition of used Boeing 777-200ERs.

To put this in context, recall that Anderson and Delta actively seek out inexpensive used aircraft which, while hardly competitive at high fuel prices when comparing operating costs vs new aircraft, provide low capital acquisition costs and low ownership costs.

Here’s the exchange on the earnings call, as recorded by Seeking Alpha’s transcript:

27 Comments

Posted on October 28, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Delta Air Lines

777-200ER, A330, A330-900, A330neo, A350-900, Airbus, Aviation Specialists, Boeing, Delta Air Lines, Richard Anderson

Odds and Ends: MTU on A380; lessons learned; Alaska Air v Delta; GOL looking for airplanes; Boeing downgrade and upgrade

MTU on A380: The German company MTU, which is a key supplier on a variety of Airbus and Boeing engines, questions the potential market for an A380neo, according to this article from Reuters. Our Market Intelligence indicates Airbus is moving toward a re-engined airplane, although an Airbus official denied this to us this week. Reuters’ sources suggest work is ramping up.

Tapping lessons learned: The Puget Sound Business Journal has a somewhat different approach to the story earlier this week on the groundbreaking for the Boeing 777X wing factory. Steve Wilhelm focuses on Boeing’s tapping of lessons learned on the 737 and 787 programs.

Alaska Air v Delta Air: Months and months ago (almost a year), we were the first to write that hand-wringing over Delta Air Lines’ growth at Seattle, viewed as a major run at Alaska Airlines, was over-wrought. The growth was to support Delta’s growing international hub and while the growth came on many Alaska routes, Alaska’s dominance would prevail. A few months later, we pointed out that Delta’s growth was coming at the expense of Southwest and United airlines; Alaska was solidifying its position. (It also posted record 3Q earnings this week.)

The Puget Sound Business Journal has this story about how the three generations of the Boeing 737 is helping Alaska face off Delta.

GOL looking for planes: Brazil’s GOL is looking at the Boeing 737-7 and the Embraer E-195 E2 to renew its 737NG fleet, according to this Bloomberg report. Next week we’ll be taking another in our series of looks at EMB’s approach to the market with a discussion of the CASM Paradigm.

Boeing downgrade and upgrade: Credit Suisse yesterday downgraded Boeing from Outperform to Neutral (Buy to Hold) on the basis of 787 deferred costs and lower free cash flow. Wells Fargo reiterated its Hold rating. Zacks went from Neutral to Buy. Stern Agee reiterated its Buy.

70 Comments

Posted on October 24, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Embraer

737, 737-7, 737NG, 787, A380, A380neo, Airbus, airlines, Alaska Airlines, Boeing, Credit Suisse, E-195 E2, Embraer, GOL, MTU

Part 2: Boeing 757: Airbus A321neoLR as a replacement on long and thin routes

Subscription required.

By Bjorn Fehrm

Part 2 of 3

Introduction

In Part 2 of our three-part 757 Replacement analysis, we take a close look at Airbus’ new 97 tonnes take off weight A321neo, revealed by Leeham News and Comment October 21. We call the 97t airplane the A321neoLR (Long Range); Airbus has yet to name the aircraft, which it began showing to airlines last week.

We analyze the A321neoLR’s capabilities and limitations when compared to the aircraft it intends to replace, the Boeing 757-200W. We have chosen to do so using a real airline configuration as opposed to an OEM’s typical seating layout. By comparing the 757-200W and the A321neoLR over the route structure that United Airlines is using the 757 today, we can better see the characteristics of the A321neoLR and what operational consequences the differences between the types would mean for the airlines. Before we start, a short recap of Part 1 about the 757 and its replacement candidates. Here is what we found:

the seating capacity of the A321 is within 10 seats of the 757-200 in a standard configuration; the 737 MAX9 is trailing with about 20 fewer seats.
the myth about the strong engines of the 757 is just that, a myth.
the good field performance of the 757 is coming from its wing more than any advantage on the engine side
the A321neo and 737 MAX9 were hindered in their capability to replace the 757 for long and thin international routes by characteristics that can be changed. For the A321neo, this may be accomplished with rather modest changes to Max Take Off Weight (MTOW) and tankage. For the 737 MAX9, more elaborate changes to the wing and engines are required, both hard to do.

Figure 1. Boeing 757-200 of British Airways which launched the 757 together with Eastern Airlines 1983. Source: Wikimedia.

Summary, Part 2

We will now look in detail on the changes Airbus is doing on the A321neoLR, what each change brings and any restrictions that remain.
We will also detail why we think it will be harder for Boeing to match the A321neoLR with a 737 MAX9 development.
We detail prime, present 757W long-thin routes.
We present 757W international, A321neoLR and 737 MAX9 “long range” configurations.
We provide economic comparisons such as Payload-Range charts and Fuel consumption per trip and per seat diagrams.

