Back to the Future with PeoplExpress

PeoplExpress, a fast growing no-frills carrier of the 1980s, is returning in name only. A new company, wet-leasing planes from another airline, uses the old name and the most of the old business plan to start service soon from Newport News (VA).

But in an erroneous set of conclusions, some are calling the business plan a radical departure from today’s airlines. In fact, the bare-bones, no-frills service offered by the new PeoplExpress was used by its forerunner and is truly the model for today’s Ultra Low Cost Carrier (ULCC), long before Ireland’s Ryanair and the USA’s Spirit Air adopted the model.

You pay for everything: soft drinks, checked baggage, and so on. There have been refinements since then, expanding the fee-based formula of the original PE, but fundamentally the ULCCs of today are based on the PE of yesterday. The new PE simply follows the ULCC approach.

The new PE will wet-lease Boeing 737-400s from a Las Vegas airline, Vision. Jeff Erickson, former CEO of Midway Airlines, Reno Air, Atlas Air and TWA, is the CEO of PE. We’ve known Erickson for more than 20 years. If PE is well-funded (and we don’t know the finances), we believe Erickson can indeed find a niche for the carrier as legacy airlines continue to give short shrift to smaller markets. Newport News doesn’t strike us as an obvious place to headquarter or hub an airline, but this decision was made before Erickson came on board.

 

 

Odds and Ends: MH370 tracking; Garuda rules out A380, 747-8; last 747-400 flight; E-Jet vs Turbo-props

MH370 tracking: With Britain’s Immarsat and the Air Accident Investigation Board key to determining the general location of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH370, The London Telegraph has one of the best narratives of of the behind-the-scenes story of how this came about. The London Independent also has a good story. And here is a story that explains the difficulties of searching in remote oceans.

  • Update, 10:30am PDT: Aviation analyst and former pilot John Nance is profiled in this Puget Sound Business Journal account that includes’ Nance’s theory of MH370. It’s an intriguing theory. He believes this was a deliberate act–either terrorism or murder-suicide–and that once the flight settled out southbound from Malaysia, it was set on auto-pilot and all aboard, including the pilot, were killed by asphyxiation. The airplane flew until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the Indian Ocean; he even gives a speed and angle-of-attack estimate.

Garuda rules out A380, 747-8: The Australian reports that after planning to order either the Airbus A380 or Boeing 747-8 last year, officials have ruled this out.

Last 747-400 flight: Japan’s All Nippon Airlines plans to complete its last Boeing 747-400 flight this month, ending an iconic era in the country where 747s once ruled the skies.

E-Jet vs Turbo-Props: At the ISTAT conference last week, we reported that Embraer says its E-175 E2 is more efficient than similarly sized turbo props on missions of more than 250 miles. This story in The Economic Times of India follows through on this theme.

Odds and Ends: CNBC reporter says Boeing’s McNerney among top 25 CEOs; 757 replacement; BBD earnings; Spirit Air

CNBC and Boeing’s McNerney: CNBC reporter Phil LeBeau, who covers aerospace and automobiles among other topics, thinks Boeing CEO Jim McNerney deserves a place in CNBC’s Top 25 CEO list. Here’s why. Aaron Karp at Air Transport World has his own take on Boeing’s position in the market today.

757 replacement: Airchive has an analysis on the need fora Boeing 757 replacement that is well worth reading. Our analysis was last October. Richard Aboulafia of The Teal Group said last week he also believes a 757 replacement is on its way (with a launch in 2018, as we previously suggested). Bloomberg has this article from the Singapore Air Show on the topic.

Bombardier earnings call: BBD reports its fourth quarter and year-end financial results Thursday. It will be interesting to hear of the impact of the latest CSERiesdelay, of 9-15 months. Here is a report in the Toronto Globe and Mail on what analysts thought in advance of the call.

Spirit Air CEO profile: The Associated Press has an entertaining profile of the CEO of Spirit Airlines, the notoriously unfriendly US airline that rivals Ireland’s Ryanair for fees and an apparent dedication for pissing passengers off.

Alaska CEO Tilden talks about airline, surviving mega-carrier competition

Alaska Airlines CEO Brad Tilden was keynote at the Pacific Northwest Aerospace Alliance Day One conference Feb. 4. He spoke about the airline’s transformation into a carrier that survived without filing for bankruptcy; and against Delta Air Lines’ latest competition in Seattle.

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Odds and Ends: Looking ahead in 2014; Boeing letter to Machinists; TWA retro choice; Screw it, let’s do it on Virgin [plane]

Looking ahead in 2014: We wrote this outlook for 2014 for CNN International Travel.  More seats, more fees, quieter year.

