Leeham News and Analysis
There's more to real news than a news release.
Leeham News and Analysis
- Boeing wants to remarket China’s airplanes. It’s costly and time consuming. April 28, 2025
- Bjorn’s Corner: Air Transport’s route to 2050. Part 19. April 25, 2025
- How good is the C929? Part 2. April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results Update: China is 10% of the backlog, with 500 in “Unidentified” April 24, 2025
- Boeing First Quarter Results: Tariffs, Return flights, $10.55bn asset sale April 23, 2025
Pontifications: Rockwell buying B/E Aerospace: getting out while the getting is good?
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 24, 2016, © Leeham Co.: An announcement Sunday by supplier Rockwell Collins (NYSE:COL) that it will acquire B/E Aerospace (NYSE: BEAV) for $6.5bn caught analysts by surprise. The price tag rises to $8.3bn when assumption of BEAV’s debt is included.
The surprise is not so much BEAV is selling itself. A few years ago, BEAV sold of one of its division and analysts since then believed an exit strategy was underway for the principal owners of the company.
The surprise is that the buyer is Rockwell, a supplier that has little in common with BEAV. A slide from Rockwell’s own investor presentation Sunday illustrates the point.
Rockwell will have an investors’ call Monday at 0830 EDT to further explain the merger.
Seventeen new, derivative aircraft to see EIS through 2020
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Introduction
Delivery of the first Bombardier CS300, to AirBaltic, next week kicks off entry-into-service for 17 airplanes through 2020. Bombardier photo.
Oct. 20, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The past decade was a hive of activity as the Big Four OEMs launched new airplane programs and put the aircraft into service.
Airbus launched the A320neo, A330neo and A350 families. The A330neo is under production; the other two entered service early this year.
Boeing launched the 787 in late 2003 (outside the decade mark), rolled it out in 2007 and entered service with it in 2013. The 737 MAX was launched in 2011 and is in flight testing. The 777X was launched in 2013; components are in production.
Bombardier launched the CSeries in 2008; it entered service this year, after three years of delays.
Embraer launched the E-Jet E2 om 2013. Flight testing began this year.
New Entrants
These were supplemented by new entrants into commercial aviation: COMAC with its C919; Irkut with the MC-21; and Mitsubishi with the MRJ90. Of these, only the MRJ90 is flying. After more than two years of delays and several false starts, flight testing began in earnest this week at Moses Lake (WA) with FTA-1 (Flight Test Aircraft 1).
Development and new program launches have slowed, but the next decade is hardly going to be idle.
Summary
- Seventeen new aircraft or derivatives are scheduled to enter service through 2020.
- Five potential derivatives might see EIS through the same period.
- Three to five new or potential derivative aircraft might see EIS 2021-2025.
From zero to 10,000 in 50 years; can COMAC duplicate this achievement?
By Bjorn Fehrm
October 19, 2016, ©. Leeham Co: Airbus delivered its 10,000 aircraft last week (Figure 1), an A350-900 delivered to Singapore Airlines.
Delivering the 10,000 aircraft after 50 years of start of project is impressive, especially as the competition, Boeing Commercial Airplanes (BCA), the late McDonnell Douglas Corp and Lockheed Co, fought Airbus every step of the way.
Figure 1. Airbus 10,000th aircraft for Singapore Airlines. Source: Airbus.
We have a new player starting its 50 years, Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China, COMAC. It’s on its eighth year and the competitions’ sentiments are: “It will take long before they can compete, decades!”
Let’s compare with the rise of Airbus and see what can be learned. Will COMAC deliver its 10,000th aircraft in 50 years? Or in a shorter time? Read more
How Boeing is working to convert Qatar’s MAX LOI into a firm order
Boeing 737-8. Boeing photo.
Oct. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s only a Letter of Intent, the agreement between Boeing and Qatar Airways for up to 60 737-8s.
Qatar announced the LOI two weeks ago because its CEO, the notoriously fickle Akbar Al-Baker, is royally pissed at Airbus over delays for the A320neo. Qatar was the launch customer for the airplane, ordering 50. Citing issues and delays with the Pratt & Whitney GTF engines, and other unspecified problems, Al-Baker refused to take delivery of four of the first aircraft.
He repeatedly threatened to drop the A320 order altogether, but then at the press conference announcing the LOI (along with other Boeing orders), he said he doesn’t walk from contracts.
Forget for the moment the contradiction.
Here’s how Boeing is working to convert the LOI into a firm order.
Pontifications: A good week for Boeing wide-bodies
By Scott Hamilton
Oct. 17, 2016, © Leeham Co.: Boeing had a very good week for wide-body orders last week. It recorded 42 orders for the 787 and 10 for the 777-300ER.
Thirty of the former and all of the latter came from Qatar Airways. There were 12 787 orders from “Unidentified,” which in this case was from China Southern Airlines. These were announced Wednesday but too late to show up on the weekly orders update posted Thursday.
787 Book:Bill
For the year, Boeing has 61 net orders for the 787, a healthy increase since the end of June, when the book-to-bill was a paltry 0.25 YTD. Even at 61, this is still a book:bill of just 0.42 for the 787, which has not had a book:bill of more than one since 2013. This means Boeing continues to burn off the backlog faster than it is booking new orders.
But it’s welcome news nevertheless in a year when there has been a dearth of wide-body orders.
Read more
Peeking into Boeing’s future airplanes
Oct. 18, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It was a rare look into potential future airplanes and passenger experience by Boeing, which is known for keeping these topics close to
Mike Sinnett, VP Product Development for Boeing. Taking 787 technologies and enhancing them for future airplanes. Photo via Google images.
its chest.
Mike Sinnett, VP of Product Development for Boeing Commercial Airplanes, last week gave an audience of nearly 250 people attending the annual Governor’s Conference organized by the Aerospace Futures Alliance, a look at some of the concepts Boeing is studying. Some may evolve into actual products and some may not, he said.
Airbus, Boeing agree on NMA–for now
One concept of the middle of the market airplane.
Oct. 12, 2016, © Leeham Co.: It’s rare when Airbus and Boeing agree on product strategy, but officials of the two companies seemed in almost perfect alignment in separate interviews by LNC last week.
Barry Eccleston, president of Airbus Americas, and Mike Sinnett, VP of Product Strategy for Boeing, each said there is no consensus yet among customers for the Middle of the Market airplane (MOMA), also known as the New Mid-range Airplane (NMA) at Boeing.
Eccleston was interviewed on the sidelines of the annual Seattle conference organized by the British American Business Council Pacific Northwest. Sinnett was interviewed on the sidelines of the annual Governor’s Conference organized by the Aerospace Futures Alliance, a lobbying group in Washington State.
11th 737 MAX on the assembly line as Boeing gears up for delivery next year
Oct. 11, 2016, © Leeham Co.: The 11th 737-8 MAX is already on the Boeing production line at the factory in Renton (WA).
Southwest Airlines will receive the first 737 MAX next year. Boeing photo.
This one is for Lion Air, the Indonesian Low Cost Carrier that’s ordered 201 of the airplanes.
Previous 737-8s that already are built are also for LCCs Southwest Airlines of the USA.
The initial line up of customers scheduled to receive the MAXes next year is in stark contrast to decades ago when the names on the sides of the airplanes would be American, United, Lufthansa or Japan Air Lines. It’s illustrative to the changing airline industry.