In the final Part 3, will look at Boeing’s alternative to an A321neoLR, a clean sheet New Single Aisle (NSA) and a prospective Small Twin Aisle (STA) design and how much such an approach would surpass the A321neoLR on medium and long haul networks and when it could be available.

2 Comments

Posted on October 22, 2014 by Bjorn Fehrm

Airbus, Airlines, American Airlines, Boeing, CFM, Delta Air Lines, GE Aviation, Pratt & Whitney, Premium

737 MAX, 737/757 replacement, 737NG, 757-200W, A320NEO, Airbus, American Airlines, Boeing, CFM, Delta Air Lines, GTF, Pratt & Whitney

Indigo order raises questions of demand in India, elsewhere

Free content.

Introduction

The Indigo order announced this week for 250 Airbus A320neos raises once again questions of whether Indian airlines in particular and the greater Asian region in general are over-ordering airplanes.

We’ve written in the past that we believe Asia and India are dicey markets for which a shakeout is yet to come.

The USA entered deregulation in 1979/80. There was a proliferation of new airlines that started service–by some counts, more than 200. Nearly all failed through a combination of poor business plans, under-capitalization, mergers, economic and travel collapses due to Middle Eastern wars, fuel price hikes and other factors.

Even legacy airlines collapsed. Eastern Airlines, Pan Am, TWA and Braniff–all storied names in US commercial aviation–are gone. (The new Eastern Airlines hopes to start service this year, 23 years after the original one ceased operations.) Northwest Airlines and Western Airlines merged out of existence.

The US airline industry is down to American, Delta and United as the holdovers from a by-gone era. Southwest Airlines now carries more domestic passengers than any of these legacies. Alaska Airlines remains. jetBlue, Spirit Airlines and Frontier Airlines are a new breed of Ultra Low Cost Carriers (ULCC).

In Europe, a shakeout of airlines has occurred but arguably it has hardly gone far enough. During our trip last week to Brazil to visit Embraer, officials pointed out that there are 40 airlines in Europe serving a market similar in size to the USA, where essentially there are 10 carriers.

In Asia and India, the shakeout is only beginning.

Summary

Shakeout of airlines in US has occurred.
Shakeout in Europe has occurred, but it hasn’t gone far enough.
Shakeout in Asia is only just beginning.
“LCC Evolution” is shrinking.
ASEAN region is over-ordered.

25 Comments

Posted on October 17, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer

737 MAX, A320NEO, A330neo, A350, AirAsia, AirAsiaX, Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier, Embraer, LCC Evolution, LionAir

Leeham News launches Premium plan, companion to free content; engineer joins staff

Free content.

Leeham News and Comment (LNC) today launched a Premium subscription plan as a companion to free content.

LNC has provided news and commentary since February 2008, providing industry-leading information and insightful analysis, principally focuses on Airbus, Boeing, Bombardier and Embraer but also including emerging challengers to the Big Four OEMs, the leading engine manufacturers, suppliers and airline news.

LNC has been a leading resource of news and comment throughout the commercial aviation industry and its professional followers in the aerospace supply chain, investment analysts and the media.

Since the first of this year, LNC increasingly provided more and more technically-based content. This content is valuable and supplements the industry-leading news and reporting that has been provided since 2008. We are pleased to announce the addition to our staff, Bjorn Fehrm, who focuses on technical evaluation and complements the strategic expertise of Scott Hamilton, the founder of LNC and Leeham Co. consultancy.

15 Comments

Posted on October 14, 2014 by Scott Hamilton

Airbus, Airlines, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi

737-9, 757, 757 replacement, A321NEO, Airbus, Bjorn Fehrm, Boeing, Bombardier, CFM, Comac, Embraer, Irkut, Leeham News and Comment, Mitsubishi, Pratt & Whitney, Rolls-Royce, Sukhoi

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Leeham News and Analysis

There's more to real news than a news release.

Leeham News and Analysis

Fundamentals of airliner performance, Part 1

Odds and Ends: C919 EIS in 2020, says consultant; Qantas goes on diet; BBD tables Russia; Swiss not Cseries launch operator

Book Review: American Airlines, US Airways and the Creation of the World’s Largest Airline

Odds and Ends: A350 batteries; A350 V 1.0; Southwest schedule

Part 3: Boeing 757 replacement: 757 and Airbus A321neoLR versus clean sheet designs.

Delta’s wide-body fleet plan: could it include used 777-200ERs?

Odds and Ends: MTU on A380; lessons learned; Alaska Air v Delta; GOL looking for airplanes; Boeing downgrade and upgrade

Part 2: Boeing 757: Airbus A321neoLR as a replacement on long and thin routes

Indigo order raises questions of demand in India, elsewhere

Leeham News launches Premium plan, companion to free content; engineer joins staff

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