IAM 751 members vote Friday on the ‘777X contract.‘ Here is a letter dated December 27 from Boeing to the Machinists making the case to vote for the contract.

It is the TWA Twin Globe livery that is the clear choice by our Readers for American Airlines to select for a retro livery.

Source: Photobucket.com. Convair 880

TWA’s last livery was a distant second. (We didn’t particularly like this design.) The design should probably go on an MD-80, the derivative of the DC-9 on which the Twin Globes livery appeared.

Source: Ed Coats Collection. Douglas DC-9-15.

Which TWA livery should join American Airlines’ fleet as the “heritage” airplane?

Answer Votes Percent
Boeing 707 Twin Globes Livery 944 53%  
Final Blue/Red/Gold Livery shown on Boeing 757 427 24%  
Red Stripe, Solid Tail Livery shown on Boeing 747 165 9%  
1950s Livery seen on Lockheed Constellation 158 9%  
Boeing 707 Delivery Livery (no Twin Globes) 56 3%  
Reverse Red livery shown on McDonnell Douglas MD-80 23 1%  

In other news and irreverence:

  • Today is the last day to vote in our polls concerning the IAM-Boeing ‘777X Contract.’ We’ll post the results before the machinists begin voting on Friday.
  • Aspire Aviation has a long profile on the 777X here.

Vote for the Top Commercial Aviation stories of 2013

This is self-explanatory. We’ll publish the results December 31.

Feel free to nominate other stories in Reader Comments.

Odds and Ends: Recovering WWII flying boat; Constellation restorations; Eastern Air DC-7B; Where will 787-10 be assembled?

As the holidays approach, we’re going to lighten up a bit and provide some links to feature stories. There continues to be news, of course, and a couple of items are in this post. But enjoy the break.

Recovering WWII Flying Boat: A World War II Sunderland Flying Boat has been recovered from the waters and is set for restoration. Here is the story.

Lockheed Constellation: The Airline History Museum in Kansas City is raising money to return to flying status a previously restored Lockheed Constellation. Officials want to recreate the history-making trans-continental flight of Howard Hughes and Jack Frye in April. Lufthansa Airlines continues work on restoring a 1649 model, which would be the only such Connie to be returned to airworthy condition. Here is a website detailing this effort as far as we could determine.  Here is a website that talks about surviving Connies with some data about the LH program. It’s out of date, having predicted a first flight this year.

Eastern Airlines DC-7B: N836D still sits at the Charlotte (NC) airport, having returned here shortly after takeoff when an engine shut down. US Airways 1549 pilots Sully Sullenberger and Jeff Skiles were on board. The airplane is owned by the Historical Flight Foundation in Miami. In May 2011 we flew on the plane from Miami to St. Maarten and back. The Foundation needs $50,000 to return the plane to Miami and $10,000/mo to keep it insured and operational for flight-seeing trips.

Back to some news:

787-10 assembly site: Overshadowed in all the hubbub surrounding the Boeing 777X is where the 787-10 will be built. Boeing launched the program at the Paris Air Show and plans a 2018 EIS. Boeing plans to increase production rates of the 787 from 10 to 12 and ultimately to 14 by the end of the decade (our information is, not without coincidence, 2018). Plans are to have Boeing’s Everett plant and the Charleston plant each producing seven per month.

The Everett plant can accommodate the 787-10, but only on a slant basis, not nose-to-tail, we’re told. Charleston will be able to do nose-to-tail.

The Charleston Post and Courier reports that a decision on the 787-10 assembly site will be made in the first quarter.

The Post and Courier Tweeted that Greensboro (NC) is off Boeing’s list now. Update: North Carolina is off the list entirely, the newspaper reports.

Odds and Ends: AirAsiaX plans A330 order; AA’s livery; vote for TWA heritage livery

AirAsiaX plans A330 order: AirAsiaX, the long-haul low cost carrier, plans a large order for the Airbus A330 this week, according to Bloomberg.

A380’s future: Bloomberg News talks about the future of the Airbus A380 with CEO Fabrice Bregier. Among his comments: no stretch anticipated until 2030.

American Airlines livery: Doug Parker, the new CEO of American Airlines, says employees will get to vote whether to keep the new American livery or restore the double AA/eagle livery to the tail. American will also add a TWA “heritage” livery airplane. US Airways has several heritage paint jobs in its fleet.

So…which TWA era would you like to see? Vote in the poll following the photos.

Read more

Odds and Ends: From EADS’ Investors’ Day; Illinois and 777X; Air Canada; LOT gets $33m from Boeing

From EADS’ Investors Day 1: Airbus parent EADS is having two days worth of briefings for aerospace analysts. Here’s initial news coverage from Day 1:

Reuters: EADS strategy stresses Airbus

Reuters: EADS IDs new dividend policy, A350 target

Illinois and 777X: Add the Prairie State to those submitting bids to Boeing for the 777X assembly site. Illinois was previously not included in any list that we saw.

Air Canada: The airline’s Board of Directors meets today to ratify staff recommendations to replace the Airbus A319/320/321 fleet. Airbus and Boeing are competing with their A320neo and 737 MAX families. This competition is said to be only for the 150-200 seat sector. A separate decision for the 100-149 seat sector is expected to come next year. Bombardier hopes to win that part of the deal.

Update, 10:30 PST: The Wall Street Journal says Air Canada and Boeing are negotiating a deal for 50 737 MAXes.

Update, 11:15am PST:

LOT gets $33m from Boeing: Reuters reports that LOT Polish Airlines will receive $33m from Boeing for the 787 problems. Payments will be in cash, the news agency says.

New American Airlines now a reality; big challenges ahead

December 6 passed without fanfare, but the New American Airlines is a reality.

The first day of stock trading, under the symbol AAL, begins today. The Ft. Worth Star-Telegram–the hometown paper of the Ft. Worth-based AA–has this story, posted Saturday. The New York Times provides this analytical piece.

We know the US Airways management team reasonably well and we think they will be much better than the former American management. American hasn’t been the same since Bob Crandall retired in 1998. Crandall’s successor, Don Carty, had a lousy tenure. He originated the acquisition of Reno Air, a small airline headquartered in Reno (NV), for reasons that passed all understanding. In doing so, he created ill will with the AA pilots union (which, in fairness, wasn’t hard to do with this bunch of malcontents), creating all sorts of labor issues. Carty also acquired Trans World Airlines, another merger of mysterious motives that appeared more to do with market share than business sense. TWA’s only US hub by this time was St. Louis (MO), a mere 250 miles from AA’s massive Chicago O’Hare hub. TWA’s fare structure was low, competing as it was with fellow-hubber Southwest Airlines and able to attract traffic on price rather than quality.

We’ll never know whether the TWA merger would have been a success. The 9/11 terrorist attacks happened shortly after the acquisition, and by 2003, American was on the ropes. Carty negotiated steep concessions from the employee unions, but the deal unraveled when it was revealed that management simultaneously lined up for tens of millions of dollars in executive bonuses. Carty was forced out in the quid pro quo to complete the concession deal.

Carty’s successor, Gerard Arpey, gained respect from the employees. Over the next few years, more concessions were sought by Arpey as he strove to keep American from following all its peers into bankruptcy. But those bankruptcies allowed all the competitors to shave pension plans, cut wages and benefits and other costs while American remained burdened with higher costs across the board. In November 2011–10 years after 9/11–American finally succumbed and filed for Chapter 11. Arpey, who disagreed with the decision, resigned and was succeeded by Tom Horton.

We were never impressed with Horton, particularly with his view that he deserved $20m in the bankruptcy restructuring. He’s non-executive chairman of American but will leave the company soon. He provided this farewell message to employees.

Doug Parker, the CEO of US Airways and America West Airlines, who engineered the merger, is the new CEO of American. Parker and his team never got the respect we think they deserved for keeping US Airways alive, profitable and competitive with perhaps the weakest route system of the US legacy airlines.

Parker was an early proponent of adopting ancillary fees, a practice passengers really don’t like. But the industry had changed dramatically and free meals, free checked baggage and other stuff of history became just that for all the airlines: history. Today, most carriers make their profits from fees and not the tickets they sell.

Parker will have challenges to bring American back into the forefront of top tier airlines. Its reputation and employee morale have been battered. US Airways continues to rank near the bottom of passenger surveys. Employee group integration at US Airways from the merger with America West continues to be difficult; now add American to the mix.

AA and US will continue to fly under separate banners and certificates for some time, following the examples of United-Continental and Delta-Northwest. Integration of reservations systems, frequent flier programs and so on will undoubtedly present huge challenges. We fully anticipate passenger disruptions, also following the pattern of the other mega-mergers.

One of the things we expect to see is an employee contest for a new livery to replace the one adopted by Tom Horton. The tail logo is just awful, though the fuselage and stylized eagle are fine. When America West and US Airways merger, Parker held an employee contest and the winner is what’s painted on the US Airways planes today. It was a good was to involve employees. Then legacy paint jobs of the predecessor airlines were added to the fleet. We have no doubt this will happen at the New American. There are plenty of aviation geek ideas for an American livery. Some may be found here. From this link, you can click through to various other sites for some pretty creative ideas. We like several of the renderings at this website. The last two are what Horton should have adopted.